Remains of TD 10 reorganizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2005

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The remains of TD 10 continue to spin and track west-northwestward at 10-15 mph towards the northernmost Leeward Islands. Wind shear over the remains of TD 10 has continued to decrease, and is now near 10 knots. The reduced wind shear has allowed convection near the center of the storm to persist, and the satellite presentation has improved markedly today. Surface winds measured by theQuikscat satellite show peak velocities below tropical depression strength--20 knots north of the center. Global models indicate that shear may continue to decrease, allowing TD to reform today or Friday. A Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled for 2pm EDT today to investigate.


If TD 10 does reform, it will continue to the west-northwest under the influence of a strong high pressure ridge over Bermuda. This track would bring the system north of Puerto Rico and near the Bahama Islands by early next week. Several of the global models forecast strong shearing winds to affect the system Sunday and Monday, and both the GFDL and GFS models dissipate the system by Monday. If the storm survives this shear, a strong trough forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. on Monday or Tuesday may induce a more northerly motion five days from now.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Irene is racing towards Iceland and will no longer be a tropical storm by this evening. The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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199. CFLweather
9:51 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Yes that water is going to be a big factor if it can hold together until it nears the Bahamas.

We all already knew remenants of TD10 wasn't a tropical depression, this is pretty much all NHC stated. We'll have to wait and see.
198. Weatherwatcher007
9:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
When it hits the favorable conditions around 69w then it will develop. Right now it is difficult and nearly impossible to predict how strong it will become once it hits the 85+ degree sst's. I will start writing my in depth analysis on my blog. anyone intrested in this wave and the carribean visit my blog today.
197. willdd1979
9:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
will you lead us in the prayer weatherboyfsu?
196. willdd1979
9:43 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Cosmic Events LOL you are wrong (but not really) for saying that to stormtop but thanks for saying out loud what i was thinking in my head you are my new hero! (and i feel the same way you do it's good to listen to StormTop and go with the opposite of what he feels).
195. weatherboyfsu
9:41 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Hey you guys if you read Dr. Masters new post it explains that TD 10 is gone and will be moving into an area of high shear.....td10 is gone.....everybody lower their heads and let us pray......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
194. CosmicEvents
9:41 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Stormtop......I'm not really clear on your forecast for TD10? What is your present forecast for development, intensity, and direction? I like to add your opinion to all the info that I look at. I use NHC, Dr. Masters, and others on this board...in that order. I do find your opinion a very strong one on this board in the sense that it's good to go against what you think. But I am serious in asking. Please tell.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5689
193. willdd1979
9:40 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Dr. Masters says it's dead & will rise no more and I read on another site where it was said that it wouldn't have enough time to develope cuz by sunday it would be in a area of high shear so some of ya'll need to just exhale & let The wave that was TD 10 go and have a memorial service if thats what some of you need to do for closure.
192. weatherboyfsu
9:39 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
already did......its depressing
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
191. TropicalExpert
9:38 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
OK weatherwatcher007, but when it says "degenerated into a tropical wave" there is no longer an area of low pressure and there is no evidence of a circulation.
190. willdd1979
9:37 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
you all need to read Dr. Masters new post
189. weatherboyfsu
9:35 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
HEY..stormtop...I looked up your storm---FERN----it was a depression for 4 days....it seems to me thats not sneaking up on anyone....now it did strengthen pretty fast...but nothing that I havent seen....But I did learn of the storm....never heard the name...
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
188. Weatherwatcher007
9:35 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
It will not develop until it hits the more favorable conditions. Conditions get better by the second(even though it does not look like it) and by this weekend, it should develop. remember, the NHC did not say it would not develop later, the recon said that at this time it was not a tropical depression.
187. TropicalExpert
9:34 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Yes it was...
186. weatherboyfsu
9:30 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Well the recon plane said that TD 10 has gone ca--putt....bye bye.......im switching my full attention to the caribbean.....for august the 18th,,,this sucks.........
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
185. Weatherwatcher007
9:30 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Well It just didn't develop YET

SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN...HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


This does not mean that this wave will just die, it just means that it will be in limbo at least until it enters favorable conditions.
184. STORMTOP
9:27 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
yes he said it was going to develop just like i did...why dont you guys jump on him like you did me.....lol to afraid huh..i figured that....
183. aquak9
9:25 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
loved the link. Mr Bastardi's kinda cute. I mean, since there's nothing to look at out my window...boring HOT weather...not even a thunderstorm....yawn.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26681
182. willdd1979
9:23 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
well see ya'll later I'll be back when there's something in the tropics to watch/talk about but with TD 10 dead and gone it's rest time until the next system.
181. Lovethetropics
9:23 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
To Stormtop: Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico closed a few months ago.
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11350
180. willdd1979
9:21 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
wonder what is Dr. Masters thought on former TD 10?
179. HURCAN
9:21 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Dr. Masters,

How long does it take for you to respond to emails? Just wondering.

