Central American disturbance decays; Philippines brace for another typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on November 26, 2006

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A tropical disturbance (95L) near 11N, 78W, just north of Panama, has continued to grow less organized. Wind shear has increased from 10 to 20 knots over the disturbance in the past 24 hours, which probably accounts for the storm's deterioration. There is now very little heavy thunderstorm activity, and this morning's QuikSCAT satellite pass showed no surface circulation, and winds of barely 20 mph. The system is expected to drift slowly westward towards Nicaragua, and could bring heavy rains there later this week. None of the computer models are developing the system, and NHC has stopped running its preliminary set of models on it.

In the Western Pacific, the Philippine Islands are anxiously watching Tropical Storm Durian, which is on track to hit the main island of Luzon later this week. Intensity forecasts have Durian developing into a Category 4 storm by landfall, which would make it the fourth major typhoon to hit Luzon in the past two monts.

I'll be back Monday morning with an update.
Jeff Masters

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64. Patrap
1:04 PM GMT on November 27, 2006
Bump up for the Docs blog...Last Monday of the 06 Cane season..good riddance!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
63. TyphoonHunter
10:37 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Hey guys. Tropical storm Durian is currently sittitng just to the north of Yap with winds of 40kts. As it stands I'm preparing to fly to Manila tomorrow to meet storm chaser Geoff Mackley and check out what Durian has in store for the Phillipines. JMA forecasting winds up to 65kts but will Durian do a Xangsane, Cimaron or Chebi?
Will post more updates here as they come!

62. TayTay
9:15 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Durian is a very large looking storm.
61. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:05 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
you're welcome Skypony

PAGASA actually wrote a summary today without naming the storm.

At 2 p.m. PST today, Tropical Storm (International Name "DURIAN") was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 1,440 kms East of Visayas (10.2N, 139.4E) with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph (40 knots) near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph. (50 knots) It is forecast to move west at 19 kph.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47088
60. Sprocketeer
6:47 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Anticlimatic closure to an anticlimatic season, I suppose. Not to mention the ITCZ basically looks dead now.

Night everyone.
59. SteveDa1
3:49 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Yes, RIP to what could have been the last storm of the season.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1298
58. Skyepony (Mod)
3:44 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Invest 95L is no longer on the Navy site...RIP.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
57. Skyepony (Mod)
3:41 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Hades, Considering the public forecast as well as about any other forecaster in the area is calling for broken trees in 4 days, it's odd that PAGASA is saying no threat. Guess they don't bother with the 5 day cone unless it starts west of 135E. Thanks for the name...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
56. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:30 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
the wave height reported by JTWC as of 12am UTC is 22 feet
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47088
55. Skyepony (Mod)
3:30 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
From the discussion~
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LIES ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 16N. THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$
GR
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
53. Skyepony (Mod)
3:19 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Waves look to be ~20' with Durian.

Seems the EPA would more than gladly efforce what it could to reduce GHG, given their stance on the matter.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39463
51. Patrap
3:03 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Xmas
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
50. Patrap
3:03 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
nutmeg
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
49. N3EG
2:53 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
The Supreme Court can elect presidents, so it can stop global warming, right? After all, global warming is responsible for screwing up everything in the world that Bush hasn't already screwed up, right? Sheesh...
Member Since: April 23, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 237
47. NWAtlanticCyclone
2:23 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
What kind of Nor'easter in 7 to 9 days. Snow/rain/wind and where is it coming from. Also how will it affect Cape Cod and eastern New England.
46. Caffinehog
2:22 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
I suspect that article is not exactly written by nonpartisan observers.

The supreme court is not a legislative body, all it can do is interpert or strike down laws. The most they could do is tell the EPA that they have to regulate CO2 emissions. How or how much is not up to the court.
Member Since: June 5, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
44. Caffinehog
2:02 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Folks, with the supreme court thing: All the court can do is say that the EPA can regulate carbon dioxide. The EPA doesn't actually have to do it!
Member Since: June 5, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
43. Caffinehog
1:51 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Durian

Durian
Member Since: June 5, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
41. Wishcasterboy
1:39 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREAS AND THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY.

COLD AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL TO 500 FEET OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR FROM CASTLE ROCK AND KELSO DOWN THROUGH PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER TO NEAR SALEM. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FEET LATER TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE LATER 500 FEET ON MONDAY...AND ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH BELOW 500 FEET ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BE GREATEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 500 FEET.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

I've got my fingers crossed for snow.
40. Patrap
1:35 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
10day GFSx...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
37. Patrap
1:27 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Merry Xmas
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
35. Patrap
1:23 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
e
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
34. Weather130
1:16 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Well it is safe to say the Atlantic season is over. A few days are left but nothing is expected. What is the expectations for the season in the South Pacific? What are the likehood of a major cyclone heading for Australia any time soon?
Member Since: November 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
33. SteveDa1
1:02 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
ric - Why do you even try? NO ONE will make him change his mind... I just click this:
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1298
32. HIEXPRESS
1:01 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Posted By: ricderr at 7:55 PM EST on November 26, 2006.
what a dumbass...even when you're wrong you're right...god help you

No, really, it was a lot of cold air headed South.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
27. HIEXPRESS
12:50 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
All of that cold air that zipped by us last week here in Florida: Where do you think it went? Was it pulled, did it give 95L a push, or a little of both?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
26. ricderr
12:48 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
40 years?.......wwht...did you forget that in the 70's....it ws feared we were in global cooling...you know..you'veee a right to think global warming is human related....it's unproven both ways...but get your facts straight or shut up
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
24. HIEXPRESS
12:46 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
By the people, for the people, it does seem to be what people are talking about. I guess they have to. How will we ever really know the average temperature of the entire mass of the earth? Will the Supreme court determine it?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
20. HIEXPRESS
12:33 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Intervention!
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
18. HIEXPRESS
12:26 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
CB, Relapse - & you were doing so well...
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
17. HIEXPRESS
12:24 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Hey Pottery - I thought I killed it (the blog -not the Season)
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
15. pottery
12:08 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
any one there?????????
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24927

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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