Winter is back to normal

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on January 26, 2007

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Winter is back to normal across most of the Northern Hemisphere this week, as Europe finally got its first major snowstorm and cold air outbreak. A powerful low pressure system swept across Europe this week, causing numerous flight delays and traffic accidents across Germany, France, and Austria. About 5,000 vehicles were stranded in eastern France when the A6 motorway was cut off by snow. Over 200 police and firefighters were sent to help stranded motorists. Over a meter of snow fell in the Alps, bringing ski areas their first decent snows this winter. London got their first significant snow of winter, as well.


Figure 1. The long-range forecast for February, March, and April. Image credit: Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

The 2-week forecast from the GFS model foresees a fairly normal winter pattern for the next two weeks over the Northern Hemisphere. The long-range forecast for the rest of winter and early spring (Figure 1) from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society also predicts a fairly normal weather pattern for the coming three months. Most of Europe, North America, and northern Asia are predicted to have near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Record high temperatures are most likely over portions of Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia.

Jeff Masters

Winter is here! (Jiri)
After a warm December and January, winter has finally arrived to Prague! The snow cover in Prague is now 15 cm (6 inches) and it's still snowing! For the first time this winter, you can go skiing in the city parks. In the picture, you can see the passenger train from Prague to Kladno. Unlike the motorists stuck in traffic jams, this train will arrive on time today!
Winter is here!
1st snow this winter (Derek1)
After many weeks mild weather winter has at last arrived in Geneva. Beautiful but treacherous!
1st snow this winter

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140. N3EG
7:17 PM PST on January 27, 2007
For whoever wanted a good winter weather blog (at least for the Pacific NW) try here.
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139. Patrap
8:13 PM CST on January 27, 2007
Heads Up Fla..Panama City...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
138. lightning10
12:24 AM GMT on January 28, 2007
With that first band of rain I didnt think it would hold together this far inland anways. The reason the air is so dry. The next band and any bands aver that should hold together better.

Whenever the rain moves this slow and the air below is this dry I never get much since I am so far inland.
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137. anvilhead2
12:01 AM GMT on January 28, 2007
Next band for me coming soon
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136. HIEXPRESS
11:43 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
Thanks WG03
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135. LowerCal
3:39 PM PST on January 27, 2007
It just missed ya lightning10! Los Angeles Area Radar Hopefully the next one won't.
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134. lightning10
11:24 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
Man this is unreal. Again Orange county and Southern LA county gets nothing from the band of rain.
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132. weatherguy03
5:49 PM EST on January 27, 2007
BTW, postive PNA and negative NAO give the Deep South the best chances of frozen wintry precip. We have that right now. Maybe this week?
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131. hurricane23
5:50 PM EST on January 27, 2007
Incredibly horrible times for florida hopefully times like these are a thing of the past.

83 major hurricanes hit the united states 1944-1969.(23 hit the U.S./12 hit florida.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
130. weatherguy03
5:43 PM EST on January 27, 2007
NAO Negative Forecasted to move towards postitive again as we move into February.
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129. HIEXPRESS
10:25 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
Hey, Doc & Saturday blog crew. Break at work.
Will Daytona/Speedweeks Cup races get rained on? Clear & cold is good, the wind isn't as big a factor as it was when the speeds were 210+ on the track. Looks like a lock for rain on the 24 Hours of Daytona going on now. BTW - What's the NAO doing now? Links?
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128. hurricane23
5:34 PM EST on January 27, 2007
For those who dont understand how the MJO works here are 2 links that will help alot.

1.Madden-Julian Oscillation
2.Another MJO page
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
127. hurricane23
5:20 PM EST on January 27, 2007
Hopefully that green will stay out of the basin come cane season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
126. Skyepony (Mod)
10:17 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
Looking at the MJO...


