New NHC Director to be announced today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on December 06, 2006

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The new director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be named today during a press conference scheduled to begin at 2:30pm EST. Max Mayfield, 58, NHC director since 2000, is stepping down in January. The difficult hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 wore him out, he said, and he wanted to retire to spend more time with his family. Who can blame him? Director of NHC is a very demanding job even in the off season--Max stated that he spent about four months traveling during December through May attending various conferences and hurricane awareness functions. I'll be very sorry to see Max go--his combination of forecasting skills, ease of communication with the public, and dedication to his work made him a great NHC director.


Max Mayfield, retiring National Hurricane Center director. Image credit: NOAA.

Most of the senior hurricane specialists at NHC in line to take over from Max declined to apply for the job, and it appears that first the first time ever, someone from outside the NHC or NOAA's Hurricane Research Division will get the job. Speculation currently centers on Bill Proenza, 62, director of the National Weather Service's Southern Region, which includes Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Wunderblogger Margie Kieper will be dialing into today's press conference, and plans to post a blog shortly after 3pm EST announcing the new NHC director in her View From the Surface blog. Tune in then!

Typhoon Durian is no more
The violent rampage of Typhoon Durian has finally come to end. Durian made landfall yesterday in Thailand's southern province of Chumphon as a tropical depression, causing heavy rain but no significant damage or injuries. Durian dissipated while making landfall, and will trouble the world no longer. The typhoon killed 61 people in its sweep past southern Vietnam, mostly due to high winds that collapsed buildings. Durian destroyed or damaged over 120,000 homes in Vietnam, and sank 850 fishing boats. The toll in the Philippines stands at 1266 dead or missing, the fourth highest toll ever recorded from a typhoon there. Durian destroyed 76,000 homes and damaged 154,000, and the estimated $600 million in damage was the highest ever for a Philippines typhoon.


Figure 2. Final rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite for Typhoon Durian. 250 mm = about 10 inches of rain.

Next blog
Friday, I'll discuss Dr. Bill Gray's first forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, which is scheduled to be released late in the morning Friday.

Jeff Masters

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82. hurricane23
2:19 PM GMT on December 07, 2006
Good morning,

CPC says El NINO will be around threw may 2007...

Most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, including the NCEP Climate forecast System (CFS), indicate that El Niņo conditions will peak during the NH winter (December 2006-February 2007), followed by weakening during March-May 2007.

MORE HERE
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
81. Patrap
1:06 PM GMT on December 07, 2006
Max size for Pics here is 640 x 480,..thanx
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
80. 1900hurricane
12:35 PM GMT on December 07, 2006
Wow! Thank you for all that information aspiringstat! One question though. Would it be possible to scale the images down so the blog doesn't get so stretched out? Thanks!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
79. aspiringstat
11:45 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
Damaged houses
75. TyphoonHunter
8:16 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
TayTay...yes, i think it's possible. That's why i'm scoping out possible intercept positions. Cebu seems like the best place. Will see what happens in the next 12 hours and maybe I'll fly to Phillipines. Early days!
74. TayTay
6:48 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
Durian looks to be reforming. Almost looks like an eye, or maybe a gap in the convection?
.
73. TayTay
6:44 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
Rapid intensification, anyone?
72. TyphoonHunter
4:08 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
Right as has already been meantioned 93W is now a TD. Here's JMA's latest prognostic reasoning:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.1N 136.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=


71. V26R
4:05 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
Anyone know how long the launch window is for the next Shuttle Launch? Heard there are weather concerns now!
Mike
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
67. caneman
3:04 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
Caneman wishes death and destruction to all Pacific blobs; may the blobs be infested with dry air intrusion and upper level shearing winds.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
66. HIEXPRESS
3:00 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
flag
flag
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
65. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:00 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
wow either JTWC are mistaken but it is heading west at 15 knots

just three hours ago the JMA posted it was moving west slowly..??
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
64. Patrap
2:56 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
More cold air pouring South Into LouisianaLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
63. Patrap
2:54 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
LSU Tropical page...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
62. 882MB
2:53 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
WOW ANOTHER TYPHHON FOR THE PHILLIPINES IS THIS INDICATIVE OF EL NINO?
Member Since: September 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
61. LowerCal
2:49 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
JTWC Forecast has a typhoon as it reaches the Philippines
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
60. HIEXPRESS
2:43 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
LOL @ Floridafisherman

Hopefully 25W doesn't have time to intensify before reaching the Philippines, but it is compact, and apparently has no hindrance. Hope for the best for points beyond.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
59. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:40 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
30 knots 1006 hPa

here comes Utor.. =/
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45619
57. 882MB
2:31 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
HEY EVERYBODY I WAS READING THE BLOG A LITTLE EARLIER TO DAY AND SAW SOMEONE WROTE ABOUT THE ENSO EL NONI UPDATE THEY SAY IT MIGHT PEAK AROUND JANUARY FEBRUARY 2007, DOES ANYONE KNOW WHEN EL NINO PEAKED IN THE 1997-98 EL NINO SEASON?
Member Since: September 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
55. floridafisherman
2:30 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
i like maxfields pic of his permit. great fish!! in the spirit of fishing, i wanted to share a couple of pics of a friends and my catch a couple of weeks ago

Link
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
54. HIEXPRESS
2:04 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:59 PM EST on December 06, 2006. NASA telescope sees black hole..."The only way to explain such a luminous ultraviolet flare is if the black hole swallowed a star,"

That hardly qualifies as proof. It's like cave dwellers explaining lightning: "The spirits must be angry".

I was going to go fishing N of the Cape for the night launch, but I have to work. Maybe they'll wait:

MIKE SCHNEIDER
Associated Press

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - Clouds of concern gathered for Thursday night's liftoff of the space shuttle Discovery as NASA downgraded launch chances to 40 percent due to weather.

