Good news for the 2007 hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on January 22, 2007

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There's plenty of hurricane-related news to report from last week's annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in San Antonio, Texas. The best news is that the Air Force Hurricane Hunter C-130 aircraft are expected to get a major upgrade of their instrumentation for the 2007 season, thanks to $10.5 million in supplemental funding approved by Congress in December 2004. At least four Air Force C-130 aircraft will receive new Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) instruments. The first SFMR-equipped Air Force C-130 is scheduled to be on-line in June. The SFMR (or "Smurf") is able to directly measure the wind speed at the ocean surface. The instrument has been flown operationally by NOAA's two P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft since 1999, and has repeatedly provided crucial estimates of the landfall intensity of numerous hurricanes, particularly during the ferocious hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. The SFMR works by studying the brightness of the surface at microwave wavelengths. Strong winds kick up sea spray that makes the ocean white with large foam patches. The amount of microwave energy seen by the instrument is proportional to the whiteness of the ocean surface, and therefore the wind speed. This measurement of the surface winds is far more accurate than trying to infer the surface winds from winds measured at flight level. For example, as Hurricane Katrina approached landfall in 2005, the winds measured at flight level (10,000 feet) stayed roughly constant, while the surface winds fell from Category 5 to Category 3 speeds as the hurricane weakened. The SFMR correctly diagnosed Katrina's sudden weakening at landfall, enabling NHC to issue more accurate advisories.

NOAA's two P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft have flown the SFMR instrument since the late 1980's, so we have a lot of calibration data that has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of these wind measurements. Comparison of SFMR winds with dropsonde and buoy measurements in hurricanes have shown that the SFMR winds are in error by less than 8 mph about 50% of the time. Thus, we can estimate the surface winds in a hurricane to an accuracy of about 10% using the SFMR.

The SFMR instrument requires about 10 seconds to make a measurement. At the typical flight speed of a C-130 or P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft, the winds are effectively averaged over about 1.5 km along the flight track. According to Uhlhorn and Black (2003), the SFMR instrument underestimates the winds in the right-rear quadrant of northern hemisphere storms. This occurs because the wind is aligned with the direction the waves propagate, resulting in building waves that do not produce very large foam patches in their wake after breaking.

Other hurricane news
Another piece of good news this hurricane season--both of NOAA's P-3 aircraft will both be available for hurricane duty. Last year, only one of these aircraft was available. A third P-3 is on order and due to be operational by 2009, but the latest budget has no money to crew the aircraft. There's other bad news to report on funding for hurricane research, which I'll report in a later blog.

Jeff Masters

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349. hurricane23
2:50 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
Yea its been a very mild winter down here across south florida with only one really significant cold that dropped our temps into the mid 40's that was about 4-6 weeks ago if iam correct.We really need some cold fronts to push into the GOM to cool of SST'S across parts of the basin.I expect it will take place once we get into the first have of next month.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
348. pottery
2:49 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
It dropped down to 71 here early this morning. Freezing man !!!!!!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24788
347. pottery
2:45 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
Morning 23. Time for a blanket in Florida ? Enjoy it !


Pat, I read the Address by mr. bush too. I'm not impressed either. Where have all the leaders gone ? We need one here bad !!!!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24788
346. hurricane23
2:37 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
Good morning everyone,

