Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:33 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
As of 4pm EDT, the remains of TD 10 are still spinning, but the system is definitely suffering from strong west to southwesterly winds aloft that are shearing it. There is a low level circulation at about 17N 53W, and the shearing winds have ripped away a mid-level circulation that is about 100 miles to the east of the surface circulation. Some very isolated convection on the northeast and northwest sides of the surface circulation indicate that this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression. However, it is traversing the base of a large trough with some dry air and 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, so development today is unlikely. By Wednesday, the remains of TD 10 will have a better chance, as shear values will probably drop to the 10-20 knot range as it moves to the WNW between 10 and 15 mph and escapes the trough. I'd put the odds of it redeveloping into a tropical depression again at 50/50. The shear today may very well completly disrupt the circulation, making it an open wave that won't develop again.
Figure 1. Wind shear values over the remains of TD 10 were 20 - 25 knots at 8am EDT today (12 GMT), but are lower to the WNW.
Irene is looking the best it has ever looked, and latest satellite intensity estimates put it as a strong Category One hurricane with 90 mph sustained winds. Irene doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, though, as shearing winds and cold water will convert it to a regular extratropical storm by Thursday.
The Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean
The latest big cloud of African dust is now halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Thunderstorm activity in the ITCZ area just south of this dust cloud is unimpressive today. Stong upper-level winds associated with a large upper-level low pressure system cover most of the Caribbean, and tropical development here is unlikely today.
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