New Atlantic tropical storm--from July

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on December 19, 2006

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The hurricane season of 2006 has a new tropical storm. No, it's not one of those rare December tropical storms. The new storm occurred back in July, according to a post-season analysis released by the National Hurricane Center Friday. The unnamed storm formed about 240 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts on July 17 from the remains of a cold front that had pushed off the East Coast on July 13. The unnamed storm started off as an extratropical storm, then passed over the warm 28-29 C waters of the Gulf Stream, which helped it make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. At its peak intensity, the unnamed storm had winds of 50 mph at the surface. As it moved northeastward, it passed into much colder waters, and died 24 hours after becoming a tropical storm. There were no reports of damage or injuries.


Figure 1. Unnamed tropical storm of July 17, 2006 (labeled "Extratropical (subtropical?) low" in my blog from July 17).

It is often difficult to be certain in real time if a short-lived storm is fully tropical and deserves a name. If the storm is not a threat to land, NHC will usually play it conservative, and rely on an end-of-season post-analysis using data that is not available in real time to determine if a borderline system was a tropical storm or not. In my blog from July 17 of this year, I noted, "To my eye, the system is probably a subtropical storm, and technically should be classified as Subtropical Depression Two. However, is it difficult to tell for sure, and the NHC is conservatively not naming it, since it is headed towards colder water and has little chance of becoming a full tropical storm." This is the second year in row NHC has analyzed a new tropical storm after the season was over. Last year, "Should have been Tammy" got rooked out of name; this year's storm--"Should have been Beryl"--brings the statistics for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season exactly to average for named storms--ten--and one below normal for hurricanes, five.

For information about Tropical Cyclone Bondo near Madgascar, which is near Category 5 intensity, see Margie Kieper's excellent View From the Surface blog. The cyclone passed only 37 km south of Agalega, Mauritius, today.

Jeff Masters

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187. MarcKeys
6:51 PM GMT on December 21, 2006
Funny they would make that determination now.

Florida Keys Fishing
186. hurricane23
1:01 PM GMT on December 21, 2006
Good morning,

Just checking the NWS out of miami and its looks like a rainy christmas for south florida as low pressure developes in the GOM and moves NE across florida.

Here is a piece from there 4:00am discussion...

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...PULLING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THERE COULD BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE JET ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY. SO ONLY A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OVER THE
CWA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE HWO
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
185. HIEXPRESS
3:53 AM GMT on December 21, 2006
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST WED DEC 20 2006

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF PERIOD. UPPER LOW NOW OVER NM WILL WEAKEN TO OPEN WAVE
TROUGH AND EXIT UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DAY-4/SAT. MEANWHILE SPEED
MAX NOW OVER NWRN PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS SWRN CONUS
AND NRN MEX...EVOLVING INTO EITHER VERY STRONG OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OR
CLOSE LOW OVER TX BY DAY-5/SUN. THIS MAY INDUCE FRONTAL-WAVE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER GULF...WITH RESULTING LOW MOVING NEWD OVER SERN
CONUS DURING DAYS 5-7/SUN-TUE TIME FRAME. LACK OF PRIOR/SIGNIFICANT
COLD INTRUSIONS IN CENTRAL/ERN GULF INDICATES ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR
MAY SUPPORT SVR EVENT GIVEN OPTIMAL TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM TO INDUCE
FAVORABLE SHEAR. UNCERTAINTIES ON CHARACTER OF UPPER TROUGH AND OF
LOW LEVEL RESPONSE PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM...THOUGH SOME
CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SVR EVENT LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN SERN STATES.

..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2006
_______________________________________________
December tornadoes are rare but not unheard of in Florida, but in Alabama...
AL Tdo

Worth keeping an eye on.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
184. weatherboykris
12:47 AM GMT on December 21, 2006
The 12z GFS backed off on the Florida snowstorm.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
183. 1900hurricane
12:14 AM GMT on December 21, 2006
Newer MIMIC



Bondo looks like he is getting his act together.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
182. Patrap
11:10 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
A most interesting forecast if I may say..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
181. Patrap
11:06 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
4
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
180. stormchasher
11:06 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
This is a awsome Picture of BondoLink
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
179. Patrap
11:04 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Winter Solstice tommorrow.Suns lowest angle of the Year in Northern Hemisphere.Can ya feel the Planet tilt?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
177. Skyepony (Mod)
10:04 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
That Mimic doesn't look as intense as the 904mb it was thought of lastnight. Where are those islands it came near on there?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034
176. Patrap
9:45 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
My wet exit..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
175. Patrap
9:42 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Moisture is not a problem Here today,,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125418
171. 1900hurricane
9:05 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
MIMIC IS AVAILABLE FOR BONDO!!!!!!!!!!!!



It's a little old, though.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
167. 1900hurricane
8:40 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
If anyone has any intrest in my giant eyewall resarch, if you have a question, or just want to say hi, come over to my blog.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
164. CybrTeddy
8:00 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
It is sad though, Looks how uncemmentrical Bondo is now last night it looked like Wilma and now it looks like somthing like Florence as a CAT 1
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
163. CybrTeddy
7:58 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Eye for Bondo starting to pop out u can see some clearing in the eye area. EWRC is eaither done or almost done.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
161. CybrTeddy
7:55 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Hmm what *IF* we see a Wilma in 07, or somthing stronger than wilma or Tip.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
158. Skyepony (Mod)
7:11 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Looks like Bondo's rain rate around in the core is about 1/2" per hr.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034
157. 1900hurricane
6:56 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
The asymitricalness can be seen on the Infared now.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
156. 1900hurricane
6:55 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
The WindSat also got a decent shot of the cyclone.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
155. 1900hurricane
6:50 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Latest microwave images are in, and they're good!





Judging by those images, I would say Bondo is still weakining. The eye is oblong and the entire system is asymitrical, with most of the good structure off to the west side.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
154. Skyepony (Mod)
5:27 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Happy Holidays Weather456!

That's a classic there MichaelSTL...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034
153. Cavin Rawlins
4:59 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Cant stay...later
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
152. Cavin Rawlins
4:59 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
all is well h23
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
151. pottery
4:57 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
yeah Skye, I had a loud Laff..........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
150. hurricane23
4:57 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Hey weather456 whats been up with up with you?Happy holidays to you to.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
148. Cavin Rawlins
4:51 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Just checking in to tell every one have a merry christmas and happy 2007....i will back soon........and check out my latest blog entry.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
147. Skyepony (Mod)
4:48 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Actually you can't trust The Onion. They just make up funny stories, get happy with photoshop & call it the news, all in fun. Pretty funny Al Gore with his blow torch pack & all.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034
146. hurricane23
4:44 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
NRL has winds at 105kts...
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
145. 1900hurricane
4:33 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Looks like the large eye is about to clear out.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
144. pottery
4:29 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Good afternoon. I see a recent post from Randrewl, showing that Al Gore ideas have been debunked. Shuks man, Now I have to admit that I thought he was on to something and now we are both discredited. You just cant trust anyone these days. Not even me.........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
143. 1900hurricane
4:00 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
That's a little odd...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
142. Skyepony (Mod)
3:56 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Up til 3 hrs ago things seemed fine...Suddenly we got no wind data from the Met-5.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034
141. 1900hurricane
3:41 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
The very low resolution, which is less than 6 hrs old, doesn't show a complete eyewall...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
140. 1900hurricane
3:39 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Never mind. I found a better one.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
138. 1900hurricane
3:37 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Topogrophy of Madagascar.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
137. HurricaneTracker01
3:33 PM GMT on December 20, 2006
Population density map of Africa.

q
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 126

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.