Remains of TD 10 still spinning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:33 PM GMT on August 16, 2005

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As of 4pm EDT, the remains of TD 10 are still spinning, but the system is definitely suffering from strong west to southwesterly winds aloft that are shearing it. There is a low level circulation at about 17N 53W, and the shearing winds have ripped away a mid-level circulation that is about 100 miles to the east of the surface circulation. Some very isolated convection on the northeast and northwest sides of the surface circulation indicate that this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression. However, it is traversing the base of a large trough with some dry air and 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, so development today is unlikely. By Wednesday, the remains of TD 10 will have a better chance, as shear values will probably drop to the 10-20 knot range as it moves to the WNW between 10 and 15 mph and escapes the trough. I'd put the odds of it redeveloping into a tropical depression again at 50/50. The shear today may very well completly disrupt the circulation, making it an open wave that won't develop again.


Figure 1. Wind shear values over the remains of TD 10 were 20 - 25 knots at 8am EDT today (12 GMT), but are lower to the WNW.

Irene
Irene is looking the best it has ever looked, and latest satellite intensity estimates put it as a strong Category One hurricane with 90 mph sustained winds. Irene doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, though, as shearing winds and cold water will convert it to a regular extratropical storm by Thursday.

The Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean
The latest big cloud of African dust is now halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Thunderstorm activity in the ITCZ area just south of this dust cloud is unimpressive today. Stong upper-level winds associated with a large upper-level low pressure system cover most of the Caribbean, and tropical development here is unlikely today.

Jeff Masters

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408. 147257
9:05 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
i agree with stormtop that it way to early to tell what TD 10 is going to do
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
407. 147257
9:04 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
5 pm no depresion back :(

and finnaly a thunderstorm tonight at least if the pictures are right :)
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
406. 147257
9:01 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
whirwind i forget which planet but it was nice to see the pictures :-) the wind speed where around 1000 miles hour

@weatherguy youre right about it dont forms in those months but i thought you ment every hurricane would leave the carribean
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
404. STORMTOP
6:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
i say its to early to tell yet what td 10 will do...
403. weatherboyfsu
6:05 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
According to Dr. Jeff... remnants of TD10 has a good chance becoming Jose, but will have a hard time making it anywhere once it obtains Tropical storm strength...and if does that.....then theres a good chance it will go out to sea......later
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
402. STORMTOP
5:54 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
the high is supposed to build westward thus fri and sat...temps are going to soar in the upper 90s...that is what you call a gloomy forecast...special weather statments will be issued for the blistering heat...
401. weatherguy03
5:50 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Ok if you say so..We will see what happens...I am sticking with my forecast..lol..
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
400. STORMTOP
5:46 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
weatherguy this trough you are talking about is not going to make it to fla..its supposed to stay over n and s car stationary..this is the latest data i have on the trough and that was 11am this morning....
399. weatherguy03
5:44 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Look at Jeffs new post..Strong trough expected to move off east coast..I am not crazy after all..lmao..
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
398. STORMTOP
5:43 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
i am seeing in the satellite and water vapor lops the dust is finally leaving the african coast...you can see the clear areas that are starting to fill in that leads me to believe the trade winds have lessened and it may be this week the action starts ..i see a few waves ready to come off the coast...are you ready for some hurricanes!!!!!!!!!!
397. weatherguy03
5:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Jedkins look at the new model forecasts that are coming out. Trough that will be coming towards the E.US looks to be stronger and stronger with each run. Seems to dig aliitle farther south then yesterday. IMHO it looks like some of the models today are trending more north then west. Just wonder your opinion on this.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
396. STORMTOP
5:38 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
yes jed i believe that too...they need proof lol..
395. STORMTOP
5:37 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
i think katrina will be a cat 5.....one of 2 this season that i predicted...i think it will affect the gulfcoast sorry to say but thats my feeling now the way things are shaping up...
394. Jedkins
5:35 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
The reson why stormtop I believe is that they won't bother if they are sending in a recon tommorow and I beleve they won't upgrade till they fly the recon into it.
393. Jedkins
5:33 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
They won't untill they fly a recon into it tomorrow besides,convetion if you have noticed,convective flare - ups are more intermittent with weaker systems.
392. Jedkins
5:31 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
If td 10 does hit the U.S. I will mostlikely be florida as you can see it kees going on farther west track hen expected and that is do to the high which also seems to be stronger than expected this is even further south than frances and has a potent high north of it and I think increasingly favorable conditions will allow it to be renamed td 10 or maybe even jose tomorrow.
391. EvanKisseloff
5:28 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
I am now watching that wave in the Central Atlantic For development.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 197
390. punkasshans
5:27 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
TD10, to me, looks to have lost all of its convection. its going to need a new burst if they are going to declare it a depression at 5pm
389. weatherguy03
5:25 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Ok mark it down..."if they dont declare it by 5PM something wrong with NHC."....author Stormtop..lol.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
388. STORMTOP
5:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
td 10 is elongated but the convection is becoming much more pronounced...this one looks like the real mccoy...we will have to deal with jose soon...if they dont declare this a td by 5 pm something is definitely wrong with the nhc..
387. DauphinIslandDunes
5:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Thanks for the great links to web resources over last several days.
386. weatherguy03
5:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Ok I now see what you are talking about weatherboy. Yeah this area is interesting in that the FSU model was trying to develop someting down here a few days ago.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
385. EvanKisseloff
5:21 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Anyone have a good visible picture to look at that wave in the Central Atlantic?
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 197
384. txweather
5:17 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Actually weatherguy from mid sept.on the W carribean is the favored area. I suspect that the relative lessening of storm development in the carribean during the peak times is more related to the fact that systems that earlier developed in the carribean develop earlier in the atlantic. So its not so much that the area is unfavorable, but that the rest of the atlantic upstream is more favorable than earlier.
383. weatherguy03
5:17 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Ok cool weatherboy. I am at work and sometimes I lose myself in the flow here..lol.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
382. weatherboyfsu
5:16 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Ok...I understand what your saying and I agree that should hender any development....but in the southern half which has westerly flow...the shear seems to be low enough and the satellite speaks for itself..granted that here recently the convection has died down....but if you get to a site that has a visible loop close up of that area, it looks interesting......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
381. whirlwind
5:15 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
not to worry txweather .. as stormtop says..next week make sure your generator is filled up...muhahahahahahaah
380. txweather
5:13 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Well I'm back from an 8 day vacation and I come back to find a decaying storm heading out to sea and a weak low/depression ne of the islands. Just like when I left, amazing. Unfortunately unlike irene that never had a chance to hit land the remains of TD10 could have a chance to hit the US.
379. weatherguy03
5:13 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
147257..I was talking about tropical formation in the carribean. Ivan did not form in the carribean. Historically come Sept. and Oct. formation in the carribean is much less then in June thru Aug.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
378. whirlwind
5:11 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
147257 -- i think the atmospheres would react differently. U talking about jupiter? or uranus....haha
377. weatherguy03
5:11 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Sorry weatherboy let me rephrase that upper level trough. Sorry not upper level low.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
376. whirlwind
5:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
would someone like to try to answer my hypothetical question located at 1:03 PM EDT on August 17, 2005.
thanks---><---
375. 147257
5:08 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
whirwind i saw it happen on a another planet saw a few nice pictures and two hurricanes came together and were getting bigger and moved further
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
374. weatherboyfsu
5:08 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Hey weatherguy...I respectfully have to disagree......there isnt a upperlevel low in the caribbean.....granted there is flow headed in two opposite directions....there is NO COMPLETE circulation there....just west flow north of the area that im talking about and east flow over the area im talking about.....in the gulf of mexico, now thats an upperlevel low
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
373. whirlwind
5:05 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
here

