TD 10 poised to make a comeback

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2005

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The remains of TD 10 have survived some pretty significant shearing winds, and the system continues to spin and track west-northwestward at 10 mph towards the northernmost Leeward Islands. Wind shear over the remains of TD 10 has decreased substantially over the past 24 hours--from 15-25 knots yesterday down to 10-20 knots today. The satellite presentation has improved considerably, with frequent bursts of deep convection firing up to the north and east of the center. However, the strong upper-level winds from the west to southwest that are shearing the system are not letting any of the convection that fires up persist. Surface winds measured by theQuikscat satellite show peak velocities below tropical depression strength--20-25 knots north of the center. Global models indicate that the system may enter a region of lower wind shear tonight or Thursday, which will likely allow the convection in the system to persist and the system to re-organize into Tropical Depression 10 again.


If TD 10 does reform, the current thinking of the track models is that the system will continue to the west-northwest under the influence of a strong high pressure ridge over Bermuda. This track would bring the system north of Puerto Rico and near the Bahama Islands by early next week. A strong trough is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. on Monday, which may induce a more northwesterly motion five days from now. However, there may be some hostile winds and dry air for the storm to overcome on its trek towards the U.S.--both the GFDL and GFS models dissipate the system by Saturday. The SHIPS intensity model disagrees, strengthening the system into Tropical Storm Jose with 60 mph winds by Saturday.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Irene has begun its gradual weakening as it encounters cooler waters and high wind shear. It will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm this evening as it races towards Greenland and becomes an extratropical storm tomorrow. The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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366. whitewabit (Mod)
9:22 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
the hurricane center in miami in report at 5:30edt that 10 had turned in to a tropical wave
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31392
365. StormJunkie
3:55 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
When would we get upper air data around TD 10 to feed the mindless models?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16541
364. 147257
3:39 PM GMT on August 18, 2005

ok when we know the results?
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
363. STORMTOP
3:37 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
RECON IS GOIN G TO HEAD DOWN THERE TODAY...its not been cancelled....i hope they find a depression..
362. 147257
2:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
yeah i'm watching that one too hope it comes a bit closer so i can have what rain and wind but not too close
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
361. 147257
2:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
happily i found this site so i know what i have to do
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
360. STORMTOP
2:36 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
well 147 you are over due for one...
359. STORMTOP
2:35 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
im keeping my eyes on 18.0n and 82.0w...bears watching little shear and hot temps...could do something in a few days..
358. 147257
2:33 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
yeah ok the last one was in 1877 and they said once in the hundread years a hurricane will hit curacao :-(
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
357. STORMTOP
2:30 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
i wouldnt be to sure this is 2005 remember..if one would hit i would think it would be in late october or early november...
356. 147257
2:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
youre not nice stomrtop ;) i thought i could relax two weeks :) but i dont think a hurricane wil hil hit curacao this year
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
355. STORMTOP
2:25 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
i would not all be surprised if they cancelled the recon today...it just does not look symetrical in anyway just a blob...
354. STORMTOP
2:20 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
it doesnt storm not for a while
353. STORMTOP
2:19 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
no 147 this week coming up will be hell week....
352. StormJunkie
2:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Looks like TD10 has started moving a little more n of due west in the past 2 hrs. Convection looks like it is starting to die down and spread out though. When does it look like the shear will die down around this system?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16541
351. 147257
2:13 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
2.5 weeks remaining :/ before we go in the worst month
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
350. STORMTOP
2:06 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
you know irene looks pretty cute this morning...what a storm that would of been if she wouldnt of had all the problems...
349. STORMTOP
2:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
right now it has a lot of convection but its very disorganized...it doesnt look like a tropical system...shear must still be taking a toll on this one...they may even cancel the recon...
348. STORMTOP
1:58 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
yes naples the storm has to develop first...
347. STORMTOP
1:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
lol the models would lose there head if they had one...
346. napleswx
1:56 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Sure looks that way miamihurricane12, but from what I can tell many still think it will make that turn, if this storm even develops.
345. miamihurricane12
1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
this group of models does not look good for south florida
Link

It looks to be organizing, next few hours before the hunter gets out of there are going to be interesting. See if the convection holds up or not.
344. punkasshans
1:29 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
The new models lost the huge wave that was supposed to come off of Africa. . .looks like we wont have such a large wave after all.
343. weatherguy03
1:10 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Here is more information about trough moving towards SE US by end of weekend from local JAX discussion...LONG TERM...GFS NOW HAS A SERIES OF ATYPICALLY STRONG SHORTWAVES
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATE.
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL MAKING IT DIFFICULT
FOR ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEX DOES DROP TEMPS AND MOISTURE VALUES
BY NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON SUCH A SOLUTION.