No need to worry about cane season across the atlantic basin for now as we still got a good 3-4 months before we actually have our first invest.For now iam waiting on a couple of cool nights ahead for south florida as temps will dip into the mid to low 50's over night with hi temps in the low 70's.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
345. Patrap
2:35 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
I know Pottery..this one is Known.But I wont out him here.I like um to bury themselves publicly.Now Ive got the Blog a Hopping.LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
344. pottery
2:34 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
Dont bother yourself with the rectums of the world, Pat......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24788
343. pottery
2:29 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
For those that are interested, I dont have my own blog enteries because I realy cant compete weather-wise with some of you here. So I look and try to learn. I'm not studying met. sciences or anything grand, and although some of the blogs are pretty irrelevant to weather, I still enjoy most of them. Keep the general blog interesting, there is a lot going on here.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24788
342. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
Your post relate yer IQ..very low brow indeed..LMAO!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
339. pottery
2:22 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
some interesting comments here in the last couple of hours........
speaking of the weather, for the first time since june 06, there isnt a cloud between me and Africa. Dryseason is here big time !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24788
338. GulfChad
1:47 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
hurricanes keep the jelly fish away
336. weatherguy03
1:35 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
Boring and getting old.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
334. Patrap
1:14 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
As far as the Main Blog here goes.MAny think the world waits for there every post.Many here dont have a clue as to why we Blog.Its just there way of thinking they contribute.Its a one-upmanship forum.Thats why this H season.We ..the core members of WUBA...will blog from Specific Blogs..not the Main..during storm events.That way we can control the flows and BS.The Main is "not" the Place to disemminate Practical info in an Emergency Event.ie.landfalling Hurricanes.We dont need 12 posts of a new Advisory.We dont need Banter between Brawn.The masses need good insight and proper real-time info..not Chaos.So..Im looking forward to the challenge of a New Season..but that is many months out.So..those who think the Main is a forum for Egos and one-upmanship.Have at it.At the end of the day..its about PEOPLE..not facts..or invests or Hey..Im smarter than you!Thats all Ive got.Deal with it.Have a good day.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
333. Patrap
1:05 PM GMT on January 24, 2007
Heres the scoop of the week,month..year.Our Country has failed New Orleans and the Greater Miss Gulf Coasat.NOT 1 word of mention about the recovery and its woes .The Nations largest Natural Disaster in its History gets not 1 word from the President.Im shocked..but not surprised.He stood in Jackson Square Sept 15th 05 and told the World that the region would be made Whole.My deadline for leaving My FEMA trailer is now March 31st.What do we do?..Where do we go.No housing ..no rooms at the Inn...Im ashamed as a former American Fighting man.I watched him fly over and away from New Orleans Sept 2nd..after the storm while we struggled in the water.I have yet to quit struggling...as many here try to rebuild our lives.But last night was a Puppet show for the Masses.A last gasp from a failed Presidency.I know many dont want to hear about our continued woes here.But many listen with Baited breath..of how we can Win in Iraq..last night.How can we save Baghdad..and let a whole National region..go the way of ruin.Its a sad day..and many should look deep within their Congressional rolodexes..and voice Your Opinion..on this Travesty .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
332. Raysfan70
11:28 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
My .02 cents.
There are alot of people that only m ake one entry some make no blogs of there own. Just stay in Dr.Master's never wander.

Dr.Masters blog is no different then last winter. During the winter months it always slows down. Now during a storm it gets cranking.

many of worry about people in Harm's way. Most don't hust worry about there area. We will jump in to be there as a Comfort for those. ASk Emmy. I rode out Rita with her on the phone on the Interstate. A ride that should have taken here I believe a little more then an hour took her 16 hours. We all care.
We may not know what we are talking about fully but we try to help when and how we can.
Aqau has shown great strength over the last month being right with Rand and a few others during the storms that just went through the North and Western Gulf.

The point is we Come together when needed and are there. Not just for our own areas.

Sorry Dr.Master's.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
331. IKE
10:56 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Most people view this as a hurricane blog.

The fighting that goes on in here...jeez.....

This from this mornings Jackson, Mississippi discussionn....

"


104
fxus64 kjan 240918
afdjan


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
318 am CST Wednesday Jan 24 2007


Short term...(today through thursday)
latest satellite imagery showed the split flow pattern over the
Continental U.S....with an active southern stream of mostly middle to high clouds
with a series of embedded disturbances moving toward the region from
the southwest around a cut off low over northwest Mexico. On the
surface a 1025 mb high was centered in East Texas. Also a weak surface
low was developing over the western Gulf. Area radars were
picking up some patchy very light rain/sprinkles from an upper
disturbance moving across the region.


Isentropic lift at the 300-305 level(precip water .70 to near 1
inch) will continue for mainly this morning across mainly the
south...before it gets pushed south during the afternoon. We will be
in the right entrance region of an upper jet...which may enhance the
isentropic lift for this morning. Still expect rainfall amounts to
be rather light. With the snow/ice pack issues to the northwest and the
clouds moving overhead...have cut todays highs around 2 categories
from guidance. Yesterdays highs went about 2 categories below
guidance. So will go for highs from the lower to upper 40s.


