New tropical disturbance 95L a threat to Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:56 PM GMT on November 24, 2006

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A tropical disturbance (95L) has formed near 11N, 79W, just north of Panama, in the extreme southern Caribbean. This disturbance has a large but disorganized area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. The latest QuikSCAT satellite imagery from 5:45am EST today caught just the east side of the disturbance, and revealed top winds of 35-40 mph. An ill-defined and elongated surface circulation was apparent in the QuikSCAT data, and some evidence of rotation can be seen on the latest visible satellite loop of the region.


Figure 1. preliminary model tracks for the Panama disturbance, 95L.

Wind shear is around 10 knots over the disturbance, which is low enough to allow some slow development over the next two days. It is possible a tropical depression could form by Sunday, as wind shear is expected to remain low over the extreme southern Caribbean. Steering currents are weak, but a slow westward motion beginning on Saturday is indicated by most of the models. The system appears to be a threat primarily to Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama. Any northward movement of the storm would bring it into a area of high wind shear that would quickly tear it apart.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 2:15pm EST Nov 24, 2006.

I'll be back Saturday morning with an update.
Jeff Masters

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202. Skyepony (Mod)
4:31 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Someone fed the 00Z 95L GFDL run some steroids...maxs out at 105kts before landfall!

No Quikscat passes this morning, not 95L, C Atlatic blob or the invest in the S Atlantic.

95L has become strong enough for a dvorak reading...
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
credit~Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37394
201. Randrewl
4:22 PM GMT on November 25, 2006

Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 31619
200. Drakoen
4:21 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251610
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH OF PANAMA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM... IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29912
199. ProgressivePulse
3:44 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
INTERESTING
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
198. ryang
3:17 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Party at my blog tonight.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12417
197. weatherguy03
3:09 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Michael, direction looks good, intensity overdone. Could cross into the Pacific intact. That is very possible.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29700
196. Drakoen
2:27 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
it doesn' tlook too bad on the IR and the satelite imagery, atleast better looking than yesterday.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29912
195. Randrewl
2:24 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
No, I don't think it is completely crazy Michael. I do think it is exaggerated as far as intensity. If it stays south something like that could happen for a short time.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 31619
193. Randrewl
2:21 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Storm positions:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/0545 UTC 11.2N 78.7W TOO WEAK 95L
24/2345 UTC 10.9N 78.3W TOO WEAK 95L


Current motion:




Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 31619
188. kmanislander
2:17 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
good morning all

95L is looking a little ragged this morning.
Although the models still call for a W drift that is not what normally prevails this time of year. In fact it looks to me like the system has already drifted N to near 12 degrees.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15729
185. Randrewl
2:16 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Oh it is just drifting a bit right now Crab. Mostly stationary. Latest track has it drifting more West than North right now. I think West will be the end result with 95L.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 31619
182. sandcrab39565
2:12 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Well any thoughts on the invest Rand?
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
171. sandcrab39565
2:02 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Found a nice lil area off 116 looks like it did in the 30s.lol
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170. Patrap
2:01 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Now you have that Wind Blown look I bet
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
169. Patrap
2:01 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Randrewl has any turkey left?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
168. sandcrab39565
2:00 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Put over 400 miles on since 5am yesterday my backside sore.lol
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
167. Randrewl
2:00 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
LOL Pat.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 31619
166. Patrap
2:00 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Did that in Okinowa once sandcrab.Only I could get lost on an Island 60nm x 12nm
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
165. Patrap
1:59 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
95L..one last ride around the invest pages..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
164. sandcrab39565
1:58 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
I kept getting on backroads got good and lost and ended up there.lol
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163. Patrap
1:58 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
On the road again!....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
162. sandcrab39565
1:57 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Yeah I am Pat thats why I took a ride may be the last nice one of the year. Keep on westcasting Rand.lol
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161. Patrap
1:57 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Natchez ,nice place..scenic sand.
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160. Randrewl
1:57 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Whoaa.....sounds like a nice ride.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 31619
159. Patrap
1:57 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
10day GFSx..brrr!Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601
158. sandcrab39565
1:56 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Well is shure beautiful here left the Natchez trace at 2am this morning. Got on the scooter yesterday in the am and thats were I ended up.lol
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
157. Patrap
1:56 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
You watching this cold push heading down come thurs-friday sandcrab?
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156. Randrewl
1:55 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Yeah Crab...but I'm Westcasting it right out of the picture.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 31619
155. Drakoen
1:54 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
it has i meant.

Look here http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29912
154. Patrap
1:54 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Like fleas on a tired Bloodhound.One more to shake off..sand.LOL
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153. sandcrab39565
1:53 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
I see we have an anoyance down south a bit.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
152. Patrap
1:52 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Up and atum I see ..sandcrab
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127601

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.