Winter is back to normal

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on January 26, 2007

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Winter is back to normal across most of the Northern Hemisphere this week, as Europe finally got its first major snowstorm and cold air outbreak. A powerful low pressure system swept across Europe this week, causing numerous flight delays and traffic accidents across Germany, France, and Austria. About 5,000 vehicles were stranded in eastern France when the A6 motorway was cut off by snow. Over 200 police and firefighters were sent to help stranded motorists. Over a meter of snow fell in the Alps, bringing ski areas their first decent snows this winter. London got their first significant snow of winter, as well.


Figure 1. The long-range forecast for February, March, and April. Image credit: Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

The 2-week forecast from the GFS model foresees a fairly normal winter pattern for the next two weeks over the Northern Hemisphere. The long-range forecast for the rest of winter and early spring (Figure 1) from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society also predicts a fairly normal weather pattern for the coming three months. Most of Europe, North America, and northern Asia are predicted to have near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Record high temperatures are most likely over portions of Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia.

Jeff Masters

Winter is here! (Jiri)
After a warm December and January, winter has finally arrived to Prague! The snow cover in Prague is now 15 cm (6 inches) and it's still snowing! For the first time this winter, you can go skiing in the city parks. In the picture, you can see the passenger train from Prague to Kladno. Unlike the motorists stuck in traffic jams, this train will arrive on time today!
Winter is here!
1st snow this winter (Derek1)
After many weeks mild weather winter has at last arrived in Geneva. Beautiful but treacherous!
1st snow this winter

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190. pottery
1:14 PM AST on January 28, 2007
Atlantic SST has cooled off nicely. There are strong NE trades now, and the sea is 6 ft chop everywhere. Keeping things here in the low 80's but very pleasant. Long may it last.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
189. weatherboykris
5:17 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
The high will be right on top of the Sunhine State on Monday night.Excellent radiational cooling conditions.If winds are calm,then temps drop 20-30 degrees from daytime highs.That means places in the low 60s will be in the 30s if winds are calm.Here is from Texas A&M online tutorials:

FORECASTING TECHNIQUE: How will the wind affect the nighttime temperature?
Unless a cold front or some other major weather feature is coming through, you should forecast minimum temperatures by estimating the amount of nighttime cooling and subtracting that number from the previous maximum temperature.

For example, suppose a given station cools 25 F under ideal conditions. If the daytime high was 75 F, the nighttime low would be expected to be 50 F.

Although I have given some rough rules for which stations are most susceptible to temperature inversions, every station is different, and the best way to predict how much the temperature will cool under given wind conditions is by using experience. Check back to a previous night with similar conditions. How much did it cool then? If you can't find a matching day, you can still sometimes get a good sense of what might happen from a station's recent weather history.

Building up some experience on how much a station cools at night is one of the main reasons for watching a station's weather one or two weeks before one has to forecast for it.

For some very vague guidelines, which I wouldn't even follow because they vary so much from station to station, try this:

Calm conditions: temperature will drop 20-30 F from the afternoon high to the overnight low.

Light to moderate winds: temperature will drop 15-20 F from the afternoon high to the overnight low.

Strong winds: temperature will drop 10-15 F from the afternoon high to the overnight low.

Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
188. Drakoen
5:10 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
yea. a front is gonna come through then another front to reinforce the cold. Daytime high temperature should be in the mid to low 60s and dramatically dropping of by night.
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187. weatherboykris
5:10 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 4:31 PM GMT on January 28, 2007.

Good afternoon everyone,

Posting from work...

Very cool temps instore for south florida in the next 2 days with windchill readings in the upper 30's in some locations.Back later


Try upper 30s in most locations as actual lows.And the rest of the SE is no warmer.Also,with the calm winds,practically all of FL and the SE could see frost.
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186. pottery
1:07 PM AST on January 28, 2007
Sounds good, Drakoen. Why is that ? wind from the North ?
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185. Drakoen
5:02 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
i'm on. Can't wait for the cool down in florida. Wunderground is projecting an over night low of 35 where i live. The wind will make it fell even colder than that. Right now conditions are windy and in the seventies.
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184. pottery
1:00 PM AST on January 28, 2007
I'm sort of " on "
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183. pottery
12:57 PM AST on January 28, 2007
Noboddy at all... Hi storm2.
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182. Thunderstorm2
4:50 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Is anyone on?
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181. hurricane23
4:26 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Good afternoon everyone,

Posting from work...

Very cool temps instore for south florida in the next 2 days with windchill readings in the upper 30's in some locations.Back later

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
180. Tazmanian
8:23 AM PST on January 28, 2007
odd the loop currents site seem to be off line or it may be this me i was going to see how are little loop eddys are doing in the Caribbean
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
179. Patrap
10:13 AM CST on January 28, 2007
Tops brightening and good overall infow..Synoptic view is Good for development there it seems.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
178. Skyepony (Mod)
4:06 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
How about a colorful quickscat of 99S


I see some 40kt vectors over the recent blow up in the middle.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
177. Patrap
9:57 AM CST on January 28, 2007
"I bear no Shame..for I am WUBA." Author Unknown
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176. Patrap
9:50 AM CST on January 28, 2007
I like da colors from those Years Skye..LOL
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175. Skyepony (Mod)
3:43 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Pottery~ don't fret the hole this morning, it only open during the Antartic winter. It pretty much closed the 1st week in December as it is summer down there now.