For tonight into Thursday models try to clear out the clouds...thus
have warm highs for Thursday. With this current upper pattern will
keep the clouds around for the remainder of the short term period.
So will make an adjustment to tonights lows and will go 2 categories
below guidance for thursdays highs. Tonights lows will range from
the lower to middle 30s. Highs for Thursday will be from the middle 40s
north to the lower 50s south. Expect dry weather for the remainder of
the period. Models have the weak surface low pushing farther
south...which will keep the light rain away from the region. Meanwhile
a large upper trough over the eastern Continental U.S. Will keep the region
under cool northwest flow aloft.


As far as probability of precipitation are concern did not stray far from guidance. /17/


Long term...the extended forecast looks to a quiet one for the most
part. Medium range models agree that colder air is on the way. Both
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to show the polar vortex setting up over
the Hudson Bay region late next week with cold air streaming south
out of the Arctic. As has been the case...with good agreement b/T
the models I will base the forecast for the most part off of the GFS.
Confidence is still not very high but is increasing as the models
continue to show a cool down beginning early next week.


Thursday night through Sat morning...high pressure will remain in control
Thursday night and Friday morning before pushing off to the east Friday
evening. With clear skies...drier air and high pressure at the surface
right over the County Warning Area...Friday morning looks to be the coldest morning we
have seen since around Jan 10th. The northestern half of the County Warning Area will drop
into the 20s with the northestern 3rd in the middle 20s. During the day Friday
The Cutoff low over the SW will begin to eject to the NE but will
not likely begin to affect the region until Friday night. As for highs
Friday...ll temperatures will increase through the day and with clear skies
temperatures look to rise in the 50s once again. Clouds will be on the
increase as the upper low moves into the Southern Plains. That said
moisture will be slow to increase as the overall subtropical fetch
from the Pacific will not be great and there looks to be a wedge of
high pressure across our County Warning Area not allowing dewpoints to really
increase.


On Sat the upper low will open up and move through the lower MS
River Valley. At the same time a surface wave will develop along the
old boundary in the northern Gulf. Moisture should overrun the boundary south
of the area but the precipitable waters still look to be less than an inch. There
will be isentropic lift b/T 295 and 310k levels and this should
allow light rain to develop around midday over most of the area. The
best chance for rain will be across the south closer to the boundary.


Sun and Monday the upper pattern will flatten out while high pressure
at the surface will work into the region. This will be a Canadian
airmass bringing with it much cooler and drier conditions to the
area. By Monday morning the surface high will centered just to our west.
This will be a pretty good airmass so lows Monday morning could be the
coldest temperatures we have seen this month. Lows will be in the 20s just
about everywhere with the northestern 3rd dropping into the middle and maybe
lower 20s. Gui has dropped consistently over the past few days and
this run looks pretty good so I will only make adjustments to lower
the usual cold sites. Sun and Monday should remain dry so I have
lowered gui probability of precipitation to keep any mention of rain out of the forecast.


Tuesday and into the middle of next week one cold front after another
will move through the region. The first cold front will approach the
area Tuesday as the next disturbance moves twrds the lower and middle MS
River Valley. There will be a chance of precipitation with this
disturbance. I say precipitation b/c there is the possibility that temperatures
could remain cold enough to see flurries or even light snow across
the north. Forecast soundings across the north definitely show snow
production with the clouds well into the dendritic layer and the
entire sndg remaining below freezing until about 6-900 feet above ground level.
Latest mex does warm the north to above 40 and this would pretty much
melt everything especially since we are not expecting heavy precipitation.
That said with clouds increasing we may not warm up as much as gui
is predicting and this would allow some very light snow across the
north. Something to note though is that the GFS has showed the
opportunity for very light snow off and on for the Tuesday time frame.
Due to this shifting and the fact that even this solution is on the
fence I will hold off on adding flurries or -sn right now. As for
the rest of the week both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to show a broad
lw trough developing over much of na with very cold air surging
south through Canada. This cold air will continue into the Continental U.S. But
how far south it makes it is a serious question. The upper pattern
is actually quite flat over our region and this could cause the real
cold air to slide east of the area. Now if this airmass is able to
push far enough south then we could see some of the coldest temperatures we
have seen since we hit middle and upper teens in early Dec or even
colder than that. Either way we will still see much colder temperatures
next week and possibly well into Feb. /Cab/"



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
330. aquak9
6:19 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
I am not fighting, Taz. I have only tried to encourage StL to be the best he could be. I have made public all of my correspondence with him.

