Central American disturbance less organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:29 PM GMT on November 25, 2006

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A tropical disturbance (95L) near 11N, 79W, just north of Panama, has remained nearly stationary and become less organized over the past 24 hours. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and the winds from the latest QuikSCAT satellite pass at 6:11pm EST last night revealed top winds of only 20-30 mph. An ill-defined and elongated surface circulation was apparent in the QuikSCAT data, and some evidence of rotation can be seen on the latest visible satellite loop of the region.


Figure 1. preliminary model tracks for the Panama disturbance, 95L.

Water temperatures are a warm 28C, and wind shear remains around 10 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development over the next two days. It is possible a tropical depression could form on Monday, as wind shear is expected to remain low over the extreme southern Caribbean. None of the models are forecasting that 95L will develop into a depression--with the exception of the 00Z run of the GFDL model, which has a very unrealistic-looking forecast of a Cat 2 hurricane on Monday hitting Nicaragua. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Monday afternoon, but given the current poor organization of the system, I doubt a flight will be needed. Steering currents are weak, but a slow westward motion is indicated by most of the models. The system appears to be a threat primarily to Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama. Any northward movement of the storm would bring it into a area of high wind shear that would quickly tear it apart.

I'll be back Sunday morning with an update.
Jeff Masters

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497. BahaHurican
2:47 PM GMT on November 26, 2006
Hmmm . . .. the storms to the east of the circulation I am seeing seem unconnected . . . maybe it's really done this time . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21556
496. BahaHurican
2:32 PM GMT on November 26, 2006
Looks like storms are firing in the area again this morning. Have they taken the invest down?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21556
495. BahaHurican
2:25 PM GMT on November 26, 2006
Anybody in here???
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21556
494. IKE
1:44 PM GMT on November 26, 2006
95L is about dead.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
493. IKE
1:41 PM GMT on November 26, 2006
Now that the tropics are over with..speaking of not getting along...how about people that get into a fight the morning after Thanksgiving when their rushing into a store to buy Xmas gifts. OMG! At 5 in the morning! Getting into a fight for a gift.

People mugging someone for a PS3.

And good morning Nash.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
492. nash28
1:13 PM GMT on November 26, 2006
Morning everyone
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
491. melly
11:55 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
I never knew Weather was such a vicious
hobby. Maybe I should take up women's archery
490. IKE
10:45 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
Folks arguing with each other in cyberspace at 3-4 o'clock in the morning. Geez.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
488. Wishcasterboy
9:11 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
Bye Snow, bye everyone!
486. snowboy
9:10 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
hey dudes, too hot for me - maybe the Arctic front later in the week will cool you down a bit. g'night.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
485. Wishcasterboy
9:09 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
If we can't even have a simple conversation without getting into a argument, then what's the point of even trying. I could have been your friend but you ruined it for me and yourself. Have fun with the rest of your life.
483. snowboy
9:07 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
that's how I'm reading the overall set up that is developing, WCB - models are all flailing and not doing well with the sudden cold, so I'm just looking at how I think things will develop (which is systems moving up along the front marking the outer edge of the cold air as it moves southeast)..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
482. Wishcasterboy
9:06 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
I'm going to ignore you Rand, because your driving me crazy.
479. snowboy
9:04 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
hey, can you tone it down a tad Rand? it's cool to have snow in the forecast..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
478. Wishcasterboy
9:03 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
What makes you say that snow?
476. Wishcasterboy
9:02 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
I know you don't, that's why you get this....
474. snowboy
9:02 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
you could get much more snow later in the week, WCB..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
472. Wishcasterboy
9:01 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
We could get an inch or two of snow in Vancouver WA on Monday night.
470. Wishcasterboy
8:56 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
You may be educated in the matter of tropical weather Randy, but there's something morbid about you.
469. snowboy
8:55 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
.. and I salute that Rand - you are focussed!

I am focussed on winter weather, now that the tropics are dead, and we are going to get our first REAL taste of winter across much of the continent next week.

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
466. Wishcasterboy
8:51 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
I swear Rand knows how to get into my head.
465. Wishcasterboy
8:50 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
Hi Snow, I need to calm down.
464. snowboy
8:48 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
boy lots of attitude and not much weather on here tonight, eh?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
461. Wishcasterboy
8:42 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
HOW LONG RAND!?
459. Wishcasterboy
8:39 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
How long did you say you've been studying tropical weather?
455. Wishcasterboy
8:36 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
I came here to learn and all I have learned is hate! What kind of person teaches hate Rand?
453. Wishcasterboy
8:33 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
Get ever yourself and look toward me with open eyes.
452. Wishcasterboy
8:32 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
Aren't you supposed to be setting a example as the adult?
451. Wishcasterboy
8:30 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
You or the boys Rand!
449. Wishcasterboy
8:17 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
GFDL is engaged in comprehensive long lead-time research to expand the scientific understanding of the physical processes that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and the oceans as complex fluid systems. These systems can then be modeled mathematically and their phenomenology can be studied by computer simulation methods.

GFDL's accomplishments include the development of the first climate models to study global warming, the first comprehensive ocean prediction codes, and the first dynamical models with significant skill in hurricane track and intensity predictions. Much current research within the laboratory is focussed around the development of Earth System Models for assessment of natural and human-induced climate change.

That doesn't sound useless to me.
448. Wishcasterboy
8:16 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
You are out of touch boy. Forget you.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.