Storms and heat in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on January 19, 2007

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Europe's strange winter weather continues to generate headlines, as a powerful low pressure system brought hurricane-force wind gusts to England, Germany, the Czech Republic, and many other European countries on Thursday. The powerful extratropical cyclone, now centered over western Russia, has a central pressure of 960 mb--the kind of pressures commonly seen in Category 1 and 2 hurricanes! At least 41 people have been killed in the storm, mostly motorists in England and Germany. The storm shut down the German train system for the first time in history. The last winter storm with comparable winds in Europe occurred in January 1990. The latest computer forecast models point to the first significant snows and cold for Europe next week, when a major low pressure system is expected to finally tap into some cold Artic air and pull it southwards over much of Europe.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average (in �C) for the week (Sun-Thu). The western U.S. is suffering the worst winter cold of anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Europe and northern Asia continue to feel record-breaking warm temperatures. Note that the area of most extreme below-normal temperatures occurred over San Antonio, Texas, where the world's largest meeting of meteorologists was being held!

Extraordinary warmth in Europe
The European storm was a warm and rainy one, and record warmth continues to affect both Europe and most of northern Asia (Figure 1). January 10, with a temperature of 8 �C, was the warmest in the first 10 days of January in Moscow, Russia, according to the hydro-meteorological bureau for Moscow. Record keeping began in 1870. St. Petersburg reported their warmest January day in 125 years of record keeping the same day, with a temperature of 8.6 �C. Nighttime minimum temperatures in London, England, hit 12.6 �C on January 8, which is warmer than the average July minimum temperature, 12� C. So far, January temperatures in London are the warmest since record keeping began in 1659.

Romanian snowboarders blockade weather office
The lack of snow in Romania has driven snow lovers in that country to desperation. A group of Romanian snowboarders blocked traffic in front of the country's weather institute January 16, and would only budge when weather officials would agree that their complaints of a lack of snow "would be passed on to a higher authority", according to Ananova.

Winter hits the U.S., China, and Bengladesh
Winter cold has hit the western U.S. hard this week, with California suffering a devastating freeze to its citrus crop. Heavy snow has affected central China--the Chinese official state media Xinhua said on January 16th that more than 1,000 houses have collapsed and 2,424 damaged in the weather as snow levels reached 300 millimeters in some regions. Earlier this month, Bengladesh saw temperatures that fell from the daily average of 18 �C to between 5 and 8 �C. The government called on affluent people to donate warm clothes and blankets to the poor, as doctors reported that more than 100 people had died from the sudden cold.

Jeff Masters

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144. Patrap
4:31 PM CST on January 19, 2007
Manning vs Brees..Thats Sounds like a Good match UP!...Go Colts..Go Who DATS!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
143. tornadodude
10:28 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
hey... check this out...


Go Colts! Go Saints!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
142. Patrap
4:28 PM CST on January 19, 2007
The GFSx out thru 10days Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
140. tornadodude
10:25 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
thanks IKE... wishing for more, but could be more, could be none... thats snow forecasting...lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
139. IKE
4:24 PM CST on January 19, 2007
Vincennes, Indiana forecast for snow is on Sunday..."Sunday
Snow likely until midday...then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent."
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138. Patrap
4:22 PM CST on January 19, 2007
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
137. tornadodude
10:14 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
good afternoon all, how much snow do you think ill get here in vincennes, indiana?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
136. Patrap
4:16 PM CST on January 19, 2007
There is NO SAnta Either.Only Dreams of Tubes and Tunnels from His top Elf..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
134. Thunderstorm2
9:56 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
And they say we can't control the weather!!! Bwhaaaaa!!!!!Bwhaaaaa!!!!!Bwhaaaa!!!!!

Good God please stop either crying or laughing at things that arent funny or sad
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
133. Patrap
3:54 PM CST on January 19, 2007
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
132. IKE
3:54 PM CST on January 19, 2007
This from the afternoon Montgomery,Al. discussion...

Climate...the potential for a significant shift in the longwave pattern is
increasing for the time period beginning around Jan 25th. The cpc's
6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks (pmdmrd) detail an "excellent
agreement" between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS ensembles mean
solutions...bringing deep troughing over the eastern Continental U.S. As a
large West Coast ridge develops. This is the basic set up for a
lengthy Arctic air pattern to establish itself over the deep south.
Record lows over central Alabama are very cold during the next two
weeks...so it would take a very significant Arctic outbreak to break
these values. Nonetheless...with climatic signals suggesting this
shift in the overall longwave pattern...it will be interesting to
monitor the development of this potential.


Some record lows for the end of next week are:


Record lows for bhm..........mgm
Jan 25 7 15
Jan 26 1 11
Jan 27 1 10
Jan 28 5 13
Jan 29 2 8
Jan 30 -4 5
Jan 31 5 13
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130. hurricane23
4:45 PM EST on January 19, 2007
Afternoon discussion from NWS out of miami...Cooler air mentioned but not to extremes of what the GFS is calling for.I doupt the GFS scenario plays out as far as real cold temps down here in southeast florida.Rain is indeed welcomed as we need it.