He oughtta believe in himself. We believe in him...why can't he???
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
329. Tazmanian
6:10 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
dr m you have mail good night


oh would you two stop fighting
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
328. aquak9
6:06 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Just for the record? StL slammed me. Too bad, cause I have always been a supporter of him. He'll delete the post, but it's on Rays blog, and the Queen's blog as well.

Ya'll be careful out there...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
327. aquak9
6:00 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Nice new hidden blog there, StL...but guess what. I am still old school. I can still deal with total up-frontness and honesty. Go ahead and post all the anger you want....

...and when you get bored, build a scaffold. Come up to the high road. It's where you oughtta be. Cause many of us believe...you deserve it.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
326. aquak9
5:34 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
well since StL is not accepting mail, here it is, for everyone to see:

You are probably one of the best we have right now. Lefty is gone. Stormtop is gone. A new season is just around the corner....and all we have is RandrewL. Or whatever he calls himself. He is good, but we need more. I have tried and tried to get you to realize how good you are...but you disappear on us. MICHAEL!!!! I am not trying to make you sick!! I want you to step up to the plate...take the chance...you KNOW your meteorology...create a fake name if you have to but be there for us on the coast!!!

I have always complimented you on your expertise. Show it. Flow it. You are good.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
325. Tazmanian
5:30 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
now now evere one play nic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
324. aquak9
5:29 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Read your mail, StL. Copy and paste it for everyone to see. I fear no repercussions.

We want and need (and encourage) all the good mets we can get.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
323. aquak9
5:19 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
And there's my point. StL...are you afraid of your skills? Do you think you can't handle a Season™?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
322. MichaelSTL
5:18 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
You only care about the weather over your roof.

You have worried over no one.

NOW THIS IS UNFORGIVABLE!!! THIS MAKES ME SICK!
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
321. aquak9
5:15 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
weatherboykris...your posts are actually pretty concise and to-the point. I'd like to see you here during the Season™. But SO many folk disappear when things start to get hairy. WBK(weatherboykris) My last post was not meant to you.

Now YOU...Mr. StL...you are a very good met-in-training...and you also have some great skills on the net. BUT...you have never been here for anyone who had scary weather in a different zipcode than yours. You only care about the weather over your roof. I have been saying this for the past 5 months, and everyone agrees with me. WE are a community, and you seem to choose to slice yourself away from it.
StL- we have worried over you. You have worried over no one.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
320. aquak9
5:07 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Weather boy kris, I type slow so just give me a sec, ok
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
319. MichaelSTL
5:07 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
I didn't say anything at all related to that, just making an observation of how much more active this blog is during hurricane season, even when nobody is being threatened... like hurricanes are the only weather threats... rolling eyes (many others have wondered why it has been so quiet lately when there is IMO plenty of things going on, such as an ice/winter storm that was as deadly/damaging as a pretty bad hurricane, although not on the scale of Katrina, but still worse than most storms).
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
318. weatherboykris
5:05 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
And before you say I'm young and naive,or something like that,please note that it doesn't make no sense because I don't want to agree with you,it makes no sense form the point of:A little explanation please.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
317. weatherboykris
5:02 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Sorry StL...not that you pay attention to ANY of my posts but my last post was not meant to be in a derrogatory nature to you...
The Good Dr.Master's blog, as far as I can see, is the bastion of weatherkeeping. For the little-minded, it is not the place to call home. Many, many folk watch Dr.Master's blog. We know who lives where; we know who has family where. Somehow, we always take care of each other---but we move it OUT OF THE GOOD DR.'S BLOG.

