Super typhoon Durian aims for the Philippines; rare tornado hits Wales

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on November 29, 2006

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Super Typhoon Durian put on a very impressive burst of rapid intensification today, and is now a large and very dangerous Category 4 storm headed towards the Philippines. Durian (named for a tropical fruit) is on track to make landfall on the main island of Luzon later today and pass over the island Thursday. Winds at Catanduanes and Daet, the first major cities that will be hit, had increased to 20 mph at 1am local time Thursday, and will steadily pick up. Durian is in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level outflow. In the past 24 hours, the storm has intensified from a Category 1 typhoon with winds of 85 mph to a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds and a central pressure of 916 mb. Durian has a good chance of intensifying into a Category 5 super typhoon later today, before interaction with land and passage over Luzon start to weaken the storm. Unfortunately, Durian is expected to slow down as it passes over the Philippines, and may pass near the heavily populated capital city of Manila, a city of 12 million. The slow motion will make Durian a prodigious rainmaker, and NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch is predicting rain amounts of up to eight inches in 24 hours (Figure 2). Heavy rains that trigger flash floods and mudslides are the primary hazards of typhoons in the Philippines, and we can expect damage and loss of life similar to what devastating Typhoon Xangsane did to the islands on September 27. Xangsane, a Category 4 typhoon that passed over Manilla, killed 218, did over $100 million in damage, and left tens of thousands homeless. The Philippines have raised its highest alert level, and are moving coastal residents out where a storm surge of up to 15 feet is expected. Schools have been cancelled today and all sea travel suspended.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Durian from NOAA.

The Philippines have been hit particularly hard this typhoon season, and Durian will be the 4th major typhoon to wallop the island in the past three months. Typhoon Chebi hit Luzon as a Category 3 typhoon on November 11, but hit the less populated northern portion of the island and moved quickly enough that heavy rains and flooding caused relatively little damage. Super Typhoon Cimaron made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 27, destroyed 2600 homes, and damaged another 18,000.


Figure 2. Latest precipitation forecast for a 24-hour period from NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch.

Tornado hits Wales
A rare tornado hit Wales in the British Islands yesterday, according to news reports from the BBC. The small tornado, which hit at 1:30 am local time, damaged 20 homes. Tornadoes are rare in the British Islands due to the lack of cold, dry continental air needed to generate severe thunderstorms. Here's the weather discussion put out by the UK Met office before the tornado:


CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION issued at 1045 GMT on Tuesday 28th November 2006 Valid from/until: 1045 - 2359 GMT on Tuesday 28th November for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Coastal areas of Wales SW England Southern coastal counties of England Channel Islands

SYNOPSIS: Large upper trough/cold pool is approaching from the west. Cold advection aloft/synoptic lift will cause instability to increase with CAPE values of 2-300 J/Kg expected, with LIs down to -2C or so. Flow is rather unidirectional, and low-level/deep layer shear are not large. However, just ahead of the trough, some increase is 850 hPa winds are forecast by some mesoscale models, especially across northern parts of Wales early-mid afternoon.

THREATS: Heavy showers/a few thunderstorms are expected to affect the areas this afternoon and evening, with the risk shifting east over time. The main effects of these will be hail 15-20mm diameter, gusty winds, briefly torrential rain and a few cloud-ground lightning strikes. However, there is a small risk of tornadic development, especially across northern parts of Wales early-mid afternoon, as 850 hPa wind max moves through. Elsewhere, the risk is lower, but still there. Overall though, the risk is deemed too low for a WATCH to be issued.


Jeff Masters

TORRNOADO ALERT IN BRITAIN (richie123098)
over the past week Britain had been hit with servre Storms and flooding and very high windsi got some pictures of a tornado in a west Wales village which struck last niteTornado warnings are in affect in South Wales, West Wales and south west England today
TORRNOADO ALERT IN BRITAIN

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643. HIEXPRESS
3:51 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Build it and they will come.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
640. Patrap
2:32 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Now im feeling a LIl Queezy.Tunnel flu coming on.LOL..See yall later.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
638. Patrap
2:31 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
I know rand..once you get situated and comfy with things..come on down..or over...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
637. Patrap
2:30 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
We could go sneak up On DocNDswamp and maybe get a Nutria Gumbo or a Beer..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
635. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Naw rand..this is Nawlins..never too early for anything.When you coming fo visit?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
634. Skyepony (Mod)
2:25 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
LOL, yeah those horns, early, uh later.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
633. Skyepony (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Maybe there was a camera shift up as well at the yacht club, I'm not sure if the pizza sign is any lower but there was sidewalk infront of those boats...10:20pm over there. It's gonna be a long night.

