Space Shuttle blazes into space; Utor pounds Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on December 10, 2006

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The Space Shuttle Discovery lifted off last night in a rare and impressive nighttime launch, beating the weather forecast that called for only a 30% chance of success. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss took some fantastic photos of the event.

Yet another typhoon for the Philippines
Typhoon Utor (called Seniang in the Philippines) became the 5th major typhoon to hit the storm-weary Philippines this season, when it intensified suddenly last night from a Category 1 to a Category 3 typhoon (Utor is the Marshallese word for a squall line). The storm put on the burst of intensification as it approached San Jose on Mindoro Island, where the pressure dropped to 985 mb and top winds of 50 mph were recorded. There are no damage reports from this hardest-hit island yet, but Utor killed 3 and left 3 missing when it initially came ashore as a Category 1 typhoon in eastern Samar province at noon Saturday. Utor brought much less rain than its predecessor, Super Typhon Durian. Rainfall estimates from Utor (Figure 1) were in the 4-6 inch range for a 24 hour period. Durian dumped up to 10 inches in 24 hours. It is unlikely that the rains of Utor caused significant loss of life due to major mudslides and flash floods, but many more Philippinos will join the ranks of the 300,000 left homeless by Super Typhoon Durian. Utor did not trigger new mudslides along the flanks of the Mayon Volcano where over 1,000 people died in Super Typhoon Durian. Utor may intensify now that it is over the warm, open waters of the South China Sea. The typhoon is expected to turn north and threaten China and Taiwan later this week. NOAA has some nice satellite imagery of the storm at their West Pacific floater imagery page.


Figure 1. Rainfall estimates for Typhoon Utor from NOAA.

Super Typhoon Durian left 1339 dead or missing the Philippines, injured 2000, destroyed 118,000 homes, and damaged 212,000 homes. In Vietnam, Durian killed 89, injured 1370, destroyed 35,000 homes, and damaged another 182,000 homes. Total damage was estimated at about $31 million in the Philippines.

Jeff Masters

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171. ProgressivePulse
6:56 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Afternoon All! Lower level convergance is not as broad as this morning and more focused on the area in question in the NW Carrib.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
170. MisterPerfect
6:49 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Watch and listen LIVE! to the shuttle mission onNASA TV with this link...Windows Media Viewer is the best one..
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
169. Patrap
6:42 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
The 10Day GFSx..showing the Fla event...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
168. Patrap
6:41 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
A Rutgers link..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
167. 882MB
6:39 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
THE NEW 12UTC GFS HAS COME OUT AND STILL DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH MOVES OVER FLORIDA SOMETIME BY THE END OF THIS WEEK!HOPE ITS AGOOD RAINMAKER BECAUSE WE ARE DRY!
Member Since: September 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
166. Patrap
6:39 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
The condo that the video below was shot from ..is the One on the left in this view from the dry side of the 17th St. Canal..around Sept 14th.The sealed breach is on the right ..and water being pumped out of the city proper.5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
165. Patrap
6:35 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Here the ONLY video period..Of the 17th St. Canal failing..This was shot by fireman in the Marina Lake towers condo..!.5 miles east of Me.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
164. Frozencanuck
6:31 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Thank you. This helps to clarify things a bit. May there never be another Katrina for New Orleans.
Member Since: December 8, 2006 Posts: 42 Comments: 4738
163. Patrap
6:21 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
By looking at the Katrina Local landfall radar loop..one can see how the water was driven in to the Lake by the Cyclonic flow.Notice the clock at the end of the Loop.Its 0900am cst.The hour the Levees failed here.As the storm was due east of my area.Its disturLinkbing still for me to run it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
162. Patrap
6:16 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
The Katrina Lake Surge on the S Shore..was 17ft..Imagine the Bay St.Louis..or Waveland surge of 27-30 ft here.Thats the Nightmare scenario.Katrina wasnt the Big one here.We were on the west side.Luckily...if I may say.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
161. Patrap
6:14 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
The water would just rise to its Surge Height.But..Im sure that if something came again like Katrina..Those who now know wouldnt hesitate to evac...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
160. Patrap
6:12 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
The south shore Levees are 19 ft...The Whole system is designed for only a cat-3..Anything Higher requires everyone Out and Above the Lake..period.If Katrina would have slipped 30 miles more west.Well..they would still be pumping it out.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
159. Frozencanuck
6:08 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Patrap: Just a question..if another storm surge should come in the city of New Orleans like it did when Katrina hit, where will all the displaced water go when all these levee gates are closed. I would think that still there would be flooding from breaches in those weak spots and the levees are not high enough to contain all that water....
Member Since: December 8, 2006 Posts: 42 Comments: 4738
157. Patrap
5:40 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
For those interested How the Corps of Engineers Designs is coming along here.With an overview of How we stay dry.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
156. ProgressivePulse
3:55 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Looks to be a SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY opening up in the shear catagory, still 15 to 20kts though.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
155. Skyepony (Mod)
3:47 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
I see I'm not the only one salivating over FL rain:)

