Fourth warmest October on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:56 PM GMT on November 23, 2006

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October 2006 was the 4th warmest October on record globally, according to the latest monthly report issued by the National Climatic Data Center. The period January through October was the fifth warmest on record. The El Ni´┐Żo episode that began in September significantly warmed ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which helped make global ocean temperatures for October the 3rd warmest on record. Arctic sea ice extent remained near record low levels in October at 8.4 million square kilometers.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from normal (anomaly) for October 2006. Siberia and parts of Indonesia joined North America with having below normal temperatures.

An average October for the U.S.
According to the National Climatic Data Center, October of 2006 was near average for temperature in the U.S., ranking as the 52nd coolest in the 110-year record. It was a very wet October, ranking as the 12th wettest October on record. The period January to October ranks as the 3rd warmest such period on record in the U.S., thanks to some unusually warm weather in January, April, and July.

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone! I'll have some thoughts on Florida hurricanes in Friday's blog, inspired by my just-completed trip to Florida.

Jeff Masters

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79. hurricane23
2:46 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Here is a 2km visible loop of the disturbance in the SW Caribbean.

CLICK HERE
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
78. Cregnebaa
7:05 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
That is weird here in Cayman we're in that dry air and it's 100% overcast and drizzling?
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77. stormchasher
1:48 PM EST on November 24, 2006
If this devolopes itl probaly be a td and just die.
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76. stormchasher
1:43 PM EST on November 24, 2006
It wont get swallowed alive. It will be slow like a rat getting bitten by a snake and slowly digested:)
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75. hurricane23
1:36 PM EST on November 24, 2006
One thing to note if this area of disturbed weather trys to make a move to its north it will get swallowed alive by this massive area of dry air surrounding the northern caribbean and the gulf of mexico.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
74. ryang
6:31 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
23 do you think it can affect any part of the US.
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73. hurricane23
1:29 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Hey ryang!
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
72. ProgressivePulse
6:29 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Hey at least we can say it will drift west! lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
71. ryang
6:28 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
hi 23.
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70. hurricane23
1:26 PM EST on November 24, 2006
This area has indeed become somewhat better organized over the past couple of hours.Steering currents are rather weak down there so any movement of this area will be rather slow to stationary as the NHC is suggesting.

Here is a close-up visible shot of the area.



INFRARED SHOT
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
69. stormchasher
1:16 PM EST on November 24, 2006
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 24, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of disturbed weather has formed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea just north of the coast of Panama. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next day or so as
it remains nearly stationary.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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68. Randrewl
6:01 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2006


A 1006 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W.
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67. ProgressivePulse
5:30 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Still doesn't appear to be down to the surface yet.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
66. ProgressivePulse
5:25 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Posted By: kmanislander at 4:25 PM GMT on November 24, 2006.

crazybowler

The 1:05 discussion yesterday did discuss the possibility that a surface low was forming there but the 7:05pm discussion as well as the one this morning dropped it when the convection died down overnight. There now seems to be more consistency to the convection ( which is probably why the new mention of it ) but we will have to see if it falls off again this evening.

I also remember 2 circulations yesterday,the more pronounced circulation was farther north, which is now non-existent, allowing the area to become better organized.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
65. Patrap
10:48 AM CST on November 24, 2006
Maybe..but the progs on this is nothing develops.But they can surprise us..as weve seen In the past.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
64. kmanislander
4:41 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Pat

only until tomorrow. After that the typical track this time of yr is N to NNW then NE. Would they not do an invest to watch the feature develop even while stationary ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
63. kmanislander
4:40 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
obs from Panama confirm the blob is trying to get organised

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
62. kmanislander
4:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
ok. yes I see from the sat that you are getting showers but they seem to be the usual run of the mill stuff.
Too lat in the season for you to get anything other than rain IMO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
61. Patrap
10:36 AM CST on November 24, 2006
No invest required.Synoptic feature forecasted to remain nearly stationary.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
60. ryang
4:35 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
The convection over barbados.Go too stormcarib.com and see.
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59. kmanislander
4:33 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
ryang

not sure I understand the statement/question.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
58. ryang
4:29 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
You see that convection on us.
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57. ryang
4:28 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I am not getting that site either.
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56. kmanislander
4:27 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
hi ryang

I see that. We have had very chilly weather and cool conditions for the last week but the sun is poking its head out again.
Looks like something brewing to our SSE near Panama
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
55. kmanislander
4:25 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Looks like the GHCC site is down as I have been unable to access it today. Anyone else have this problem ?

