Hurricane season is over--but not typhoon season!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on November 30, 2006

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The remarkably unremarkable Atlantic hurricane season of 2006 has now officially passed into the history books with the arrival of November 30. The nine named storms, five hurricanes, two intense hurricanes, 50 days with a named storm, and 20 days with a hurricane were all very close to the averages one expects for an Atlantic hurricane season. The only Atlantic hurricanes to affect land were Hurricane Gordon, which passed through the Azores Islands on September 19 as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, and Hurricane Florence, whose eye passed about 50 miles west of Bermuda on September 11 and brought sustained 80 mph winds to the island. Neither hurricane did significant damage. The only significant damage done by a 2006 Atlantic storm was Hurricane Ernesto, which caused about $100 million in damage to North Carolina and Florida August 31-September 1. Ernesto was also responsible for the only fatalities of the season--five people in Haiti, and two victims in Florida. We were very fortunate, indeed, compared to the vicious hurricane seasons the previous two years!



A few interesting highlights from the 2006 Hurricane Season, taken in part from Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach's forecast team at Colorado State University:

It was another early-starting season. Alberto formed on June 11. The climatological average date for the first named storm formation in the Atlantic, based on 1944-2005 data, is July 10.

The 9 named storms, 2 intense hurricanes, and 50 named storm days were the lowest observed since the El Nino year of 1997.

This is only the 11th year since 1945 that no hurricanes have made United States landfall.

No Category 4 or 5 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin this year. This is the first year with no Category 4-5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1997.

No named storms formed in October. This is the first time that no named storms have formed in October since 2002. Prior to 2006, only eleven years since 1950 witnessed no named storm formations in October.

Only two named storm days were observed in October (from Isaac which formed in late September). This is the fewest named storm days in October since 1994, when zero named storm days were observed.

Citizens Property Insurance Corp. increased their average homeowner rate by 56% in Florida this year, with another 27% increase scheduled for January 1. Imagine if another year like 2004 or 2005 had affected Florida what the insurance rates might have done!

27 percent: The Citizens rate increase approved to start Jan. 1.

Typhoon season is definitely not over!
Hurricane season may be over in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, but typhoon season continues in the Western Pacific. Tyhoons are common well into December most years, thanks to the large expanse of warm waters and the lower vertical wind shear experienced there compared to the Atlantic.

Typhoon Durian slammed ashore in the northern Philippine Islands this morning as a powerful and very dangerous Category 4 typhoon. Durian (named for a spiky tropical fruit) continues to track westward across the Philippines, pounding the the region with its 145 mph winds and rainfall amounts exceeding 12 inches per day (Figure 2). The winds and pressure at Calapan , the next major city Durian is expected hit, will be worth watching today. Durian remains in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level outflow, and should be able to maintain its Category 4 strength for another 12 hours, resulting in a very severe pounding for the Philippines. Beyond that time, interaction with land, dry air over the South China Sea, and increasing vertical wind shear will act to substantially weaken Durian. However, the damage and death toll in the Philippine is likely to be great, due to the slow movement of the storm, which will bring long-duration battering winds and extreme rainfall. Already, 9 inches of rain has fallen at Samar Island and 6 inches at Pili as of 3 GMT this morning, and rainfall amounts exceeding 12 inches in the mountainous areas are sure to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides all along the track of Durian. One major positive development is the storm's unexpected more westerly track, which is taking it well south of the capital city of Manila, with its 12 million residents. Still, damage and loss of life may rival what devastating Typhoon Xangsane did to the islands on September 27. Xangsane, a Category 4 typhoon that passed over Manilla, killed 218, did over $100 million in damage, and left tens of thousands homeless. Durian is the fourth major typhoon to hit the Philippines this year.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Durian from NOAA.


Figure 2. Latest precipitation forecast for a 24-hour period from NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch.

I'll be back Friday with the latest on Typhoon Durian, plus an analysis of why the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was so mild.

Jeff Masters



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174. CybrTeddy
1:05 AM GMT on October 08, 2007
Man what a break that year was 2006, because this year Is not a 2006, we have Had 2 CAT 5 Landfalls.
13 storms 5 hurricanes 2 major, USA this year got hit by hurricanes. Mexico has been target this year, god bless all whom were effected By Hurricane Dean and Hurricane Felix.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23956
173. TampaSteve
12:19 PM GMT on December 03, 2006
It was good to have a quiet season for a change. Hopefully, 2007 will be the same. See you all next June!
172. MisterPerfect
3:12 PM GMT on December 01, 2006
Hey Randrewl, were you in Stuart over the holiday last week?
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
171. Melagoo
3:06 PM GMT on December 01, 2006
Durian was very bad hundreds dead many missing ...

