Quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:50 PM GMT on August 15, 2005

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Except for Irene, which has a nice satellite presentation with a clearly visible eye, the tropics are quiet today. Irene continues to steam out to sea, and is only a threat to shipping.

TD 10
The remains of TD 10 are near 15N 55W at noon EDT today, moving WNW at about 10 mph. One can see a clearly defined spin on satellite images, but there is no deep convection associated with the system. It is moving through the base of a huge trough that extends several thousand miles northeast to southwest across the central Atlantic, almost to the coast of South America. This trough is creating lots of wind shear over the remains of TD 10, keeping any re-development from happening. The GFS model indicates that the remains of TD 10 will take at least two days to traverse the trough and arrive in an area of lighter wind shear, which may happen by Wednesday night or Thursday as the system approaches Puerto Rico. By that time, it is questionable if there will be anything left of TD 10 to re-develop.

African Dust
The large cloud of African dust that moved off the coast yesterday is now nearly 1/3 of the way across the Atlantic. There is a fair bit of activity in the ITCZ south of this dust cloud, but anything that forms in the mid-Atlantic from the ITCZ this week will have a tough time overcoming the dry air associated with this dust cloud.

Caribbean
Strong upper-level westerly winds cover the Caribbean, and tropical development is unlikely here until these westerly winds subside. The GFS model is forecasting these winds to subside by mid-week, but the upper level winds across the Caribbean will still not look as favorable as they did in July when Dennis and Emily formed.

Jeff Masters

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152. punkasshans
8:52 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
By the way, stormtop, the dr. posted a new blog entry, so there is a new discussion board already started if you want to move to there.
151. STORMTOP
8:51 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
pressures are falloing at merida and progresso right now....
150. whirlwind
8:47 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
yeah, after that they all fizzle out or move away from land ? hahahaha
149. STORMTOP
8:39 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
i know whrwind you need to pay close attention there...this could be TD 11...and then you know what will happen after that.......
148. whirlwind
8:11 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
tell you what, looking at the WV loop, theres alot of sh1t spinning out there....
147. STORMTOP
7:58 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
im looking at the ir and there is no shear over the disturbance...
146. STORMTOP
7:54 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
i will be interested in what they say in the tropical weather outlook for 430pm with this disturbance in the gulf...it looks a hell of a lot more impressive then TD 10 does....
145. punkasshans
7:47 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Dont you think its being sheered apart as well? The visible satellite image does not look as impressive as the IR.
144. punkasshans
7:46 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
stormtop, i see what you are looking at. and i agree, the area has a lot of action. however, there is very little organization of this system. no circulation present. . yet. keep an eye on it, yes. however, i still dont see it developing. If it can keep the convection over night and it doesnt move much to the west, than we might have something to watch.

I do agree with you that there is something there, I am just saying I dont see it developing. It is a "hot spot" at the moment though. But than again, look over at the Pacific just off the coast of mexico. The whole coast is hot with activity. All of that convection and very little development. (Except for the one broad area of low pressure right now)
143. STORMTOP
7:41 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
nolook at the satellite loop there is no high pressure out there are line of thunderstorms are no shear....
142. STORMTOP
7:37 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
yes the pressures are low there and it does has a twist to it...it bears watching..
141. whirlwind
7:30 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Storm- that just looks like a burst of storms. Is the pressure low there?

One more: Theres a line of thunderstorms in the Gulf, is there a ridge or something keeping that line "low"?
140. STORMTOP
7:25 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
this is stationary right now that is whats catching my interest........
139. STORMTOP
7:20 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
punk the disturbance im talking about wont move to mexico its the other one to the side of ir will...this is becioming more concentrated and better organized..its at once again 23.0 n and 93.0 w...
138. punkasshans
6:53 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
The bay of campeche is active. . but I dont see any development of a tropical system. Those showers will move towards the coast of Mexico and wont pose a threat, in my opinion. But yes, it bears watching since the ocean temps are so warm.
137. STORMTOP
6:38 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
im watching and area in the bay of campeche that is looking not to shabby..it has cleared the yucatan and its stationary at the moment...i think this bears watching with the temps beins so warm down there....i think this has a better chance to be a tropical depression then the former td 10..its located at 23.0n and 93.ow...this bears watching for the next day...
136. punkasshans
6:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
I dont see it reaching the US. The upper level winds at the moment do not support it. But, I do see a depression by tomorrow and a storm in the few days following. It is going to have a lot of negative things to buck off its back, but I believe it will do it. I have said before, this is an Irene II. We are going to see almost the exact same storm over again.

