TD 10 poised to make a comeback

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2005

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The remains of TD 10 have survived some pretty significant shearing winds, and the system continues to spin and track west-northwestward at 10 mph towards the northernmost Leeward Islands. Wind shear over the remains of TD 10 has decreased substantially over the past 24 hours--from 15-25 knots yesterday down to 10-20 knots today. The satellite presentation has improved considerably, with frequent bursts of deep convection firing up to the north and east of the center. However, the strong upper-level winds from the west to southwest that are shearing the system are not letting any of the convection that fires up persist. Surface winds measured by theQuikscat satellite show peak velocities below tropical depression strength--20-25 knots north of the center. Global models indicate that the system may enter a region of lower wind shear tonight or Thursday, which will likely allow the convection in the system to persist and the system to re-organize into Tropical Depression 10 again.


If TD 10 does reform, the current thinking of the track models is that the system will continue to the west-northwest under the influence of a strong high pressure ridge over Bermuda. This track would bring the system north of Puerto Rico and near the Bahama Islands by early next week. A strong trough is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. on Monday, which may induce a more northwesterly motion five days from now. However, there may be some hostile winds and dry air for the storm to overcome on its trek towards the U.S.--both the GFDL and GFS models dissipate the system by Saturday. The SHIPS intensity model disagrees, strengthening the system into Tropical Storm Jose with 60 mph winds by Saturday.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Irene has begun its gradual weakening as it encounters cooler waters and high wind shear. It will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm this evening as it races towards Greenland and becomes an extratropical storm tomorrow. The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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116. aquak9
5:48 PM EDT on August 17, 2005
yes water temp is getting too uncomfortable even at the beach, it is like a warm bathtub. The st john's river up here is full of algae ( I don't ever remember it being this bad) and they have put up warnings to stay out of the river, and not eat the fish.
The heat has been oppressive what with 97 plus temps everyday, a fresh breeze would be greatly appreciated, but the heat just builds up the energy till you feel like the air is almost buzzing.
Too much energy. It's gotta go somewhere....
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115. whitewabit (Mod)
9:44 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
stsimonsislandgaguy
if air temps increase 5 to 10 deg,this would increase season length buy a month or more, and with the higher water temps you could see a few mega storms that would cause distruction well inland. cound see 25 or more storms with half being mager hurricanes. just my thoughts
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 33217
114. CFLweather
9:44 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
The upper level low that is causing the shear is moving westward, and in turn lessening the shear on remenants of TD10, only adding fuel to the potential fire that will be Jose in the coming days. Your definately right MIAWX, the water is way too warm for comfort, I don't really like to fathom the possiblities of what it may lead to.
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113. MIAWX
9:46 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
southbeachdude, yey, any storm to approach our area I think would rapidly intensify over the local warm atlantic waters, of course dependent on shear. I have the jitters because of the HOT waters and the fact that MIA-FLL escaped last years wrath. '05 might be payback time.
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112. southbeachdude
9:43 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
MIAWX....that is what scares me being down here in southeast FL. The local weather is not talking about the storm much but they are talking about the 90 degree ocean. I do not think that will be good if this storm gets close. I am amazed how many of the early model run are aiming at southeast FL. We are definitely watching this one closely.

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111. MIAWX
9:37 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
I agree CFLweather, should be busy. We better hope shear remains above average, given the hot water temps out there (90 off miami beach!). There is so much heat energy surrounding FL that it's giving me the jitters.
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109. weatherguy03
9:36 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
No prob, your a Florida guy, so your cool with me..lol..Oh definately I agree CFL.
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108. CFLweather
9:32 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
No rudeness was intended, sorry if it seemed that way. I'm just saying that this year has been very impressive thus far, and the late August/early September peak looks to be busy.