The green lines are positive areas, tend to be stormer, contributes to tropical as well as winter storms. The brown line areas are negative, more stable, doesn't discount rain, just lessens the chance of severe weather. The other colors.. blue through red is like looking at an IR satalite.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
125. Skyepony (Mod)
10:08 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
Agreed 23, looks like we pobibly won't have the inhibiting factor of El Niņo. Though it's possible Neutral could rule the season too. And all the other factors well, it's really to hard to tell this far out.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
124. hurricane23
4:40 PM EST on January 27, 2007
El nino in my opinion is just about gone if not already dead.A moderate La nina is quite possible for the 2007 hurricane season but right now its a wait and see situation to see how all this developes.

I will say this there are alot of other issues that will still be pending for this upcoming season...

For example how will the dust factor be around the basin?What kind of steering pattern will be in place?Alot of questions that wont be answered for the next couple of months.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
123. Skyepony (Mod)
7:54 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
NOAA SEEKS INPUT ON OCEAN FISHERIES RESEARCH PLAN
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
122. catastropheadjuster
7:37 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
Wanted to say hello to everyone. Well Dauphin Island having it's Mardi Gras Parade to day and it's the Senior Bowl today here in Mobile,Alabama
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121. lightning10
6:45 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
A bit of a shock today. The GFS has been switching a lot between dry/wet for the forcast this weekend and into next week. Today it takes a wet. Showing between today and Thursday anywhere from trace-2.00 inches. Depending on location and how this all pans out. Still a lot of uncertainty out there. It even showed the so far none exsistant Southern Jet kicking up and helping Tuesday storm. Should be interesting to see what comes from this.

Not to get to excited cause it also looks like after Thursday another storng dry Santa Ana wind behind the storms.
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120. Skyepony (Mod)
6:26 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
Miamiweather~ El Niņo has grown weaker & weaker. Now near nuetral & in my opinion headed that way soon, but technecally right now it's still El Niņo.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
118. Miamiweather
5:48 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
hey guys I have a quick question does this mean that el nino pattern is gone
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117. Tazmanian
8:47 AM PST on January 27, 2007
pat stop posting your mail on her no one wants to see it and stop posting thing about STL its not nic

evere one if you see pat post his mail on her that talks about STL this SPAM it its not nic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
115. weatherboykris
2:33 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
me too.I missed most of the busiest part.Was there at the start and the finish.Taz missed the busiest part,too.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
114. ryang
10:31 AM AST on January 27, 2007
I was at Taz Party.At intervals.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
113. weatherboykris
2:22 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
did you go to Taz's party?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
112. ryang
10:08 AM AST on January 27, 2007
hey ryang.You seen my blog

I don't think so.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
110. weatherboykris
2:01 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
hey ryang.You seen my blog?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
109. ryang
9:59 AM AST on January 27, 2007
Morning.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
108. weatherboykris
2:00 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
LOL,your funny pat
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
104. weatherboykris
1:59 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
good morning
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
103. weatherboykris
1:58 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
hey patrap
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
99. IKE
7:50 AM CST on January 27, 2007
And I bought some cheese hot dogs to eat on this weekend...just killed that desire.

STL needs a mellow pill or a bong to hit on...just chill STL....it's a cyber space blog.
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97. ricderr
1:49 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
makes me damn glad i gaave up meat products
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20151
91. Patrap
7:29 AM CST on January 27, 2007
Mo. weather link...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
90. ricderr
1:27 PM GMT on January 27, 2007
THE GIFTS OF MARI
by Lucirina Telor Vevan

Between the cold raindrops,
the warm tears hide, cowering.
Inside the fires of passion
the numbness of fear chills us.
Amidst the smell of new-born roses
the smell of decay and death lingers.
In each dawn,
A night dies.
In each twilight,
a day agonises.
For each life
there is a death.
For each smile,
a tear.

For each dream
there is awakening.
In each greeting
there is a farewell.
In a single kiss
beats lie hidden.
Behind the smiles
Awaits the grimace of anger
to transform happiness
into grieving.

Misunderstood, loathed,
Mari's hand touches us all.
Cursed, blessed her gifts.
She gives us joys and griefs.
Peace, then pains of war.
Love, then the cold touch of hatred.
Happiness, then the numbness of sorrow.
But she also gives
The caress, after the strikes.
The kiss, after the absence.
Silence, after the deafening sounds.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20151

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.