Interesting on the models as well is over toward the Azores ~ Phase analisis for the NOGAPS & the GFS.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 38111
154. Patrap
3:30 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
The 10day GFSx showing the Storm doing the rain thing over Florida..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
153. 882MB
3:28 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
IF YOU SEE THE WESTER CARRIBEAN SATELLITE PICTURE YOU CAN ALREADY SEE THIS WEEKS RAIN MAKER IN THE MAKING RIGHT BY YUCATAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH! ANYWAYS WE NEED THE RAIN HERE IN S.FLA!
Member Since: September 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
152. ProgressivePulse
3:19 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Yes, It would be nice to log in some precip.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
150. ProgressivePulse
2:25 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Morning Rand! Could be an interesting week shaping up!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
147. ProgressivePulse
1:42 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
There are some 45 to 50kt winds down around the Yucatan but, nothing at the surface right now. TPC surface map shows a low @ 48 hrs but looses it at 72.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
146. Patrap
1:05 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
Saints Fans this Monday Morning!" width="425" height="350" alt="5" />
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
145. 882MB
12:15 PM GMT on December 11, 2006
SIGNS OF EL NINO ARE APPROACHING I JUST READ THE ORLANDO, FL DISCUSSION AND THERE SAYING THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE LATE THIS WEEK LEADING TO A LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF AND BRING SOME BAD WEATHER TO FLORIDA!
Member Since: September 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
144. TayTay
9:23 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
So hard to read those, Bappit.
143. Patrap
4:33 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
One mo Beer and Milk & Cookies!...LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
142. Patrap
4:33 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Saints 42...dallas 17..FINAL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
140. bappit
3:41 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Same web site, story on Durian aftermath. Not good news.

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
139. bappit
3:36 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Works great!

Here's an interesting link. Not exactly the troposphere, but I'm reminded of Buckminster Fuller's reply to the question of when man would go to space: "We are in space."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
136. bappit
3:11 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Hmmmm, got some sort of bounce page off your link, CycloneBuster.

Lots of moisture here in SE Texas to get pulled north. Houston forecast discussion calls it a warm front, but surface analysis shows a couple of weak waves in the Gulf.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
135. Frozencanuck
3:10 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Quick get Emmitt Smith to show these boys a few choice moves...maybe a few mambo steps or how to waltz away from those Saints and down the field to the goal post....LOL
Member Since: December 8, 2006 Posts: 42 Comments: 4738
134. weatherboykris
3:10 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
My new forecast is 40 as the low,55 as the high, anda 100% chance of rain
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
133. bappit
2:48 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Touchdown Saints.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
132. Wishcasterboy
2:17 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
It's not over til it's over.
131. Wishcasterboy
2:15 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Ah drats!
130. Patrap
2:13 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Its not too late to help...Heres HowLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
129. Patrap
2:11 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
The Saints are Coming...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
128. Patrap
2:10 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
er.another touchdown..Saints
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
125. Wishcasterboy
2:03 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Tie game.
124. Patrap
2:00 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
6:48..88yd drive,,Dats football.!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
123. Patrap
1:59 AM GMT on December 11, 2006
Saints TOUCHDOWN!!..P.S. The Dallas run was 77yards...not 80.2
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
121. Wishcasterboy
1:33 AM GMT on December 11, 2006

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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