Storms and heat in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on January 19, 2007

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Europe's strange winter weather continues to generate headlines, as a powerful low pressure system brought hurricane-force wind gusts to England, Germany, the Czech Republic, and many other European countries on Thursday. The powerful extratropical cyclone, now centered over western Russia, has a central pressure of 960 mb--the kind of pressures commonly seen in Category 1 and 2 hurricanes! At least 41 people have been killed in the storm, mostly motorists in England and Germany. The storm shut down the German train system for the first time in history. The last winter storm with comparable winds in Europe occurred in January 1990. The latest computer forecast models point to the first significant snows and cold for Europe next week, when a major low pressure system is expected to finally tap into some cold Artic air and pull it southwards over much of Europe.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average (in �C) for the week (Sun-Thu). The western U.S. is suffering the worst winter cold of anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Europe and northern Asia continue to feel record-breaking warm temperatures. Note that the area of most extreme below-normal temperatures occurred over San Antonio, Texas, where the world's largest meeting of meteorologists was being held!

Extraordinary warmth in Europe
The European storm was a warm and rainy one, and record warmth continues to affect both Europe and most of northern Asia (Figure 1). January 10, with a temperature of 8 �C, was the warmest in the first 10 days of January in Moscow, Russia, according to the hydro-meteorological bureau for Moscow. Record keeping began in 1870. St. Petersburg reported their warmest January day in 125 years of record keeping the same day, with a temperature of 8.6 �C. Nighttime minimum temperatures in London, England, hit 12.6 �C on January 8, which is warmer than the average July minimum temperature, 12� C. So far, January temperatures in London are the warmest since record keeping began in 1659.

Romanian snowboarders blockade weather office
The lack of snow in Romania has driven snow lovers in that country to desperation. A group of Romanian snowboarders blocked traffic in front of the country's weather institute January 16, and would only budge when weather officials would agree that their complaints of a lack of snow "would be passed on to a higher authority", according to Ananova.

Winter hits the U.S., China, and Bengladesh
Winter cold has hit the western U.S. hard this week, with California suffering a devastating freeze to its citrus crop. Heavy snow has affected central China--the Chinese official state media Xinhua said on January 16th that more than 1,000 houses have collapsed and 2,424 damaged in the weather as snow levels reached 300 millimeters in some regions. Earlier this month, Bengladesh saw temperatures that fell from the daily average of 18 �C to between 5 and 8 �C. The government called on affluent people to donate warm clothes and blankets to the poor, as doctors reported that more than 100 people had died from the sudden cold.

Jeff Masters

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12 Bft storm
Vlissingen Storm 10-11 BFRT (jeandela)
Vlissingen  Storm 10-11 BFRT
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Storm 9/10 BFRT

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244. Thunderstorm2
7:35 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I'll be back later, away to play Black and White 2
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
243. weatherboykris
7:25 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Lot's of spread among the ensembles this morning.I like this link a lot,it's the GFS ensembles.The more red the color,the more disagreement.Link
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
242. Buhdog
7:20 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
How far south ya saying the cold will go? I am betting not far. This has been one of the most beautiful winters in SWFL in a long time! Not gonna get cold at my parade.
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241. Thunderstorm2
6:56 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
23,Intensivication seem like a good bet but whats the shear like
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
240. weatherboykris
6:49 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Link please Louis.Be Back later
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
239. hurricane23
1:38 PM EST on January 20, 2007
Good afternoon,

Iam still not buying what the GFS is calling for with all this real cool air pushing down the state into southeast florida.If anything a brief cool down is probably all we will get with a quick warm as usually.

As far as the 93P indeed a nice deep ball of convection is seen on infrared imagery and further intensification is a possibility.

NRL infrared view...


(Regional Sector Coverage)

Different infrared view
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
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238. LouisC
6:35 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
The advice given to Benjamin Braddock was "Plastics." My advice is orange juice.