No coastal showers here this morning for a change. Gonna go haul hay while the sun shines.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
631. Patrap
2:23 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Look at those Bra Bearings!..LOL XXX cups!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
630. aquak9
2:20 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
OH DEAR LORD! look at those horns!

(running into bedroom wall AGAIN, knocking self unconcious AGAIN)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25791
629. Patrap
2:20 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Been saving dat one for the right moment Skye..guess this IS it!..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
628. Patrap
2:19 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Its OVER!...LA!..La!.LA!5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
627. Skyepony (Mod)
2:17 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Yeah the speed is a good thing too, noticed on the WU flash tracker tool that forward speed was forecasted a good bit quicker then it was yesterday.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
626. Skyepony (Mod)
2:15 PM GMT on November 30, 2006

credit NOAA
NOAA thoughts of the season on the last day.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
625. Patrap
2:13 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Yup..its filling in...thats a GOOD trend for sure Skye.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
624. Skyepony (Mod)
2:11 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Yes it is Patrap, enjoyed watching it fall apart on MIMIC this morning too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
623. Skyepony (Mod)
2:09 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
The navy has 115kts & 927mb.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
622. Patrap
2:03 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
If the speed and track holds Skye...the storm looks to be taking the best route under Manila...to clear without doing the nasty on them..Good news Skye.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
621. Skyepony (Mod)
2:03 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Oh & no idea what the 2 yellow moon looking things are in the yacht cam, they weren't there lastnight.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
620. Skyepony (Mod)
2:01 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Morning all~ Looks like Remings' trip over Camarine weakened it Here's the quick animation on MIMIC. Lights are on in Manila. Things look wet at the yacht club. Not sure if the camera has shifted a little left or if the pizza sign is just being blown that hard. It's also not loading everytime. I think we're gonna lose this cam.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37498
618. TyphoonHunter
1:46 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Amazing pictures on www.rambocam.com Received another message from Geoff and he's safe after a seriously insane afternoon!
617. Patrap
1:45 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Rand ..Im WU mailing you now...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
616. AllyBama
1:41 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
For those in the Philippines who are still on, our prayers are for you and your fellow countrymen today..take care and stay in touch if possible.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
614. Patrap
1:29 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Yer welcome Pottery.Hows the weather in your area?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
613. pottery
1:28 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
OK< thanks Pat...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24142
612. Patrap
1:26 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Pacific always cranks out Typhoons of this Magnitude.Its a Bigger Basin by 2x than the Atlantic..with much Bigger Breeding Grounds.Seems to be a Bad season to Atlantic observers sometimes.But its the norm there.Thats why the Pacific broken up into 3 areas.West Pac,Central..and East pac.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
611. RL3AO
1:24 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Was this a Cat 5 at landfall?
610. Patrap
1:24 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Last nights jog SW seems to have changed the track significantly south.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
609. pottery
1:23 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Question...... is it normal for Pacific storms to be generally as strong as this year, at such low lats. ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24142
608. sandcrab39565
1:19 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
BRB (phone)
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
605. sandcrab39565
1:16 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Good morning Pottery
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
604. pottery
1:14 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Morning all, things not looking good re. Durian, for the population there. Rain will most likely be the major problem? they are well rehearsed for wind I think.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24142
603. Patrap
1:14 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Gm rand..the Typhoon doing the deed now looks like.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
602. sandcrab39565
1:14 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
How ya doing this am Rand.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
601. sandcrab39565
1:13 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Yeppers Pat gonna be a busy afternoon
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
600. Patrap
1:11 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Beginnings of the trouble for later sandcrab...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
597. sandcrab39565
1:09 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Good morning everyone hope all is well.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
596. Patrap
1:08 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Morning aquak9 flyer..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
595. Patrap
1:07 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Trying to see the situ .But reports scattered at Best.Will be tommorrow AM I believe before we get a Good clear pic of the Whole Impact.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
594. aquak9
1:06 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
Images finally came up; not very clear, & slow to load. Has there been any fresh media coverage from the are? How are things faring?

(G'morning Patrap, AStat, Raindrool)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25791
593. Patrap
1:02 PM GMT on November 30, 2006
The last two Images aspiring has the server in the MUD...remove if ya can buddy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.