Storms and heat in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on January 19, 2007

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Europe's strange winter weather continues to generate headlines, as a powerful low pressure system brought hurricane-force wind gusts to England, Germany, the Czech Republic, and many other European countries on Thursday. The powerful extratropical cyclone, now centered over western Russia, has a central pressure of 960 mb--the kind of pressures commonly seen in Category 1 and 2 hurricanes! At least 41 people have been killed in the storm, mostly motorists in England and Germany. The storm shut down the German train system for the first time in history. The last winter storm with comparable winds in Europe occurred in January 1990. The latest computer forecast models point to the first significant snows and cold for Europe next week, when a major low pressure system is expected to finally tap into some cold Artic air and pull it southwards over much of Europe.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average (in �C) for the week (Sun-Thu). The western U.S. is suffering the worst winter cold of anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Europe and northern Asia continue to feel record-breaking warm temperatures. Note that the area of most extreme below-normal temperatures occurred over San Antonio, Texas, where the world's largest meeting of meteorologists was being held!

Extraordinary warmth in Europe
The European storm was a warm and rainy one, and record warmth continues to affect both Europe and most of northern Asia (Figure 1). January 10, with a temperature of 8 �C, was the warmest in the first 10 days of January in Moscow, Russia, according to the hydro-meteorological bureau for Moscow. Record keeping began in 1870. St. Petersburg reported their warmest January day in 125 years of record keeping the same day, with a temperature of 8.6 �C. Nighttime minimum temperatures in London, England, hit 12.6 �C on January 8, which is warmer than the average July minimum temperature, 12� C. So far, January temperatures in London are the warmest since record keeping began in 1659.

Romanian snowboarders blockade weather office
The lack of snow in Romania has driven snow lovers in that country to desperation. A group of Romanian snowboarders blocked traffic in front of the country's weather institute January 16, and would only budge when weather officials would agree that their complaints of a lack of snow "would be passed on to a higher authority", according to Ananova.

Winter hits the U.S., China, and Bengladesh
Winter cold has hit the western U.S. hard this week, with California suffering a devastating freeze to its citrus crop. Heavy snow has affected central China--the Chinese official state media Xinhua said on January 16th that more than 1,000 houses have collapsed and 2,424 damaged in the weather as snow levels reached 300 millimeters in some regions. Earlier this month, Bengladesh saw temperatures that fell from the daily average of 18 �C to between 5 and 8 �C. The government called on affluent people to donate warm clothes and blankets to the poor, as doctors reported that more than 100 people had died from the sudden cold.

Jeff Masters

12 Bft storm (wsdedolb)
The 12 Bft storm named
12 Bft storm
Vlissingen Storm 10-11 BFRT (jeandela)
Vlissingen  Storm 10-11 BFRT
Storm 9/10 BFRT (jeandela)
Storm 9/10 BFRT

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294. ryang
4:37 AM GMT on January 21, 2007
Wishcaster check my blog!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
293. Wishcasterboy
4:35 AM GMT on January 21, 2007
Mr. Masters spelled Bangladesh Bengladesh.
292. tornadodude
3:02 AM GMT on January 21, 2007
hey everyone... waiting for the snow here... it has been rather mild this winter... 2-4inches expected... want loads more...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
291. ryang
1:47 AM GMT on January 21, 2007
Skye what do you think about the invest at my blog.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
290. Skyepony (Mod)
1:43 AM GMT on January 21, 2007
Looking at the N Hemisphere surface temps Jeff posted up top, the SE & well all of eastern US looks like it is on borrowed time as far as the extra warmth goes. The big mass of cold is slowly slipping east & the robins as of today have finally arrived. So winter should be on soon, for those north of me.

Still not sold on Freezing temps for SFL next week.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38626
288. Patrap
12:15 AM GMT on January 21, 2007
6 GEAUX Saints..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
287. MichaelSTL
12:08 AM GMT on January 21, 2007
So where is the Global Warming now?

LOL... You meant to say "So where is the New York City Warming now?"

global (glō'bəl)
adj.
Having the shape of a globe; spherical.
Of, relating to, or involving the entire earth; worldwide: global war; global monetary policies.
Comprehensive; total: a . . . global, generalized sense of loss (Maggie Scarf).
Computer Science. Of or relating to an entire program, document, or file.

Source


Common fallacy: when it is colder than normal in one tiny part of the globe, this disproves global warming when by its very definition, global warming involves the ENTIRE planet. Let's wait until we have one of the coldest years on record... globally
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
286. V26R
12:04 AM GMT on January 21, 2007
Temp in NYC right now at 24 degrees at a wind chill of 13, winds at 21 gusting to 32
So where is the Global Warming now?
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
285. hurricane23
11:48 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Interesting STL...Iam seeing Neutral conditions come the heart of the season.Hopefully we can get some colder weather so SST'S can lower some in the western atlantic.If not it may be an issue come this hurricane season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
284. ryang
11:27 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I have a blog on the invset.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
283. MichaelSTL
11:24 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I still see above normal SSTs along the entire equatorial Pacific (yellows and oranges in the map posted above); the cooler water in the NE Pacific is not counted as part of El Nino (only equatorial SSTs count, which is why I prefer to use thies graphs to determine how strong El Nino is):



To be exact, here are the Nino regions:

Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
282. hurricane23
11:24 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Posted By: tornadodude at 3:48 PM EST on January 20, 2007.

As far as the 93P indeed a nice deep ball of convection is seen on infrared imagery and further intensification is a possibility.
where is 93P located?