If it can overcome the dry air around it, it will become a decent tropical storm moving NW and then who knows what. Many of the models have it moving towards the west. . many have it turning further north. Reminds you of Irene eh? (bamms to the west, all others north)
135. whirlwind
6:19 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
I think the storms that dont make it to hurricane status and just wobble around as a depression should not be named. we are just wasting names and the ones that did get named should be disqualified. haha

unfortuneltly punk, that storm will not come near us. it will be an irene, if ever. but a good fight it has put up so far
134. STORMTOP
6:18 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
it will build up the convection then the dry air from the dust will take it all away and it will lose its structure...the storm is a teaser...it will tease you punk so i wouldnt be calling it jose that will never happen..
133. punkasshans
6:15 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
I didnt say a strong storm, i just said a named storm. I never predicted Irene to be a strong storm, only a middle of the road tropical storm. I was surprised to see it become more.
132. STORMTOP
6:13 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
punk i hate to put a damper on your dream punk but the so called depression if it does develop it will stay a tropical depression for ever like irene did..the moisture i side the system does not have enough to work with...
131. punkasshans
5:49 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Here is something interesting on TD10:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv.exe?mode=browse&zoom=1&layer=country&layer=track&layer=ofcltrack&layer=allmods&layer=wind&imgxy=299.5+299.5&imgext=-73.500000+7.108333+-46.000000+34.591667&map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL102005.map&savequery=true
130. punkasshans
5:47 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
A few websites are already calling it TD10 again. . .interesting.
129. punkasshans
5:43 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
What a off the wall prediction, we have Jose and Katrina by Monday. Jose is already on his way, while Katrina will come out of the wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. Lee will be another 3 days afterwards. 13 by the 24th, hows that for a predictions?!

But as for now, the former TD10, soon to be TD10 again and potentially Jose is all we need to be looking at. Watch it to be called TD10 again later today or by tomorrow morning.
128. punkasshans
5:38 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Looks like we have Irene II. . TD10 is going to be back in action and be Jose soon, I have faith in him. Weird to have two storms act exactly the same way in a row. Completely die out and come back to life. The question now is; will Jose stay south and pose a threat to the United States and the islands, or will it pull north and out to sea.