"The forecast has trended for the worse right now," said Kathy Winters, shuttle weather officer.

An expected cloud ceiling at 3,000 feet was the biggest obstacle for getting Discovery off the ground at 9:35 p.m. EST Thursday.

NASA won't launch with low clouds because officials want to track it visually and allow enough visibility in case the astronauts need to make a difficult emergency landing at the Kennedy Space Center's runway.

"It's a significant problem for us," Winters said.

The weather wasn't expected to be cooperating at the shuttle's emergency landing sites in Spain and France, either.

The forecast only gets worse for the following two days. Expected crosswinds and isolated showers at Kennedy Space Center reduced the chances of launch to 30 percent on Friday and 40 percent Saturday. The weather was expected to improve at the beginning of next week.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
53. Wishcasterboy
1:25 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
52. Tazmanian
1:17 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
93W is now TD 25W
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
51. Patrap
12:49 AM GMT on December 07, 2006
4
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
49. Wishcasterboy
11:49 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
45. Tazmanian
10:04 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
any one see my post?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
44. CybrTeddy
10:03 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
Hey also look at 94B not bad could become Deppresion.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
43. CybrTeddy
10:01 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
MISSION UPDATE



Shuttle Discovery Set for ISS Construction Flight
For 2:30 p.m. EST Tuesday November 28:

NASA's space shuttle Discovery is poised to launch towards the International Space Station (ISS) on Dec. 7 to continue assembly of the orbital laboratory.

Commanded by veteran shuttle flyer and NASA astronaut Mark Polansky, Discovery is set to launch its STS-116 mission on Dec. 7 at about 9:36 p.m. EST (0236 Dec. 8 GMT). Joining Polansky on the 12-day spaceflight are pilot William Oefelein and mission specialists Nicholas Patrick, Robert Curbeam, Joan Higginbotham, Sunita Williams and Christer Fuglesang of the European Space Agency.

The seven astronauts are poised to deliver a new truss segment to the ISS and rewire the orbital laboratory's electrical system. Williams will also relieve the Expedition 14 flight engineer Thomas Reiter during the mission, and will join the space station crew for a six-month stay.

NASA's STS-116 mission is expected to cap 2006 as the agency's third shuttle flight of the year and the second dedicated to ISS assembly. The space shuttle Atlantis visited the space station in September to resume orbital construction following the successful STS-121 return to flight mission aboard Discovery in July
This will be cool when it goes up.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
42. CybrTeddy
9:59 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
Hmm off Topic but I like this Video and its good music, Very Dramatic!
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
41. Tazmanian
9:59 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
NASA telescope sees black hole gulping remote star By Will Dunham
Tue Dec 5, 7:18 PM ET



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A giant black hole displaying horrifying table manners has been caught in the act of guzzling a star in a galaxy 4 billion light-years away, scientists using an orbiting NASA telescope said on Tuesday.

ADVERTISEMENT

For the past two years, scientists have monitored the dramatic events as the star, residing in a galaxy in the Bootes constellation, was ripped apart by the black hole.

Scientists used NASA's Galaxy Evolution Explorer, an orbiting telescope sensitive to two bands of ultraviolet wave lengths, to detect an ultraviolet flare coming from the center of a remote elliptical galaxy.

"This ultraviolet flare was from a star literally being ripped apart and swallowed by the black hole," Suvi Gezari of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena and lead author of the paper describing the findings in Astrophysical Journal Letters, said in an interview.

"This is the first time that we've actually been able to monitor the flare of radiation from such an event in detail. Only once every 10,000 years will a star pass close enough to a (galaxy's) central black hole to be ripped apart and swallowed in this manner," Gezari said.

The scientists hope the findings will give them a better understanding of black holes, objects whose gravity is so powerful even light cannot escape.

It is believed that super-massive black holes are located at the core of every galaxy. For example, Gezari said, the Milky Way galaxy in which our solar system resides has a dormant super-massive black hole at its center.

Scientists said in this case the unfortunate star strayed a bit too close to the black hole deep inside the galaxy, and was mutilated by the force of its gravity. They believe that parts of the star swirled around and then plunged into the black hole, which sent out the bright ultraviolet flare that the satellite detected.

Scientists continue to use the telescope to observe the ultraviolet light as it fades while the black hole snacks on the final table scraps from the devoured star.

"We looked at the galaxy in 2003 and there was no ultraviolet light coming from the galaxy at all," Gezari said. "And then in 2004, we suddenly saw this very bright source."

"The only way to explain such a luminous ultraviolet flare is if the black hole swallowed a star," Gezari said.

Caltech leads the Galaxy Evolution Explorer mission and is responsible for science operations and data analysis, while NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the mission and built the instrument.

The scientists also used data from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory, the Canada France Hawaii Telescope in Hawaii and the Keck Telescope in Hawaii.

lol

i got it from her

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
38. adb42
9:47 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
The remnant of Durian is subject to a tropical cyclone formation alert in the Andaman Sea, with a fair probability of regeneration.
Member Since: December 6, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
36. hurricane23
8:01 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
Here's Bill Proenza the new director of the NHC.



CLICK HERE for more.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
35. Skyepony (Mod)
7:57 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
I liked Ed too, but declined is declined. Hope he never regrets it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38194
34. Skyepony (Mod)
7:56 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
Thanks MisterPerfect, I don't see it anywhere else yet:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38194
33. hurricane23
7:56 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
Ed Rappaport said no thanks to the job offer as he said he wants to spent more time with family.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
32. MisterPerfect
7:54 PM GMT on December 06, 2006
I liked Ed Rappaport
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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