MANILA, Philippines - The fourth major typhoon to hit the Philippines in four months killed 198 people and left 260 others missing, officials said Friday.
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Typhoon Durian caused flash floods and sent walls of muddy volcanic ash and red-hot boulders crashing down on several villages, the officials said.


Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1563
170. Raysfan70
11:40 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Thank You,
aspiringstat and Rand For the article and News Report.

Thoughts and Prayers are with all.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
167. aspiringstat
9:36 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Mayon mudflows bury eight villages; death toll rising

108 bodies recovered as PNRC count hits 388

By Joel Guinto
INQ7.net
Last updated 05:19pm (Mla time) 12/01/2006


(8TH UPDATE) MUDFLOWS from the slopes of the Mayon volcano, triggered by heavy rains from typhoon "Reming" (international codename: Durian) buried at least eight villages in Albay province, killing at least 108 people even as more bodies were being recovered.

In a phone interview with reporters, Albay Governor Fernando Gonzales said they have recovered at least 108 remains from villages in Santo Domingo and Daraga towns and added: "We're still recovering some more."

The Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC) reported that 388 had died although PNRC chairman, Senator Richard Gordon, said he wanted the 200 reported killed in Barangay (village) Busay in Daraga town reconfirmed because the number was “too big.”

Earlier Gordon confirmed 146 dead and 75 missing or trapped on rooftops after the massive mudflow.

"This will probably rise a little bit more" as rescue teams enter areas which are now blocked by flooding and debris, he said.

PNRC director of fund generation Gwen Pang said the count of 200 came from the public safety office of Legazpi City while the 188 others came from PNRC volunteers from different areas.

Interviewed by reporters after a National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) meeting in Camp Aguinaldo, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said he has received unconfirmed reports that 200 died in the mudslides.

During the NDCC meeting, Duque said the Albay provincial government had requested for 200 cadaver bags.

"We do not have exact figures but we are looking at about 200 dead... principally in the vicinity of Mayon volcano," said Glenn Rabonza, NDCC executive officer also said.

Gonzales confirmed earlier figures given by provincial relief officer Cedric Daep who told Agence France-Presse that the bodies of those killed had been retrieved in the towns and villages of Daraga and Santo Domingo.

Gonzalez named some of the villages hit by the landslide as Cagsawa, Busay, Cullat and Malibago in Daraga, and Padang in Legazpi.

In a phone interview, Office of Civil Defense (OCD) deputy administrator Anthony Golez said the mudflows were as much as two stories deep in the hardest hit areas.

"All you can see are the rooftops," Gonzales said.

Daep warned that the toll could shoot up even further amid unconfirmed reports of large numbers of dead in Padang.

Jukes Nunez of the Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council said about 30 people were injured by boulders and roofing materials in Padang and taken to hospitals.

Elsewhere in the Philippines at least one person was killed in the town of Canaman after being hit by a piece of metal roofing blown off by the typhoon, the civil defense office said.

In the town of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro province, local officials reported at least three people, two of them children, were killed after a tree and an electric post fell on them at the height of the storm. Several people were also injured, they added.

They also said that homes had been damaged and trees uprooted by the strong winds.

They added that they were checking on a dam in the town of Bucayao amid reports of a leak.

In the Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon) region, more 1,800 families were evacuated from landslide- and flood-prone areas as typhoon “Reming” battered the Southern Tagalog area, the OCD said.

Armando Duque, OCD-Calabarzon chair, said in a report that a total of 8,766 persons have been brought to 74 evacuation centers in the region’s five provinces.

Duque said 128 villages in over 30 towns in the region were affected by the typhoon and, although there was no major flooding, he described damage as substantial with Laguna, Quezon and Batangas suffering the most.

Batangas alone, he said, had sent in an initial damage report of P3.66 million in agriculture and fisheries.

"We are getting reports that there are more and more casualties," Governor Gonzales said, adding that he expected the death toll to rise as more local officials reported in on the damage their communities had sustained.

Roel Ilarena, a resident of Padang, said as many as 500 people may have been killed when the mudflow struck overnight. Officials could not confirm his story.

"There are still a lot of missing, still a lot of bodies being dug out," the town's mayor Jerry Jucian said.

The Red Cross said a local resident reported as many as 200 had been killed, but it was unable to confirm the figure.

"It's terrible," Legazpi Mayor Noel Rosal told The Associated Press by phone after visiting the village Friday. "Based on our interviews with residents and village officials, more than 100 were killed or missing. Based on the bodies I saw, there could be no less than 20. I could not bear to look at some of them."

He later told ANC television that 23 had been killed and 139 were missing in Padang.