HURCAN
178. TropicalExpert
9:18 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
newinfl, there is no update. It's right there in the outlook. That is the update that the aircraft sent to the NHC.
177. newinfl
9:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
GOOD NIGHT GRACIE.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
176. willdd1979
9:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
wasn't that the update from the flight Tropical Expert just posted?
175. willdd1979
9:15 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
There it is in black bold print so everyone say good-bye to TD 10 it's now dead.
174. newinfl
9:14 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
when will we get the update on the flight into ?td10?
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
173. TropicalExpert
9:10 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
It won't development. Here is the latest outlook:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
172. CFLweather
9:10 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
This storm may or may not develop, its pretty much a coin toss. I agree it looks less impressive, but the thing you have to remember is that when thunderstorms continue to surround the center of circulation (yes, it does have a center of circulation), development is a possibility.

It is going through small weakening and strengthening cycles as can be noticed from satellite from the past 72 hours. It is just trying to deal with the harsh enviornment it was in, and it could not strengthen past a certain point because of factors that were limiting it from doing so. But, the shear is subsiding, and it is moving closer and closer to the very warm water surrounding the Bahamas. If this storm is given the chance to sail through a very favorable enviornment for development, I think explosive growth is in the future for it.
171. willdd1979
9:09 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
LSU Hurricane I went to the link and watched the video and he says that they will find a TD when the plane gets out there and the models have it blowing up to a full fledge storm in the Bahamas but following Irene's path. I jst don't agree I don't see it being classified as a TD today.
170. STORMTOP
9:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
tell me turtle im listening..you have my undivided attention..
169. cornflake826
9:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
I dont like any systems making it to the bahamas and sitting there to gain strength, we have 90+ degree water off the coast of S FL Right now.
168. cornflake826
9:04 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
he is basically seeing it starting to develop and will make its way to the bahamas and sit there
167. cornflake826
9:03 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
I dont know, if Joe Bastardi is concerned over it, I would be concerned, He is usually pretty good with tropical systems.
166. turtlehurricane
9:03 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
i think it will develop
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
165. southbeachdude
8:58 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
So...does everyone agree that this storm will not develop over the next few days? If so, I am happy...... Might be a good south beach weekend!
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 697
164. turtlehurricane
8:55 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
i meant in forecasting
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
163. STORMTOP
8:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
i dont know turtle im always wrong i guess you have to tell me ...
162. turtlehurricane
8:52 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
stormtrop, since u r always wrong, i must ask u, where on earth did u learn to forecast?
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
161. weatherguy03
8:45 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Save my butt..on what???..lol...IF listen to you I would have to run for cover every other day..lol
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
160. txweather
8:42 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
no idea really. but I must go. later
159. STORMTOP
8:40 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
lol tx you said they flew out of biloxi...so they are going back to roosevelt roads i assume...
158. txweather
8:40 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Sorry wabbit, don't know why. Perhaps too many people on or something. I'm under the impression its not real freindly site. It practically freezes my comp. For the latest ob you can go to the hurricane centers recon section too here it is

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT1.shtml?

hope this helps. but really there was a recon he's heading home now. no storm
157. whitewabit (Mod)
8:37 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
txweather

i did go to the link you gave but it didn't work just searched for a file it couldn't find
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32514
156. LSUHurricaneHunter
8:33 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
I have a VERY interesting piece i just found regarding the current tropical suituation. It is Joe Bastardi from accuweather. click on the point counterpoint link at the bottom.Link
155. txweather
8:33 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Sorry needed break. The recon is now at 17.7,63.5 and headfing home.
URNT11 KNHC 182000
97779 19524 50177 63500 30500 08014 08061 /3193
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 26
LAST REPORT.

Go to the link i provided you'll see it all.
154. turtlehurricane
8:21 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
i dont think this is gonna be classified today
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
153. STORMTOP
8:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
tx must of disappeared........
152. STORMTOP
8:18 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
i know cause i save your butt all the time lmao
151. weatherguy03
8:18 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
I still love ya Storm..lol
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
150. STORMTOP
8:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
lol@weatherguy
149. whitewabit (Mod)
8:15 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
stormtop

my last post was more for txweather
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32514

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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