Winter is back to normal

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on January 26, 2007

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Winter is back to normal across most of the Northern Hemisphere this week, as Europe finally got its first major snowstorm and cold air outbreak. A powerful low pressure system swept across Europe this week, causing numerous flight delays and traffic accidents across Germany, France, and Austria. About 5,000 vehicles were stranded in eastern France when the A6 motorway was cut off by snow. Over 200 police and firefighters were sent to help stranded motorists. Over a meter of snow fell in the Alps, bringing ski areas their first decent snows this winter. London got their first significant snow of winter, as well.


Figure 1. The long-range forecast for February, March, and April. Image credit: Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

The 2-week forecast from the GFS model foresees a fairly normal winter pattern for the next two weeks over the Northern Hemisphere. The long-range forecast for the rest of winter and early spring (Figure 1) from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society also predicts a fairly normal weather pattern for the coming three months. Most of Europe, North America, and northern Asia are predicted to have near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Record high temperatures are most likely over portions of Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia.

Jeff Masters

Winter is here! (Jiri)
After a warm December and January, winter has finally arrived to Prague! The snow cover in Prague is now 15 cm (6 inches) and it's still snowing! For the first time this winter, you can go skiing in the city parks. In the picture, you can see the passenger train from Prague to Kladno. Unlike the motorists stuck in traffic jams, this train will arrive on time today!
Winter is here!
1st snow this winter (Derek1)
After many weeks mild weather winter has at last arrived in Geneva. Beautiful but treacherous!
1st snow this winter

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290. dmthieme
7:12 PM GMT on February 03, 2007
I would take issue with your equating an "expert judgment" with a "theory." Theory is what is used to develop the computer forecast models and the general circulation models. Some experts like Judith Curry and Kerry Emmanuel do hypothesize a connection between sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone intensity. The theory has not really been developed to the point where we can model the relationship, however. For that matter, we cannot really model individual storms with the large grid cells in most of the GCMs.
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289. Tazmanian
9:12 PM PST on January 28, 2007
i think El Nino will be gone in monday update and we may have Neutral now but will wait in tell mondays update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
288. Skyepony (Mod)
5:09 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
I thought it was interesting. Guess it doesn't help drought frustrations after this tease none.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
287. Skyepony (Mod)
5:06 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
Taz~ it's an indicator. We are still in El Nino, it just says don't be suprised if it's Neutral in 30 days.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
286. Tazmanian
9:00 PM PST on January 28, 2007
wish means what??? do we have neutral conditions or do we now have La Nina conditions or this about???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
285. lightning10
8:55 PM PST on January 28, 2007
Ya I did read it. I know cut off lows are very hard to predict. Its just been so dry here and when it looked so good for rain earlyer in the day and nothing comes of it its disapointing just like all of winter so far.

There is a lot of moisture in the air but at the surface its a different story. Due Points are in the low to mid 40's. Humidity is much higher then it was earlyer but still around 60-80% in the valley areas.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
283. Tazmanian
8:54 PM PST on January 28, 2007
sky what do you mean by this????

realized the ENSO precipitation index has gone negative, signalling ENSO gone cold
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
282. Skyepony (Mod)
4:44 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
lightning10 here's all sorts of Satalite of that. Did you read latest west Coast blog about the blocking Rex & how hard it is to forecasts those cut off lows? Good stuff there.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
281. lightning10
8:39 PM PST on January 28, 2007
Cut off low VS Dry air down here in So Cal. Dry air has won the battle. At one time there was an 80% chance of rain today. Doesnt look like anyone south of LA got rain today.
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280. hurricane23
11:37 PM EST on January 28, 2007
One more image...


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279. Skyepony (Mod)
4:35 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
This one is 3 hrs newer & gives a good referance to it's spot on the glodal. Been heading south, forecasted to continue that way. Luckly, it doesn't look headed for the flooded out S Africa.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
278. Patrap
10:32 PM CST on January 28, 2007
7
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277. hurricane23
11:30 PM EST on January 28, 2007
Time will tell if the CMC is correct...More Here


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276. Tazmanian
8:24 PM PST on January 28, 2007
the Heat Potential in the Caribbean seem to be geting a little higher evere day
looool
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275. Skyepony (Mod)
4:16 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
That article I posted easlier got me looking at 30 day rain averages & anomilies on Trmm for S Afica & the globe.

Scrolled down a little & realized the ENSO precipitation index has gone negative, signalling ENSO gone cold. Comparing it to the not updated bimonthly, it took a dive.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
274. Skyepony (Mod)
4:13 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
23~Had neat clouds here too today.