"The village was devastated, wiped out by the mud flow," Rosal said, adding the mudflows hit at around 3 p.m. Thursday and ended three hours later.

Rosal said some victims had their clothes ripped off as they were swept away by the mudslide.

"We now call this place a black desert," he said, referring to the color of the volcanic debris.

Around 30,000 residents of villages on the slopes of Mayon had been forced to evacuate in August when the volcano showed signs of erupting. They returned home in September after it simmered down.

"These are very big and very heavy mudflows. It buried many houses," Governor Gonzales said in a phone interview earlier in the day when asked about the situation in his province following the mudslides.

The mudflows were formed after rains washed down sediments and boulders deposited from previous eruptions on the Mayon slopes, said Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs).

"These are very old deposits, not from the 2006 eruption, which were mobilized by the rains," Solidum told reporters at the sidelines of a National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) meeting in Camp Aguinaldo.

The most recent Mayon eruption involved only lava flows, which have hardened and could not be washed down by the rains, he said.

Solidum said scientists have yet to determine if the mudflow could be considered lahar.

Lahar is composed of at least 20 percent sediment by volume, anything less is considered mudflows, he said.

Rescue efforts were being hampered by storm damage which has knocked out electricity, telephone lines and even water services throughout much of the Bicol peninsula which includes Legazpi and Daraga, according to the AFP report.

Jucian said volcanic ash from the slopes of nearby Mayon volcano had mixed with rain from “Reming” to cause deadly landslides.

Governor Gonzales and Mayor Jucian said roads to the affected areas have been blocked by rocks washed down by the mudflow, floods, and landslides.

"It’s a really bad situation here," the governor said.

In a separate interview, Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Administrator Glen Rabonza said "Reming’s" rains washed down debris from the volcano's slopes, which "then flowed to the rivers, causing them to overflow and reach the villages."

Regional police head Chief Superintendent Victor Buco said that search and rescue operations were going on but added that many people had already been evacuated.

The civil defense office said more than 13,900 people had been evacuated in the Bicol region.

The military was waiting for the weather to clear to bring helicopters into the affected area.

Legazpi City's airport was shut down as debris littered the runway and the windows and part of the roof of terminal had been destroyed by the storm.

With reports from Dennis Maliwanag, INQ7.net; Marlon Ramos, Inquirer Southern Luzon, GMA7, AFP, AP

source: www.inq7.net
166. Wishcasterboy
5:00 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
I heard that if the air gets cold enough while it's snowing, that the snow will stop falling and just meander very slowly to the ground. That would be quite a sight!
165. Wishcasterboy
4:51 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
When my father was in the army, he was sent too train in Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri. He was stationed there from January through February and said it was the coldest place he'd ever been to in his life.
164. Wishcasterboy
4:43 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
It's amazing though, where I live weather events like those only happen every hundred years or so. It is peaceful, but boring!
163. Wishcasterboy
4:28 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Only in the Midwest.
161. Wishcasterboy
4:22 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Where do you live AO?
158. pottery
4:06 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
anyway its midnight here and I need to sleep. check you all tomorow. Hope all is under control in Philipines.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
157. RL3AO
4:04 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
I've never been in a major ice storm. Most of the storms I get are all snow.
156. pottery
4:03 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
nah cyclone dont try that ! The dust needs to be up there in the sky, soaking up all that lovely damp stuff.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
155. aspiringstat
3:59 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Latest Satellite Image from PAGASA

Yehey! Durian is moving out of the country!
154. SteveDa1
3:58 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Im out for the night, gotta go get some sleep and pottery when you experience -40 windchills you wont dress like an eskimo in temps in the 20s!
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
152. aspiringstat
3:55 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Reming' moving out of RP (as of 11:52 Manila time) - ABS-CBN news

Typhoon Reming (international codename Durian) left Mindoro before noon Friday and was moving west on its way to the South China Sea, weather bureau PAGASA said.

As of 11 a.m., Reming was spotted 50 kilometers southwest of Lubang Island with maximum sustained winds of 150 km per hour and gustiness of up to 185 kph. It was moving west at a slow pace of 15 kph.

PAGASA forecasts said Reming will be over South China Sea by Saturday morning and out of the country's area of responsibility by Sunday.

Public storm signal number 3 was still up over Occidental Mindoro and Lubang Island.

Signal number 2 was hoisted over Calamian Group of Island, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas and Cavite while signal number 1 was declared over Laguna, Bataan, southern Zambales and Metro Manila.

Reming entered the country Thursday as a super typhoon through Catanduanes with maximum sustained winds of 190 kph and gustiness of up to 225 kph.

It was the strongest typhoon to hit the country this year.

Earlier reports said about 40 people were confirmed killed while 100 more were missing after mudflows hit eight villages in several towns in Albay province due to heavy rains and strong winds brought on by the typhoon.