From the HPC discussion yesterday:

ONE OF THE 00Z D+8 GFS COMPOSITE ANALOGS LINK TO 19 JAN 1977. THIS
WAS RECORD EXTREME COLD OVER FLORIDA. INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST HT AND TEMP ANOMALY FIELDS WHILE WELL BELOW NORMAL ARE
NOT IN THE RANGE OF THIS RECORD EVENT BUT MEAN COMPOSITE SUGGESTS
A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE 1977 EVENT THE COLDEST OF THE COMPOSITE
SOLUTIONS OVER FL SRN. NEEDS TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY BY
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN BASICALLY IN
PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THE LONGER TERM MODEL RUN OUTS OF
THE GFS HAVE A SIMILAR EVEN COLDER COLD SURGE ABOUT AROUND 5 DAYS
LATER NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH.
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237. Skyepony (Mod)
6:35 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Russia Weathers a Disturbing Warm Winter
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236. Thunderstorm2
5:06 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
93P.INVEST
Impressive Convection
20kts 1004mb
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
235. Thunderstorm2
5:01 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Thats a big low
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
234. philliesrock
11:36 AM EST on January 20, 2007
Nor'Easter? Here's the latest run of the GFS:

noreaster
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233. ryang
12:29 PM AST on January 20, 2007
map
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232. ryang
12:24 PM AST on January 20, 2007
map
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231. weatherboykris
4:27 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
be back later
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
230. weatherboykris
4:24 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
And I was right!For the first night after the cold front,the 12z GFS is slightly colder than the 00z run,although not as cold as yesterday's 12z run.
none
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
229. ryang
12:23 PM AST on January 20, 2007
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/44W...PASSING
THROUGH FROM 17N BEYOND 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 29N41W
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N44W TO 18N50W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N18W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N EAST OF 50W
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228. weatherboykris
4:19 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
From what I've seen of the 12z GFS(out to 120h)it seems as though it will be back to a freeze.Stronger advection and better placement of the arctic high than what was depicted by the 00z run.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
227. Thunderstorm2
4:15 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Well im not quite sure now but its not impossible (as i keep saying),on the short range GFS MOS the max daytime temp for S Fl by Tuesday is 80F.
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
226. weatherboykris
4:17 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
hi
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
225. ryang
12:15 PM AST on January 20, 2007
Hi kris.
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224. weatherboykris
4:14 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
So TS2, are you still thinking a freeze next week?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
223. Thunderstorm2
4:08 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Lots of snow inside the warning area about 6-8 inches forecast
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
222. Randrewl
4:07 PM GMT on January 20, 2007

Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31493
221. ryang
12:04 PM AST on January 20, 2007
WOW
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220. Thunderstorm2
4:01 PM GMT on January 20, 2007

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday...

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday
for the following counties...

In Arkansas...
Benton... Carroll... Washington... and Madison.

In Oklahoma...
Osage... Washington... Nowata... Craig... Ottawa... Pawnee... Tulsa...
Rogers... Mayes... Delaware... creek... Okfuskee... Okmulgee...
Wagoner... Cherokee... Adair... Muskogee... and McIntosh.

Widespread snow and sleet is expected across northeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas today into tonight... with precipitation
ending from west to east Saturday night. Snow appears most likely
along and northwest of Interstate 44... with accumulations of four
to eight inches expected. Further south... a snow sleet mix is
expected across east central Oklahoma... transitioning to mainly
sleet across far northwest Arkansas. Accumulations within this
zone of three to five inches are expected.

The transition in precipitation type will remain a forecast
challenge throughout today and tonight... and forecast
accumulations may change rapidly pending the latest information.
Updated forecasts should continue to be closely monitored.

Despite the continued uncertainty associated with this winter
storm... the resultant effects will be increasingly dangerous Road
conditions along with potential for isolated power outages. Recovery
efforts from the recent ice storm will also likely be hindered by
the additional snow and sleet.

