New tropical disturbance 95L a threat to Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:56 PM GMT on November 24, 2006

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A tropical disturbance (95L) has formed near 11N, 79W, just north of Panama, in the extreme southern Caribbean. This disturbance has a large but disorganized area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. The latest QuikSCAT satellite imagery from 5:45am EST today caught just the east side of the disturbance, and revealed top winds of 35-40 mph. An ill-defined and elongated surface circulation was apparent in the QuikSCAT data, and some evidence of rotation can be seen on the latest visible satellite loop of the region.


Figure 1. preliminary model tracks for the Panama disturbance, 95L.

Wind shear is around 10 knots over the disturbance, which is low enough to allow some slow development over the next two days. It is possible a tropical depression could form by Sunday, as wind shear is expected to remain low over the extreme southern Caribbean. Steering currents are weak, but a slow westward motion beginning on Saturday is indicated by most of the models. The system appears to be a threat primarily to Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama. Any northward movement of the storm would bring it into a area of high wind shear that would quickly tear it apart.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 2:15pm EST Nov 24, 2006.

I'll be back Saturday morning with an update.
Jeff Masters

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52. ryang
9:13 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Everyone there is a serious entry on my blog.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
51. Drakoen
9:09 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
its still extremely disorganized and confined to a small area in which it can develop. Upper level winds could increase and tear it apart.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
49. Drakoen
8:59 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I dont think 95L is anything to worry about, as like the last invests it will probably die out or run into to land. The most the might come out of it is a tropical depression but thats it. The season is done..
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
48. sandiquiz
8:54 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I am sure we have had more storms in the UK in the last 3 weeks than we usually get in the whole of the winter. All the bad weather in the Atlantic is being blown our way!
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47. kmanislander
8:52 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Sprocketeer
same thing happened last yr with about 3 systems showing up " after " the season was declared over.
Guess they forgot to tell mother nature LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
46. Cregnebaa
8:52 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
In LC 2 weeks ago, was marvellous, love it there.

That's some nice 40kt shear over us, that's what I like to see
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45. kmanislander
8:50 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
well I am outof here for now but will check back later.
For anyone not on when I come back have a great weekend and in the UK stay safe from the approaching system
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
44. ryang
8:50 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I agree KMAN.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
43. Sprocketeer
8:49 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
It ain't over 'til it's over, even in an El Nino year with no activity for 8 weeks!

If 95L does develop, it'll be a real slap in the face to the CSU and everyone else who already issued their final season summary.
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42. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:46 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
heh the NRL are lacking today, they didn't have the west pacific invest on until hours after it was already on the FNMOC.. and I was wondering why they re-issued 92W invest when there was a 92W way back on November 10th.
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41. kmanislander
8:46 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
ryang

old man bay is a great part of the island of Grand Cayman. Quiet with the feel of "old" Cayman.
The sister islands are also exceptional for a relaxing vacation.
Little Cayman is like a trip back in time. Really wonderful
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
40. ricderr
8:45 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
h23......missed you..haven't had my daily entertainment in awhile....do me a favor..go back to your dry air link...tell me just how much dry air is to the north of that system..did you might mean...northwest?
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39. kmanislander
8:45 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Creg

Here is a good shear map link
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
38. ryang
8:44 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
37. ryang
8:42 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Kman about two years ago.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
36. hurricane23
3:42 PM EST on November 24, 2006
kmanislander 95L has been up for a while now on FNMOC....CLICK HERE
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35. ryang
8:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I liked the area of old man bay in Grand Cayman.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
34. Cregnebaa
8:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Sandi missed your post,

M1 can be a mare especially with all the lorries, their all over the place in the strong winds
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33. kmanislander
8:39 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
ryang

how long ago ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
32. kmanislander
8:37 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
surf's up !!

Wake boarders etc will be out in force, not to mention the kite flyers
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31. ryang
8:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I went to the caymans already.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
30. Cregnebaa
8:37 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Sheer forecast

If it satys in the Caribbean could have a chance
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29. kmanislander
8:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Hurricane

I do not see 95L up on the Navy site as yet. Where did you get your 95L loops ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
28. ryang
8:35 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Thanks 23
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
27. Cregnebaa
8:34 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Looks like 5 more days of rough seas as well.

Could make the Butterfield triathlon fun for sunday
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26. kmanislander
8:34 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I know what you mean. The sun this afternoon feels great.
I do however see some moisture retrograding from the E and coming up from the S. May be more rain on the way just in time for the weekend !! LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
25. hurricane23
3:33 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Ryang 95L has a very small area were there are favorable upper levels winds that may allow development into a tropical depression.To the north there is a great amount of DRY AIR which will destroy anything that trys to push to the north.Also shear is quite high to the north of 95L.
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24. Cregnebaa
8:31 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Been here a while, just pre Ivan, but haven't posted much in Dr M's blog for a while.

Forecast is saying we might get the frontal system over Jamaica regressing over us. Although the cool weather is nice, I need some sun!
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23. kmanislander
8:32 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Here is the buoy I was referring to.
Offshore conditions still very hostile
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
22. kmanislander
8:29 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Cregnebaa

Are you new on here ?. If so welcome to the blog.
Looks like the cool N winds of the last few days are dying quickly. Heat on the rebound !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
21. sandiquiz
8:28 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Hi Creg, We were going North tomorrow, but may just give it a miss - the MI is not a pleasant place in strong winds - too high and exposed!
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20. Cregnebaa
8:28 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Hey Kman also in Cayman
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19. kmanislander
8:26 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
ryang

true but conditions in the NW Caribbean right now would do a number on it before it got to us.
Hopefully it will only be a conversation piece for everyone.
The buoy to our S has 23 knot winds out of the N. 95L would not like that at all !!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
18. Cregnebaa
8:26 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Hi Sandi was warning my Mum in the Isle of Man about that one, up to 100 mph gusts forecast for monday.

That's going to be one unpleasant storm. Stay safe and off the roads.
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17. ryang
8:23 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Kman 95l looks to be organizing more.lol
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
16. sandiquiz
8:21 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Thank you so much - I'll go and look - but we have been warned it could be 80-85 mph when it crosses the country.
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15. kmanislander
8:19 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
sandi

image links including the one just posted
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
14. kmanislander
8:17 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
sandi

NE Atl image
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
13. ryang
8:14 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Sandi go to www.accuweather.com.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12454
12. sandiquiz
8:11 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Hi
Can anyone tell me how to get an image of the Eastern Atlantic / European weather. We are being told there is a severe storm coming our way overnight and tomorrow (The UK) and I would like to see the progress it is making. Thanks
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11. hurricane23
3:12 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Infrared loop from FNMOC...


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10. kmanislander
8:08 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
model tracks for very late season systems are notoriously unreliable.
At this time of yr systems tend to meander all over the place including going E through the Caribbean.
While shear is high in the central and NW Caribbean winds have died down significantly here and the sun is out again. Who knows if the shear may not also relax to the N of 95L
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
9. hurricane23
2:58 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Here is another view at models for invest 95L...


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8. hurricane23
2:55 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Here is an IR shot of now invest 95L...


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7. 147257
7:46 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
interesting lets hope it hits land quick
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6. kmanislander
7:40 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I was wondering just this morning when an invest would be raised and Dr M's post referring to the disturbance as 95L means an invest classification has been determined. We should see it on the Navy site soon
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
4. tropicfreak
2:21 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Finally some Tropical weather.
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3. Bobbyweather
2:16 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Hurricane season ends in 6 days
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2. ajcamsmom
7:13 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
It is hard to believe we are looking at this at this time of year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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