Link
372. 147257
5:04 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
weatherguy what are you talking about look at last year IVAN en 2 other storms came by in SEPTEMBER
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
371. whirlwind
5:03 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
since we are talking about plausable situations..

if 2 cyclcones were about to collide what would happen? would the shear they create kill each other or would they turn away?

thats a good one...?
370. STORMTOP
5:02 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
yes thats putting it mildly whirlwind...
369. weatherguy03
5:02 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
FSU forecasts here you go...Link
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
368. 147257
5:02 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
where do you guys talk?
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
367. StormJunkie
5:00 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
You don't count as a connection? You can not get it on the FSU FTP site?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16510
366. weatherguy03
5:00 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Carribean storms are due to upper level low. No development there. Actually the carribean becomes less and less favorable for developement as we transition into Sept.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
365. weatherboyfsu
5:00 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
You go to the Fsu site and pay some money....unless you have some connections......lol
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
364. EvanKisseloff
4:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Me too, what is hurricane season without Hurricanes?
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 197
363. whirlwind
4:59 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
yes I remember Fl. I live here.
I was just curious that the WAKE it leaves behind might make another storm veer off course.

Im waiting for next week, when Stormtop said "all HELL will break loose" aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!
362. StormJunkie
4:57 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
Weatherboy-Where can I find a grapical FSU superensemble forcast?

Anyone else with good model links I would appreciate it.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16510
361. weatherboyfsu
4:57 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
The shear seems to be lessening....I got some visible loops off the colorado site....it just looks like some rotation at the surface....maybe not a complete closed circulation but trying too........the convection is dying down at the moment, so we will have to see.....you got to help me here, its august the 17, 2.5 weeks from the peek of hurricane season and I have nothing to peek my interest.....IM HAVING HURRICANE WITHDRAWALS......HELP ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
360. jeff14photos
4:57 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
evan come and talk with me and king please
359. punkasshans
4:56 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
whirlwind,

They can go their own paths.. and actually to keep strong they would have to go their own paths. Hurricanes churn up the water, so cooler water would be brought to the surface. So for a bunch of strong storms to all be present at one time they would be almost required to go different paths.

HOWEVER: going difference paths is difficult. All of the storms would be governed by the same winds, and thus most likely follow the same path. However, fronts and troughs and other wind patterns can change quickly. So one storm might get picked up by a trough while the other might just miss it and go under. Basically, anything could happen.
358. STORMTOP
4:55 PM GMT on August 17, 2005
whirlwind i will use the example of florida last year were hit 4 times...they usually follow the same paths ..we were hit by 2 a few years back....this atlantic right now looks like it wants to explode any day...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.