Some of the models do want to develop a strong trough in this region. Hard to believe this time of year. But something to keep in the back of your mind.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
342. cjnew
1:08 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
oh wow! i just looked at those models and they are very split up. There are models taking it west and those that dont take it west take nw then n....happy medium?
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
341. weatherguy03
12:52 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Of course with all that said, the shear around this system still looks terrible today...Link...We may have minimal depression today at the most.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
340. evolution
12:51 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
yes indeed weatherguy. very difficult to predict the outcome or strength of either the TROF or the High. Makes for a very fluid forecast period. only time will tell. i also touch on this a bit in the evolution blog.
339. weatherguy03
12:48 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Also looking at all the models this morning, it really is going to be a battle between bermuda high ridging back towards the west and trough moving towards the East Coast. As the trough moves east the bermuda high builds west. Compared to yesterday's models runs the bermuda high is stronger, also could be why the models have shifted south.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
338. weatherguy03
12:43 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Evolution were you reading my mind..lol...
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
337. weatherguy03
12:42 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
Current model forecast...Link...It looks like the shallow models take it more south, which makes sense, if the storm continues to be this weak. My thinking is if it follows that southern path it will be weak. BUT, if it was weak and followed that path it could slip inot the gulf...hmmmm..Something to think about...Personally I still think it heads more NW...Time will tell.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
336. evolution
12:40 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
its the slower movement of the storm, but even more so, its a very weak storm. weaker storms follow low levels winds, stronger storms follow upper level patterns. the shallow BAMM models do a much better job at forecasting weak storms, thus the shift to the south.......at least this is part of the reason. mostly likely they have many other variables that go into making this shift.
335. 147257
12:35 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
which models?
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
334. StormJunkie
12:29 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
What is causing the southward shift in the models?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16541
333. 147257
12:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
ARIBBEAN...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N82W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ENE TO OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING NE
FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER UPPER AIR AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLING OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH
TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF
13N80W AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N71W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 12.5N71.5W THEN W TO 12N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE CARIBBEAN W OF 69W WITH
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION S OF 12N W OF 80W AND OVER PANAMA. THE
E CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE UNDER W UPPER FLOW
FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING FRI INTO
SAT.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
332. 147257
12:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2005
ok now talked enough about TD 10 can take some time i want to know what you guys think about the wave above columbia looks seerious out there
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
331. Weatherwatcher007
11:37 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
I have to go to work so I will make this quick. TD 10 made it through the night so it has a better chance of developing since the shear is relaxing. The key today is the recon flight. Before I go read this. . .

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT NEAR OR TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
330. fireweed
10:44 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
Now Irene looks like the heavy cloudcover that has been sitting on top of Scandinavia for much of July and given us appaling summer weather. Wet, cold and miserable.
329. StormJunkie
9:36 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
It does look like TD 10 will live to see another day. The convection seems to be developing pretty well near the center. Look at the southward shift in all of the models! What is everyones take on this?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16541
328. CFLweather
9:29 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
Remenants of TD10 look much healthier, compared to 5 hours ago. Some were talking of its demise because of its apparent loss of almost all convection, but I guess this goes to show that this thing has a will to survive. Thunderstorms have formed again on the eastern side of the circulation, and the cloud tops are continuing to cool as the hours pass. Center of cirulation is around 18N60W heading WNW.

Elsewhere, between 10-20N 70-80W large flare ups of thunderstorms, some rather intense, have formed. Could just be flare ups, or something that may try to get organized, its still way too early to know.

A rather impressive thunderstorm complex over western Africa, near 15N10W, is being picked up by some of the models as a potential depression once is gets west of the Cape Verde islands.

A tropical wave near 18N35W isn't showing any signs of organization, but should be watched as it continues to head west.
327. hurricanecrab
6:01 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
well, everybody.... this old B******d has gotta go to bed. It's nearly 1:00 a.m. Great talking with everyone. G'nite
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
326. cieldumort
6:01 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
gotcha ...I believe the good doctor was simply implying that there were no immediate threats or very impressive candidates off of africa tonight... essentially, when you are broadcasting weather forecasts around the globe you don't want to sound the alarm bell everytime there is yet another candidate .. i really think that few, if any, ocm's have such a fantastic grasp of the tropics as Dr. Lyons does
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 39
325. hurricanecrab
5:59 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
wabit - military no more.
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
324. hurricanecrab
5:58 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
wabit - the cave is 80+ feet above high tide. We have another closer to our house that is 57 feet above HT, but I've yet to build a staircase to it. Maximum elevation here is 140 feet.
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
323. whitewabit (Mod)
5:57 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
hurricanecrab

in the military
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31392
322. hurricanecrab
5:56 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
ha ha Wildd No use trying to make me feel better :)
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
321. whitewabit (Mod)
5:55 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
hurricanecrab

how high in elevation is the cave u go to
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31392
320. hurricanecrab
5:53 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
Wabit - ahhhh I miss the coolth..... -65... with a wind chill of - 82 no doubt.... I spent several years in Alaska... if we could just import a little coolth for a few MONTHS
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
319. willdd1979
5:53 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
what I wasn't even thought of yet in '58'matter of fact neither was my mother! It's ok one day I'll be older too.
318. hurricanecrab
5:49 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
Wildd - get used to it ...... I was born in '58 (why do I feel there ought to be an 'aught' before that?)
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
317. whitewabit (Mod)
5:49 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
willdd1979

no that was the temperature notice the minus sigh and if the were years only a few off
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31392
316. willdd1979
5:47 AM GMT on August 18, 2005
if those are what yrs. you lived in those places in parenthesis i feel like a baby in here lol.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.