Ok, i will try not to be like stormtop and name a storm before it is officially named. The POTENTIAL Jose. Hows that?
127. weatherguy03
5:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
weatherguy03@yahoo.com...Uh oh I hope Alec isnt looking..Lmao..Thanks again Stormtop.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
126. STORMTOP
5:20 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
ok weatherguy..i didnt think you wanted me flood your mailbox with the lawsuits...i will send you as much as i can...whats your email?
125. iyou
5:07 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
I'm wondering if it is the GOES-12 - http://www.astronautix.com/chrono/20013.htm
Member Since: July 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
124. weatherguy03
4:49 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Oh no I met the viper model stuff Stormtop.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
123. STORMTOP
4:46 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
i will try naples im looking for it now for everyone..
122. napleswx
4:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Stormtop could you provide a link to some information on the viper? I would like to read more about it.
121. STORMTOP
4:42 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
weatherguy i do like the viper and i trust in the viper also...this is the newest model they have andi think it will help them greatly in the future...
120. STORMTOP
4:38 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
whirlwind right now the viper is used strictly for the gulf coast as for as i know..i havent seen it used anywhere else..
119. weatherguy03
4:38 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Oh I understand..I did my thesis on numerical modeling..I was just trying to get your input on why you think the way you do. Alot of people come on these blogs and just spit out statements without backing it up so that we could debate it. I like that you have supporting information, it makes for a good debate.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
118. STORMTOP
4:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
weather guy of the lawsuits? it may take a huge amount of space up on your emails...i am going to try and find the site for you can see for yourself...im not trying to fool anyone this is true info open to the public...
117. STORMTOP
4:31 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
yes they do but its what the nhc feeds into them and all the data that is reported in from the recon plane and the atmospheric conditions that surround the storm once they penetrate it....when they compile all this info it is fed to the computers and im not sure a formula is also fed in each one and they spit out a path what the hurricane will do...its really not the models fault its the people who feed all this info in to them and thats how they come up with there path...
116. weatherguy03
4:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
I would also like that info Stormtop if you could e-mail me it. Thanks again.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
115. weatherguy03
4:27 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
But see just under 50% in meteorology is excellent. And probably that has risen in the last few years. I still remember what my professor told me on my first day of weather class in college. Meteorology is not an EXACT SCIENCE. Just under 50% to me is great. So they do know something about hurricanes then.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
114. STORMTOP
4:26 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
whirlwind i will try my best to get it for you...its new and they use it very spraringly...its mostly for the gulf coast region and i can tell you this the viper was right on for cindy which passed directly over new orleans and dennis...this is a fabulous model...i dont think it has been tried anywhere else...
113. weatherguy03
4:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Hey Evan and all check out Steve's blog he just gave an update on TD 10.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
112. STORMTOP
4:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
yes weather guy i would have to research all the lawsuits against the nhc on the kind of models..if you give me a few days i would gladly post this material i doont think the nhc would be happy about it but yes i did a research going back just 3 years and the models were under 50%...i will be glad to post the lawsuits that are still pending and that might take up lots of pages because there are several thousand of them still pending...
111. whirlwind
4:22 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Stormtop- is there a link for the viper like for the other models?

And how come there arent any viper model predictions when a hurricane is present?
110. STORMTOP
4:18 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
right you are weatherguy..if and i mean if TD10 develops...which i dont think will happen with all the dry air it will dissipate..
109. weatherguy03
4:18 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
My question to you Stromtop was: Have you ever studied numerical models? You never answered this. I think if we make statements like "models dont know about hurricanes." We should have some facts to back this up, thats all.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
108. STORMTOP
4:17 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
im sorry whirlwind but do a 3 year study and see how you come out if you are over 50% correct...you will be very surprise what you will fingd out this year...the only reason the models have done good this year is because of viper...viper can see things do things the models cant do ...like seeing the african dust....if there is one model i trust its the viper..they use it very little i guess because its been so right...
107. weatherguy03
4:14 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
Evan to answer your question about the high pressure. The current forecast has High pressure that now stretches from E.FLorida to the Bahamas to move west and southwest. A weak trough is forecasted to move into the southeastern US and weaken. This on the short term would create a NW movement of TD 10. As long as High pressure remains over or close to Florida storm will not move west towards Florida. Again almost taking an Irene path.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
106. whirlwind
4:13 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
thanks for the support :/

stupid models...
105. STORMTOP
4:12 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
look at the big plume of dust right behind the system..it will eat its lunch...
104. STORMTOP
4:10 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
lolplain in and simple answer the models are stupid...i do not have anty trust in them...i just hope they have one coming to new orleans this year then you will see how these models are most of the time out to lunch...you know i would like for someone to come up with a study foe every model that forcasted a hurricane how did it do..al you guys talk about is this year im talking back years lets see if we can come up with a percentage for the models in the last 3 years and see if they are over 50%..i think you will be very surprised...
103. 147257
4:04 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
l0l @ whirlwind we have seen bigger ones and they died too
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
102. STORMTOP
4:03 PM GMT on August 16, 2005
lol@whilrwind in your dreams there a cat 5 coming off the coast of africa.....you have to wait all this week before the trade winds settle down and the dust clears the atmosphere...you will see a definite increase in tropical activity by tuesday of next week...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.