Shame Patrap for posting such out useless & out of date, off topic stuff...'01 & '02?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
174. Patrap
9:45 AM CST on January 28, 2007
GFS is Like a Bag Lunch I say..LOL.And Agree.Itsa been a lil Strong on the Progs Id say.Even the GFSx is giving dire stuff.Link
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173. weatherboykris
3:43 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
I think it went,Pat.
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172. Skyepony (Mod)
3:40 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Patrap~ at times a model just seems to pick up the habit of lying for a while & the gfs seems on a good trip of it lately (or has it picked up a crack habit as some have claimed), even the local NWS guys are looking elsewhere.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
171. Patrap
9:41 AM CST on January 28, 2007
try now.Im cowed to two systems right now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
170. weatherboykris
3:40 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
TO: weatherboykris
DATE: 2007-01-28 15:40:21 (3:40 PM GMT)
SUBJECT: BLOCKED MESSAGE: Re: Severe Blog
Sorry but Patrap is blocking your messages.

Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
169. pottery
11:39 AM AST on January 28, 2007
The ozone hole I meant, Pat.
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168. weatherboykris
3:39 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
check it
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167. weatherboykris
3:39 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
It said you did.
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166. Patrap
9:39 AM CST on January 28, 2007
I have no blocks on anything Kris...
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165. pottery
11:35 AM AST on January 28, 2007
You should avoid posting such gloomy facts on a nice morning Pat. Brings me back to reality.And I was so enjoying the innocence of the moment. We can run but we cant hide. Oh well...........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
164. Patrap
9:37 AM CST on January 28, 2007
But we got a good 1"plus here and many like Doc ..got more to my SW.Was a Wet but timid Low.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
163. weatherboykris
3:38 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Pat,unblock my mail.I'm trying to write back.
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162. Patrap
9:36 AM CST on January 28, 2007
Well Skye..I take the Pragmatic views on the Models.Models = truthiness at best..
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161. Skyepony (Mod)
3:27 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Thanks ricderr looks like we have some areas of questionable air quality out west this morning.

Gfs lied yesterday, glad I stuck with the canadian Gem, got near a 1/2 inch of rain lastnight:)

99S still chugging along~ 30kts 1000mb, could be named at anytime.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
160. ricderr
3:31 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
and thus ends another episode of "queer eye for the weather guy" ...and another dreary blog turned colorful....time to celebrate at the church of soccer....until our next episode...please visit our sponsor..weather depot...home of all your graphs and color weather needs
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159. Patrap
9:31 AM CST on January 28, 2007
Big Kahuna Global Views of a Shrinking Hole in Anartica
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158. pottery
11:26 AM AST on January 28, 2007
Yeah, VERY local.... My yard only.Most of the time the poor kids get to go to the Mall....
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157. ricderr
3:31 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
beware..this is what the boogeyman looks like......



d
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156. Patrap
9:29 AM CST on January 28, 2007
er..Ozone Holes in Color ..5
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155. ricderr
3:26 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
...whew..we're good on the ozone laayer here in the WPB area...i was concerned....






West Palm Beach
CURRENT AIR QUALITY
CONDITIONS
Sunday
January 28, 2007 TODAY'S
FORECAST
Sunday
January 28, 2007 TOMORROW'S
FORECAST
Monday
January 29, 2007
Ozone AQI observed at 09:00 EST: 17

current conditions map
yesterday's summary
month's archives

Primary Pollutant
Health Message: No health impacts are expected in this range.
Forecast Not Available
*Tomorrow's forecast is generally available by 4:15 pm EDT.

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154. Patrap
9:27 AM CST on January 28, 2007
thanks ric..it was a lil dull grey in Here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
153. ricderr
3:25 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
what..no graphs..what's the good dr's blog without posts of useless informational graphics.......let me attend to this problem..



d
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152. Patrap
9:24 AM CST on January 28, 2007
Sounds a lil like Louisiana pottery.A local custom I presume?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
151. pottery
3:23 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Its a nice one here too. no sign of the dreaded dust this morning.Planning to attend a birthday party later. 10 little guys around 9 years old in a swamp bird santuary. Should be fun ??!!!!! The one that sees the most birds gets thrown overboard to feed the cayman...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
150. Patrap
3:18 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Itsa cold here..but Sunny now.Nicer day for sure Pottery.Hows you ?
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149. pottery
3:16 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Some cool after the rains, Pat ?
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148. pottery
3:12 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Good Sunday Morning to you, and you too........
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147. Patrap
3:07 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
The GFSx keeping the cold Pattern in Place thru the 7th..Link
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146. Patrap
2:17 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Clearing here..coolerLink
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145. Patrap
2:16 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Cant seem to find a Graph here today?
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144. Patrap
2:15 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
COLD..as predicted..In STL...Link
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143. Inyo
9:19 AM GMT on January 28, 2007
lightning, its literally been raining almost constantly since at least 7 AM in Ventura, we've had well over an inch and the rain band still isnt moving.
The rain is moderate now but most of the day it was light.. perfect drought-busting rain. It is expected to continue for at least another 24 hours and 'might' spread east. by the time this storm is done ventura county will probably have had several inches and the hills can finally turn green again.


the long term gfs has been flip flopping on more big storms after 8 or 9 days, but it hasnt been worth much that far out so.. we'll have to wait and see
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142. Skyepony (Mod)
6:07 AM GMT on January 28, 2007
99S looks to be pulling it together.

Yes Patrap slight tornado chance in FL tonight.
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141. LowerCal
4:02 AM GMT on January 28, 2007
Another good West Coast weather blog.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9211
140. N3EG
3:18 AM GMT on January 28, 2007
For whoever wanted a good winter weather blog (at least for the Pacific NW) try here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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