Albay Gov. Fernando Gonzalez told ABS-CBN News Channel he received confirmation that 40 people were killed in Barangays Padang and Santo Domingo in Legazpi City and Barangays Busay and Cullat in Daraga town. Earlier reports said at least 100 residents of Barangay Padang went missing after the mudflow.

"We've also received reports that other barangays were affected by mudflows but we don't have confirmation yet," he told ANC.

Gonzalez said the mudflow came from the eastern and southeastern slopes of Mount Mayon Thursday afternoon after the onslaught of heavy rains.

He said the provincial disaster coordinating council has deployed eight teams to conduct rescue and retrieval operations in the affected villages.

"Only the roofs can be seen in these barangays. Maharlika [Highway] is closed now because of debris from the mudflow and boulders," he added.

Gonzalez urged the Department of Public Works and Highways to immediately work to clear Maharlikay Highway of the debris.

He said several teams have been sent to barangays that were affected by the mudflows for search and rescue operations.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council had confirmed one fatality in Canaman, Camarines Sur identified as Salve Almasar, 33. Almasar reportedly died after being hit by a galvanized iron sheet.

Fourteen people were injured in Camarines Sur and brought for treatment at Bicol Medical Center in Naga City.

The Office of Civil Defense unit in Sto. Domingo, Albay said at least eight people were killed in floods.

Disaster officials said a total of 2,840 or 13,928 people were evacuated from 16 municipalities and three cities in Bicol and Southern Tagalog. A total of 3,920 passengers, 189 trucks, 20 small vehicles, 47 passenger buses and 13 vessels were stranded in various ports in Bicol, Southern Tagalog and Eastern Visayas.
151. SteveDa1
3:54 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Ok I understand now. Sorry but I sometimes don't get what people are saying cause im not perfectly english.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
150. aspiringstat
3:53 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
hello sandcrab. sorry for replying late... we're having communication problems lately. i'm from the southern part of manila near cavite province.
149. pottery
3:50 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Steve, I just meant that for a tropical person like me, not being able to go outside without having to dress up like an eskimo got me frantic....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
148. pottery
3:42 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
OK Cyclone, But I'm still not convinced. But you know, the dust thing works, and all year long we heard " tropical development is being zapped by Sahara dust " or words to that effect anyway. I'm not disparaging your idea, its just that bulldozing Africa would be so much more in keeping with our current methods. Hell, we've done half the job already.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
147. SteveDa1
3:38 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Well Im sure that sentence is funny but I dont understand it. LOL...

This is enough for me as well but I didnt decide for it to happen (the 98 ice storm). Was very unpleasant...
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
146. pottery
3:34 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
Steve, one of those ice storms is enough for me. My tropical metabolism went into agitation mode !!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
144. SteveDa1
3:29 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
I remenber the Ice storm of 98 very well... 3-4 inches of ice accumulated where I lived. I had no power for 3 weeks in -20C temperatures but we did temporarily "move" to my uncles. Everything was covered in ice, EVERYTHING! It was just so unreal... 4 inches of ice on my parking lot, it was very slippery.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
143. pottery
3:28 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
without affecting the temp??????
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
141. pottery
3:23 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
but you are trying to get a cold fluid to migrate vertically to a warmer zone. I doubt that.........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
139. pottery
3:20 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
STL, I was stuck in an ice storm in Peoria Ill. some years ago. Stuck in an ice storm is bad, stuck in Peoria is terrible. But it sure was pretty when the sun came up............
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
136. pottery
3:15 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
cyclone, what causes the cold water to flow up , that part beats me so far.........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
135. pottery
3:12 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
yeah STL I was checking that earlier. Sounds pretty grim. Keep strong...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
131. pottery
3:05 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
hi STL ,nasty weather for you ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
130. sandcrab39565
3:05 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
aspiringstat, thanks again for the info can we do anything for you or your area?
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
129. pottery
3:04 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
c'mon cyclone, its late here man..........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
127. pottery
3:01 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
and come to think of it, the BEST way to eliminate storms in the Atlatic, would be to bulldoze ALL the African forrests, to create more dust. How come I didnt think of this before.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
126. pottery
2:57 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
and Cyclone, I'll bet you a dollar Dr. M has something to say about Sahara dust tomorow.............
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269
125. aspiringstat
2:55 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
According to the report of ABS-CBN news, more than 200 have killed in the mudslide in albay but NDCC needs this to be confirmed. so far, the confirmed deaths that i heard from them were already 19. winds here in metro manila is ranging from 0 to 70 kph.
124. pottery
2:53 AM GMT on December 01, 2006
OK Cyclone, make it brief...........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24269

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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