BY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PROGGED TO CUTOFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL FINALLY FORCE THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RECENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH. THE LATEST
GFSLR/ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THAT
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THIS PERIOD. LAPSE
RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE
IN STORE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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129. IKE
3:42 PM CST on January 19, 2007
This from the extended Jackson, Mississippi discussion..

"The bigger weather news this package is the dramatic cooling
advertised for the Thursday/Friday time frame when a very cold air
mass pushes in behind the trough. Have cooler previous temperatures to
follow this trend but still remain well above MOS for Friday
morning...especially the 20 degree lows forecast by MOS for northestern
zones."
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128. IKE
3:26 PM CST on January 19, 2007
Agree...I doubt it will either...the GFS has been forecasting eastern US troughs in their extended model runs for awhile...see if this one verifies.
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126. Thunderstorm2
9:14 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Updated: 22 min 16 sec ago

Observed at: Orlando, Florida
Elevation: 112 ft / 34 m

73 F / 23 C
Clear
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: 54 F / 12 C
Wind: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the NW
Pressure: 30.17 in / 1022 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Raw METAR Aviation
Flight Rule: VFR (KORL)
Wind Speed: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s
Wind Dir: 320 (NW)
Ceiling: Unlimited


Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
125. IKE
3:15 PM CST on January 19, 2007
This from the NWS climate prediction center...

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2007: THE COLD PATTERN FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEEK 2. IF THE FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN VERIFIES... THEN RECORD SETTING COLD IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE PERSISTING A SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
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123. IKE
3:07 PM CST on January 19, 2007
This afternoons Tampa, Fl. discussion...

"Temperatures will remain above climatology while under the influence of
the front over the area...then on Wednesday evening a sharp
decrease in temperatures begins with the colder and drier airmass arriving
from the north. Latest model data suggests possible morning lows in
the middle to upper 30s over the Nature Coast and upper 40s over Tampa
by Friday...along with afternoon maximums dropping to around 60 north of
Tampa and lower to middle 60s elsewhere."

By Friday is January 26th...maybe the GFS isn't that far off?
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120. mrpuertorico
4:57 PM AST on January 19, 2007
impresive cloud cover over the atl ocean. man if it where hurricane season we would be bitting our nails
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119. IKE
2:50 PM CST on January 19, 2007
The middle into the end of next week. Waiting on the new GFS to come in. 12Z GFS phases a low off of the east coast, bringing a noreaster up the NE USA.
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118. Thunderstorm2
8:48 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Its forecast to come around the middle of next week
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
117. ryang
4:44 PM AST on January 19, 2007
i believe that a big freeze for S Fl is coming


WHEN?
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116. Thunderstorm2
8:42 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
have fun
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
115. weatherboykris
8:42 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
going to go play SW Battlefront II
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
114. weatherboykris
8:41 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
I'll be back later
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
113. Thunderstorm2
8:38 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Im sorry,i used some of another model that i found
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
111. fire16
8:18 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
orion,
This is an example of that type of new experience a few years ago. A family had moved in our fire district from the Smokey Mountains. Before the storm they decided to stay in their single wide mobile home because blizzards were worse than "just wind". After 2 70 ft pine trees came to rest on the trailer, they called the fire dept to rescue them. We were having 90+ sustained winds. Now they think differently about just wind.
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110. IKE
2:30 PM CST on January 19, 2007
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007


Looks like a cold wave for the east with a possible noreaster late next week.
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109. weatherboykris
8:28 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
that was last night's 00z MOS,TS2
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
108. weatherboykris
8:27 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Where'd that come from,Ike?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
107. IKE
2:26 PM CST on January 19, 2007
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2007: THE COLD PATTERN FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEEK 2. IF THE FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN VERIFIES... THEN RECORD SETTING COLD IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE PERSISTING A SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
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106. Thunderstorm2
8:23 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
What do you think of this temp forecast for mid Sunday Link
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
105. Thunderstorm2
8:17 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Some of it
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
104. weatherboykris
8:16 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Just look at the MOS.Speaking of MOS TS2,did you use it for you're forecast?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
103. Thunderstorm2
8:15 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
I believe that a big freeze for S Fl is coming
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
102. weatherboykris
8:12 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
I don't know if you've noticed this,Progresive (and nice to meet you cause I don't think we've spoken),but TWC is ALWAYS conservative in their forecasts, espescially a week out.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
101. Thunderstorm2
8:11 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Never Trust TWC
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
100. ryang
4:08 PM AST on January 19, 2007
BRB
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12416
99. ProgressivePulse
8:10 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Not Seeing the Extreme Cold you guys are speaking about for South Fla next week?
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98. Thunderstorm2
8:07 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
ok cya
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
97. weatherboykris
8:06 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
ok
I'll be back later
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
96. Thunderstorm2
8:02 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
mines is 43/37/2
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
95. Thunderstorm2
8:02 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
Hey ryan
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
94. weatherboykris
8:02 PM GMT on January 19, 2007
My forecast is 49/45/3
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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