93P is located in the Southern Hemisphere...

For imagery on 93P visit NRL or if try the Southern Hemisphere sectors.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
281. Thunderstorm2
11:15 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
By the looks of it La Nina is already coming in

Im away bye everyone
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
280. MichaelSTL
11:14 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I don't really think that the chances of an early season storm are that high, considering that there is still an El Nino (even if a weakening one) and it is only January. Storms are much more likely to form in the central Pacific at this time of the year; it happened in 1992 (it was a major hurricane as well; another storm formed in March the same year).
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
279. Thunderstorm2
11:10 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
You cant afford anymore freezing rain
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
278. MichaelSTL
11:09 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Not much is going on right now; significant snowfall of up to 6 inches is expected tonight; however, there are some catches to this: it will be, like the other two events, a warm air advection event, meaning that if the warm air advection is stronger than forecast (as it was in the other two events), a mix or even freezing rain may fall instead. In fact, the hourly weather graph already has a chance of freezing rain in it, which it didn't have yesterday:

Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
277. Thunderstorm2
11:09 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Its a long way off yet but who do you guys think will win the 2008 Election
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
276. weatherboykris
11:05 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Anyone else seen this?Link
The isobars aren't kinking as they normally do with fronts.Could we have an Ana on our hands in about a week and a half?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
275. ryang
11:04 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
LOL STL.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
274. weatherboykris
11:03 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Anyone else seen thisLink
Look at the isobars around it and how they don't 'kink'.That's non-frontal.I'm just saying...
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
273. Thunderstorm2
11:02 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Hi STL How are you this evening,hows the weather where you are
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
272. MichaelSTL
10:56 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Posted By: HCW at 4:18 PM CST on January 20, 2007. (hide)
Anybody enjoying this nice mild winter ?
HARDCOREWEATHER.COM
Link


LOL... Mild? Not with two* historic ice storms (my area was declared a DISASTER area twice in less than two months, and the third time in less than a year) and a big snowstorm (or ice storm if it follows the past trend of warmer than forecast temperatures...) is forecast for tonight... when was the last time over 70 people died in a winter storm, along with billions in damages?

*This is only for my area (there was a third in Nebraska and California also had freezing rain in addition to record cold destroy much of their citrus crops - just try buying oranges, especially if some models verify and Florida also gets a freeze).
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
271. Thunderstorm2
10:23 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Chicago "Bear" Gumbo!..Nawlins style!..Link

LOL
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
270. Thunderstorm2
10:21 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
im not enjoying the mild winter niether, SNOW SNOW SNOW!!!!!
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
269. weatherboykris
10:19 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
alright,TS2.bye
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
268. weatherboykris
10:19 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
no,actually I'm not enjoying the mild weather.Bring on the chill!
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
267. Thunderstorm2
10:18 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
be back later tonight,we'll score the forecast contests at midnight.Unless you wrote down everyone's forecast(Skye made on too and I forgot to write them down),we're going to have to dig through the comments.

I won't be on at midnight (i have a limit) so just post it on the blog and ill look at it tomorrow.
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
266. HCW
10:18 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Anybody enjoying this nice mild winter ?
HARDCOREWEATHER.COM
Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
265. Patrap
10:18 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Chicago "Bear" Gumbo!..Nawlins style!..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
264. weatherboykris
10:17 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
maybe La Nina
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
263. weatherboykris
10:17 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
be back later tonight,we'll score the forecast contests at midnight.Unless you wrote down everyone's forecast(Skye made on too and I forgot to write them down),we're going to have to dig through the comments.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
262. Thunderstorm2
10:16 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
La Nina on its way?
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
261. weatherboykris
10:15 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Not much seems to be going on so...I'm gonna go play BF2 online
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
260. Thunderstorm2
10:15 PM GMT on January 20, 2007

The Flood Warning continues for
the Neches River near Diboll Texas.
* Until further notice.
* At 11 am Saturday... the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Expect lowland flooding to decrease as the river recedes two
to four inches per day through Monday.

Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
259. weatherboykris
10:14 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Pacific SSTS are cooling:
noe
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
258. weatherboykris
10:13 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
pretty good
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
257. Thunderstorm2
10:12 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
never mind the last comment i made
Good Thanks you
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
256. weatherboykris
10:12 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
not only 'one' only 'two'
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
255. weatherboykris
10:12 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
two
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
254. Thunderstorm2
10:11 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
you seem to be the only one apart from me
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
253. weatherboykris
10:11 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
how you doing?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
252. weatherboykris
10:11 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I am too
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
251. ryang
10:10 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I am.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
250. Thunderstorm2
10:04 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Is anyone on?
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
249. HCW
9:27 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
93P is looking pretty good. Have a great safe 2007 everybody

Http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
248. tornadodude
8:47 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
As far as the 93P indeed a nice deep ball of convection is seen on infrared imagery and further intensification is a possibility.
where is 93P located?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
247. tornadodude
8:34 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
Chicago... periods of snow... 3-5 inches... for Sunday...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
246. tornadodude
8:29 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
hey ya'll... 2-4 inches of snow for me here in indiana... Go Colts!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
245. Drakoen
8:31 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
hello guys! I haven't been posting but i do come on here everyday or every other day to see the topics. I am really interested to see if a major cool down that of Jan. 1977 come to south florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. Thunderstorm2
7:35 PM GMT on January 20, 2007
I'll be back later, away to play Black and White 2
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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