Also, I wonder when ( or if ) the Navy site will begin an invest ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
54. ryang
4:25 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
hI ALL.Pouring here.
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53. kmanislander
4:20 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
crazybowler

The 1:05 discussion yesterday did discuss the possibility that a surface low was forming there but the 7:05pm discussion as well as the one this morning dropped it when the convection died down overnight. There now seems to be more consistency to the convection ( which is probably why the new mention of it ) but we will have to see if it falls off again this evening.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
51. Patrap
4:14 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Snow..New Orleans.Christmas Day 04q
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
50. SteveDa1
3:49 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Nothing NEAR warmth in the yukon... In fact it is extremely cold. The forecast High for sunday for Whitehorse, Yukon Territory is -35C (-31F), the normal is near -9C (15.8). That is a whooping 26C below normal (56.8F)!

Just look at the 14-day trend for Whitehorse, Yukon.

See for yourself the roller coaster. By december 6th the temperature could be at 0C (32F), what a difference! It would finnaly end the brutal cold in the Yukon and Alaska. But thats not good news for the people to the south I guess, because that cold air has to go somewhere... can't just dissapear.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
49. Patrap
3:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
The GFSx shows the storm Friday..but Im not convinved yet of the track or Coldness of the push out the plains.My confidence will increase if the runs show more consistency come Monday.Have travel Plans to Baton Rouge next Friday myself..heres the GFSx..10day...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
48. cajunkid
2:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I noticed the gfs shows frozen precip. in Louisiana next Fri. and then again the following Tues. Does anyone think this cold front will be as strong as the models are predicting?
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
45. Thundercloud01221991
1:42 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Hey guys I have a ?
does any of you know of a NOAA ship that is suppossed to port in Pensacola today???
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
42. nash28
1:18 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Please Cyclone, save it.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
40. TheNeighbor
11:33 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
DrDeath

I used to live there for 30+ years before we moved to Florida. Its just an average wet autumn storm and it won't be tropical in nature therefore no name ...just wet, cool and windy. Check out the laterst comment from the UK Met Office. Link
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
39. DrDeath
9:00 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
UK Storm,

Does anyone have information on the storm due to hit the UK this weekend? 125kph / 75 mph Gusts. Category 1 ? Will this become a named storm?
38. DrDeath
8:54 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
UK storm

Does anyone have information about the storms due to hit the UK this weekend. Local papers are reporting wind speeds upto 120 KM / 75 MPH (category 1). Will this become a named storm?
37. Inyo
6:49 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
hey so-cal, looks like we may have some rain and mountain snow on the way this weekend.. perhaps up to a half an inch or so of rain in the lowlands. No rain is guaranteed until it hits the ground, but I hope this storm will bring us some rain and colder temperatures.

the long range GFS changes every run.. its pretty useless right now
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
36. Caffinehog
6:07 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
The blob doesn't look so impressive anymore, though it is still rotating.
Quickscat seems to suggest that a surface feature might be trying to form about halfway between Panama and Jamaica... not under the rotating part.
I'm really starting to think that the shear on the western side of the system is what is inhibiting this thing. I guess we'll see what happens.
Member Since: June 5, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
35. SteveDa1
4:32 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
Mail snowboy.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
34. snowboy
4:06 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
SteveDa1, indeed I am near Hamilton (out in the woods about 20 minutes west of the City)..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
33. kmanislander
3:36 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
hey there Pottery
Are you still on ?
Seems that when you are posting I am out and vice versa
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
32. mermaidlaw
3:24 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
Thank you for everything that you do DR. MASTERS! I hope you have had a wonderful Thanksgiving!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8768
31. palmettobug53
3:14 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
Dr. Masters, I hope you and yours had a very nice Thanksgiving! Thanks so much for all your information during "The Season". It is much appreciated.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24967
30. Raysfan70
1:36 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
Dr.Master and Family,

Hope that you and Your Family had a
Happy Thanksgiving.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
29. pottery
1:13 AM GMT on November 24, 2006
Kman ?????
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.