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107. weatherguy03
9:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Oh i know CFL. Every wave that has had just a small chance has made it. It was just my attempt at alittle humor.
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106. MIAWX
9:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Hi everyone, new to this blog, my first post. I strongly believe this will re-develop into TD10 by tomorrow. This system actually stayed in tact through some pretty harsh conditions, and they are becoming less and less harsh. The entire SE U.S. coast would be vulnerable should this develop. Right now the way I see it, particularly North Carolina would be at greatest risk. May approach FL, but think trough will recurve it. I will say models have been taking it more poleward than has been the case.
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105. EvanKisseloff
5:21 PM EDT on August 17, 2005
There is some banding on the northern part of the system. It does look to be getting organized, but you can't pick out the circulation like you could the day it was classified as a depression. Anyone have a close up link? For "TD 10"?
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104. weatherguy03
9:25 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
But actually if you live on the coast here in Florida like I do, you should have a hurricane prepardness kit all ready to go by now. It's best to do this beforehand. I usually get mine ready in June.
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103. CFLweather
9:24 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Weatherguy03-I don't think anyone is really jumping the gun on this one, can you think of any impressive waves this year that have not become a named storm?
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102. weatherguy03
9:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Well southbeach its almost dinnertime so I would say soon if you are hungry..lol..But no kidding, its way too early for that. Just monitor the situation for the rest of the week. By the weekend we will have a better idea.
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101. miamihurricane12
9:20 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Listen, nobody knows how strong andrew was at landfall. It blew off all of the hurricane proof radar equipment and wind gauges but the last recorded wind gust at the nhc was 164 mph and they are 25 miles north of where the eye wall hit florida city. The air force base go completely destroyed and there wind gauge blew off at 203 but that could have been a tornado, but i say that andrew was worse than camille and gilbert
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100. CFLweather
9:22 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
I would wait at least until Friday, the earlier the better, to beat the lines you know.

Thats if it stays on track until then, then hopefully the models might be more trustworthy with this storm.
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99. weatherguy03
9:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Well the funny thing about all of this discussion is, is that we dont even have a depression yet..lol..You never know TD 10 may have the last laugh.
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98. southbeachdude
9:08 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
So when should we start getting food and water in Miami?
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97. Jedkins
9:17 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Yes that is what I am saying I think Florida but way too far out still and we don't know yet.
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96. Jedkins
9:14 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
You don't even know for sure if those other storms are strong as they are estimated to be and we know that most destructive hurrican on record is Andrew so I will say Andrew Camille and then Gilbert.Even Cammile is uncertain but I cant leave that one out lol.
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95. CFLweather
8:57 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
The models are putting this much further south and west than Irene, so it is something we should be paying very close attention to (Florida looks to be in the crosshairs as of now, if anything comes of the remenants of TD10). I really have a feeling that the intensity models (like SHIPS) are a little on the conservative side.

The thunderstorm complex that is left over from TD10 is continuing to show signs that it is slowly organizing, even though it is still dealing with shear coming from the west. The shear looks like it will calm down quite a bit in the northeast Caribbean in the coming days, allowing remenants of TD10 to continue to organize.

UKM, NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC runs from today are all showing a high pressure ridge dip all the way from Bermuda towards the southeast coastline (Florida, Georgia, Carolina's), lending credence to the guidance track models that are mostly pushing the remenants of TD10 to the Bahamas. After the Bahamas, its a coin toss where this potential storm could go. Convential wisdom leads me to believe if this storm can make it far enough west to the Bahamas at all, then the southeast US coastline is looking at a possible landfall sometime early next week if everything plays out in the storms favor.

This is just speculation at this point, but as days go by we do get a better idea of where it may be going.
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94. StormJunkie
9:03 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Glad your looking out for us here in the lowcountry Orion! LOL.

I'll ride anything out as long as I am in a brick home with minimal surronding trees!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
93. weatherguy03
9:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Hey Jed, I am alittle uncertain right now about the bermuda high. I am always alittle skeptical when the models try and bring a trough into the SE US this time of year. Even the latest discussion here in Jax started hesitating about bringing the trough through Florida. So we will see what kind of fine tuning will be made to the forecast in the coming days.
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92. weatherboyfsu
9:13 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
90 percent that it develops into a tropical storm and goes out to sea.....the other 10 you can divide up anyway you want......lol
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91. Jedkins
9:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Everyone has a different oppinion and if I think if this does develop the highest U.S. landfall probability will be florida but it is too early to tell and even when it starts to narrow down these things are hard to predict and my oppion is not anymore worthy than anyone else prediction unless they are just plain out guessing and being silly...
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90. weatherboyfsu
9:08 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
What up guys......My top 3 Hurricanes.....Gilbert-1988, Camillee-1969, and the 1935 storm that hit the keys...those also had the 3 lowest pressures ever recorded in the western hemisphere....i believe gilbert got down to 888 milibars if im not mistaken...
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89. Jedkins
9:07 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Florida:30 uncertain:60 rest of southeast coast:10, that is my thinking and I will continue to narrow it down as the days go as long as it develops into something which it will likely do.
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88. miamihurricane12
9:07 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
evan i know that u live in datona and want a storm historically the storms go north or west, last year when ft. pierce got hit that is not a common thing but i would give my oddsfor daytona probably 20 to 25 percent if it hits florida but in the overall probably 10 percent....but i am always wrong bout these things so..
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87. punkasshans
4:07 PM EST on August 17, 2005
30% chance does not develop, 70% does