Michael~ Just makes it all the more fun to watch..
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271. Tazmanian
8:05 PM PST on January 28, 2007
i see may be 3 looop eddys in the gulf this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
270. hurricane23
11:05 PM EST on January 28, 2007
Took a pic off skys over my house earlier this evening before the sun went down as the cool air was begining to spill in.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
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269. Skyepony (Mod)
4:01 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
The loop in the EP looks the worst.

Noname there, looks alot like the other storms that have formed in that area this year.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
267. Tazmanian
7:58 PM PST on January 28, 2007
i see loop eddys in the Caribbean do you see the same thing??? and i see a few eddy starting to pop up in the gulf

lol
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266. hurricane23
10:50 PM EST on January 28, 2007
Indeed skyepony but thankfully not a threat right now to land.Track

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
265. Skyepony (Mod)
2:33 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
99S is now 10S NONAME ~40kts, 994mbs


new invest alert~93S


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
264. HCW
2:26 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
Setup is there that we could see a storm just like this over the next 2 weeks

2001-2002 snow storm


http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Link
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263. Skyepony (Mod)
1:26 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
Freezing Child

SCOTLAND is on the brink of a power crisis after an accident at one of the country's biggest electricity plants massively reduced supplies to the national grid.

Thousands Still Without Power in Okla.


Torrential rain and flash floods this week wreaked havoc in Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi, leaving 81 Angolans and five Mozambicans dead.

In Mozambique, 3 500 people are reported to have been without shelter earlier this week, in Angola 1 300 families have lost their homes, and in Malawi 20 villages are still under water.

(Video) Tesla Roadster Demonstration

Vast petroleum reserves in the Arctic are a key source of world energy, but development must also protect the fragile cold-weather environment and curb greenhouse gases, Norway’s oil minister said Monday.

The International Energy Agency estimates that carbon capture and storage could contribute 20 to 28 percent of total emission reductions by 2050.


& homeless shelters are open about everywhere, from Florida on north.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
262. wfreeck
7:42 PM EST on January 28, 2007
ty skyepony.
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261. Skyepony (Mod)
12:29 AM GMT on January 29, 2007
wfreek~ Here's your pile up.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
259. Thunderstorm2
10:13 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
I got to go take care of other things. Bye
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258. wfreeck
5:06 PM EST on January 28, 2007
This is defeinetly what a typical Michigan winter should be like

"How does snow rates 1-2 inches per hour with nearly 2 inches accumulating along with white out conditions and 70 car pile ups sound in Detroit?"

Quoted by me.
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257. ryang
5:57 PM AST on January 28, 2007
I will be back later.
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256. Thunderstorm2
9:52 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Your favourite from WEST INDIES.

oh sorry didn't understand. I don't really know because i only watch cricket if England are playing and if they are going to loose so i don't know about the West Indies players
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255. Patrap
3:50 PM CST on January 28, 2007
Lake Ponchatrain view, Causeway Bridge. Link
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254. ryang
5:48 PM AST on January 28, 2007
Shane Warne is retires so does he count?


Your favourite from WEST INDIES.
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253. Patrap
3:45 PM CST on January 28, 2007
LaBranch Buoy Data..Link
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252. Patrap
3:44 PM CST on January 28, 2007
RU cool..GOM..Link
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251. Thunderstorm2
9:43 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Who is your favourite cricketer?

Shane Warne is retires so does he count?
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250. Thunderstorm2
9:42 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Whats up kris?
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249. weatherboykris
9:39 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
updated my blog with info on sounding diagrams.model meteograms to come.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
248. ryang
5:34 PM AST on January 28, 2007
I love him.
Who is your favourite cricketer?
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247. Thunderstorm2
9:32 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Do you like chris gayle.

He's alright but im not a big fan. Do you like him?
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246. Thunderstorm2
9:31 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
i had to put about 5 covers over me.
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245. ryang
5:31 PM AST on January 28, 2007
The cricketer from WEST INDIES.
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244. ryang
5:31 PM AST on January 28, 2007
Do you like chris gayle.
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243. ryang
5:30 PM AST on January 28, 2007
I've already survived one of these with no heating

Not me.
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242. Thunderstorm2
9:26 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
Statement as of 2:29 PM EST on January 28, 2007


... Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 3 am to 10 am EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a Wind Chill
Advisory... which is in effect from 3 am to 10 am EST Monday.

Reinforcing cold air will overspread the area tonight. Gusty
northwest winds will combine with temperatures falling into the
mid 30s to lower 40s to produce unseasonably cold wind chill
readings late tonight and early Monday morning. Lowest wind chill
temperatures will range from the upper 20s in North Lake and
Volusia counties to the mid 30s in Osceola and southern Brevard
counties.

If you use a space heater... be sure to keep them away from
blankets... pillows... curtains or other combustible material.

I've already survived one of these with no heating.
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241. Thunderstorm2
9:23 PM GMT on January 28, 2007
your welcome
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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