StL...you weren't with us for the Season. You did not cry and pray with us.
You don't understand what this place is...(just because you have a blog party, does not reciprocate the pain) StL....

You'll understand when you are older. Like maybe 58.

Aqua out.


Aqua,that post made absolutely no sense.Goodnight
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
316. aquak9
5:02 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
skye?

no mo film was the last one. Contact Damon. NoMoFilm's pics...he had nearly 200 before and after pics...standing in the same spot...so frightening...

Skye+♥
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
315. Tazmanian
5:00 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
thanks sky


where is are aron any one see him in the past 42days
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
314. aquak9
5:00 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Sorry StL...not that you pay attention to ANY of my posts but my last post was not meant to be in a derrogatory nature to you...
The Good Dr.Master's blog, as far as I can see, is the bastion of weatherkeeping. For the little-minded, it is not the place to call home. Many, many folk watch Dr.Master's blog. We know who lives where; we know who has family where. Somehow, we always take care of each other---but we move it OUT OF THE GOOD DR.'S BLOG.

StL...you weren't with us for the Season. You did not cry and pray with us.
You don't understand what this place is...(just because you have a blog party, does not reciprocate the pain) StL....

You'll understand when you are older. Like maybe 58.

Aqua out.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
313. weatherboykris
5:00 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
midnight on the eastern time zone,I'm out too.Goodnight everyone
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
312. Skyepony (Mod)
4:59 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Oh & I hear ya Buhdog, looks like cooler air maybe on the way. Better late then never.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39073
311. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:59 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
maybe by july the water will be 95
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55519
310. Skyepony (Mod)
4:58 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
That's why Aaron is our Benevolent Dictator.

Taz~ I saw & answered.

It's near midnight here, tommarrow ya'll.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39073
309. weatherboykris
4:56 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
I think this STL:


I think Skye is right; this blog is a lot more active during hurricane season, to the point where the comment limit that is still in place for regular blogs had to be removed because it ran out of space (LOL), even with frequent updates.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
308. Tazmanian
4:52 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
hey all any one see my link i have a ? for evere one see my link for more
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
307. MichaelSTL
4:51 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
I am not sure if I understand what your post is referring to; my last comment or something else?
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
306. weatherboykris
4:49 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
ok StL..I gotta correct you on this, and I think Skye will back me up. The Good Dr.Master's blog can handle anything-- it is the entry point for all the newbies- and yes it can become overloaded once Season™ starts. BUT...Aaron is wise. He knows how to shift gears, he knows who is online..we can get folks into the blogs they need to be in...he can direct people (geographically) to where they need to be safe.
There's a reason it's called Weather Underground...


They call it the WU as a reference to the 1960s militant group based at UM.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
305. aquak9
4:46 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
ok StL..I gotta correct you on this, and I think Skye will back me up. The Good Dr.Master's blog can handle anything-- it is the entry point for all the newbies- and yes it can become overloaded once Season™ starts. BUT...Aaron is wise. He knows how to shift gears, he knows who is online..we can get folks into the blogs they need to be in...he can direct people (geographically) to where they need to be safe.
There's a reason it's called Weather Underground...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
304. Buhdog
4:46 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
I had about 5 palm trees killed and 1 pool cage killed by wima...and charley.

Let's hope some cool air gets to the gulf soon. The water is almost 80 in Jan.....not cool.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
303. Tazmanian
4:43 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
i have a ? for evere one

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
302. weatherboykris
4:42 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
I remember that.I lurked all season,so I saw everything that happened from basically May on.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
301. Skyepony (Mod)
4:42 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Hey aquak:)

It was NoMoFilm1 that showed up this last summer, I think Lefty & storm Junkie were in, we about freaked. I guess I should tell Damon so he can up date the list. Down to one.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39073
300. MichaelSTL
4:38 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
I think Skye is right; this blog is a lot more active during hurricane season, to the point where the comment limit that is still in place for regular blogs had to be removed because it ran out of space (LOL), even with frequent updates.
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
299. aquak9
4:35 AM GMT on January 24, 2007
Skye+?
StL?

Comforting to see the names here....
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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