IF it does develop, a definate threat to the south east coast. However, it is WAY too early to predict where exactly it will go. I wouldnt doubt it stays south and goes towards florida, however if that front drops a little further south than predicted we could see a storm that never gets even close to the US. Either way, the Bahamas need to keep a close eye on this, its going to either go right over them or just to their north. (IF IT DEVELOPS)
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86. LSUHurricaneHunter
9:08 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
weatherguy03, here it is Link
and another good should it make depression status again
Link
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85. Jedkins
9:06 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
See the model group is already a bit ominous for florida but it is moving more west than anticipated with a very strong bermuda high which like I have said the model group I think takes it to far northwestward for the strength of this high.
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84. STORMTOP
9:05 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
i say by tomorrow evan thats the one we are going to really have to watch...
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83. weatherguy03
9:06 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Thank you Punk..:)
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82. punkasshans
4:06 PM EST on August 17, 2005
weatherguy:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/#Atlantic%20Guidance
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81. weatherguy03
9:04 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Yeah right now I will go with 20 Florida, 40 NC/SC, 30 Out to sea, 10 never develops. Anyone else?
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80. Jedkins
9:01 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
This storm for one has continued to progress farther and farther west than anticipated and the high is also stronger than anticipated and is currently moving more west than the whole model group,that is the reson why I am taking about florida but is still to early right now.
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79. EvanKisseloff
5:04 PM EDT on August 17, 2005
miami, what about central florida say Daytona Beach Area? What are the odds for that area?
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78. weatherguy03
9:02 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Hey Punkass can you give me the main site to were you get that model picture. I like looking at that one as well, plus the ones in motion.
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77. EvanKisseloff
5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2005
That low in the central atlantic, how soon could it become TD 11?
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76. miamihurricane12
8:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
mommy always told me it is better to be safe than sorry....lol....in all seriousness i think that it will either hit south florida or head north to the carolinas, and my odds are 70:30 (miami:carolinas)
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75. weatherguy03
9:00 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Nah Jed, Storm has a CAT 5 forming soon off of Africa thats gonna hit the US...What a stretch in late August..lol..Ok I will behave now.
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74. Jedkins
8:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
That must have been one heck of a storm like Andrew but maybe a bit stronger,the exact strength can only be a estimation and that is it but I am certain It was a category 5 and a 5 is like no storm you will ever expeirience.
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73. STORMTOP
8:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
jed im agreeing with you im just not ready to call what part of florida yet...
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72. weatherguy03
8:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Man you guys are on top of me today..lol..thank you..Sorry I am at work so sometimes I try and juggle a hundred things plus look at the blog.
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71. punkasshans
3:53 PM EST on August 17, 2005
How about a much better link of the most current models just out:

Models
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70. Jedkins
8:56 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
I know that STORMTOP I have said this so many times I dont need to so that anymore lol,I am sure y'all already know that it is too early to tell yet I will continue to stress that it is too far away but not every darn post stormtop lol.
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69. weatherguy03
8:58 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Ok ok sorry guys..lol
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68. whitewabit (Mod)
8:54 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
I asked the same question about Camille where he rode out the storm. the eye passed over where i was and I can tell you Everyone should evac cat ll and above
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 33217
67. napleswx
8:55 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
I have to agree with miamihurricane12, the models he is showing is the most recent.
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66. Jedkins
8:53 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Weather guy that is the old model run group...The group is positioned further back and miami hurricane has the most recent version.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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