Persons should delay travel if possible. Roads... bridges... and
overpasses in the warning area will likely become slick and
hazardous. Motorists should use extreme caution if travel is
absolutely necessary.
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
219. Thundercloud01221991
3:38 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Come see KC's weather
Here
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218. 147257
3:35 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
my country suffered enorm of this storm we had max winds of 130 km/h and 5 people were killed in the storm and 2 people were killed because of the storm due fixing things
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217. Thunderstorm2
3:28 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Its set at Tuesday Link
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
216. weatherboykris
3:28 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I think the 12z GFS will be back to a strong cold front.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
215. weatherboykris
3:27 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Link
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
214. weatherboykris
3:27 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
The ETA is the NAM
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
213. weatherboykris
3:26 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
that's the Short range GFS MOS
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
212. Thunderstorm2
3:25 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
MAV
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
211. weatherboykris
3:24 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
which one?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
210. Thunderstorm2
2:18 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Well by Mid Tuesday a MOS Model is expecting the temperature for S Fl to drop to 65F
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
209. Randrewl
2:14 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
It's still a ways off. Things can change and the GFS may be right after all.
Right now the locals are discounting the GFS. Tuesday will show us more.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31493
208. Thunderstorm2
2:09 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I fully believe that that forecast will come true
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
207. Randrewl
1:46 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL BE ON
TAP ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

WED-FRI...WILL BE DISCOUNTING THE OPERATIONAL GFS...DUE TO THE LARGE
VARIABILITY EXHIBITED IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GFS LOOKS TO EJECT A
CUTOFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOO QUICKLY WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANT
RAMIFICATIONS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THU. WILL INSTEAD BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...WHICH GENERALLY
HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED WED-WED NIGHT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN THU
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT OUT QUICKLY BY
FRI...DECREASING CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN.



The local guys are not buying the cold weather.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31493
206. Thunderstorm2
12:39 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Pollution alert as ship beached near UK
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
205. weatherboykris
12:19 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
As far as the cold front goes...Yesterdays 12z run was very aggresive on the front,with a freeze in south Florida.The 18z run backed off completely,then the 00z run had a front ,but a weaker one.This morning's 06z run is back to showing a front,although not as strong as yesterday's 12z run.This is encouraging for the chances of a freeze,as the trend this year has beeen for the 06z/18z runs to be less aggresive with fronts,and the usually more accurate 00z/12z runs to be more aggressive.If the 06z run was somewhat aggresive,I would expect this morning's 12z run to be as aggressive as yesterday's 12z run or more so.We'll be able to see the 12z out to 180h by 11:45AM.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
204. Frozencanuck
4:19 AM GMT on January 20, 2007
Hi Ryang...I moved out of Toronto to find a warmer spot to live. If you have to go downtown watch out for those cold breezes blowing off the lake around those tall buildings. Those will get you every time. Dress warm my friend and make sure you are wearing appropriate footwear too. Its one cold night for all of us. Take care and keep safe....
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202. weatherboykris
3:55 AM GMT on January 20, 2007
mail pottery
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
201. pottery
10:37 PM AST on January 19, 2007
Anyway I have to go. Put on lots of socks and keep well...........
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200. pottery
10:34 PM AST on January 19, 2007
True. I hope there is a kingfish out there too. Maybe a dolphin, but its a little early.
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199. ryang
10:31 PM AST on January 19, 2007
Tobago should be cooler.
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198. pottery
10:30 PM AST on January 19, 2007
Actually that comment wasnt fair.Couldnt resist it though !
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197. pottery
10:28 PM AST on January 19, 2007
Going over to Tobago in the morning to LOL on a beach. For 3 days. I'll think of you heheheh
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196. pottery
10:23 PM AST on January 19, 2007
33 c here today. Nice breezy one too.
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195. ryang
10:17 PM AST on January 19, 2007
LOL Pottery i need a coat.Freezing.Back i see its warm.
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194. pottery
10:07 PM AST on January 19, 2007
OK Ryang, I'll check that out. How are you making out in the frozen North ? Here its becoming more like dry season each day, after good rains up to Wed. How about hurricanes in Europe eh?Along with some pretty wonky temps posted all over. Strange stuff......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.