Typhoon Chebi less destructive than feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2006

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Typhoon Chebi slammed into the main island of Luzon in the Philippines last night at 6pm EST as a Category 3 storm with top winds of 120 mph. There are no reports of deaths yet, and damage appears to be much less than occurred for Super Typhoon Cimaron, which made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 15, left 2500 homeless, and destroyed about 8% of the island's rice and corn crop. However, Chebi was a much weaker typhoon, and dumped far less rain on the Philippines since it moved across the islands relatively quickly. Rainfall estimates by NOAA (Figure 1) show maximum rain amounts from Chebi were in the 4-7 inch range, which should not cause the kind of widespread flash flooding and landslides that are the primary hazard of typhoons in the Philippines. Cimaron dumped about 50% more rain on the Philippines than Chebi did.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for Typhoon Chebi. Image credit: NOAA


Figure 2. Typhoon Chebi shortly after landfall. Image credit: NRL Navy Reasearch Lab.

My next blog will be Monday, when I plan to discuss a new hurricane-like storm found on Saturn.

Jeff Masters

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211. Skyepony (Mod)
4:21 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
You realise that last article says CO2 is expected to raise the SSTs? NOAA totally says global warming is inpart due to humans & has for the last few years.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37377
210. Skyepony (Mod)
4:16 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
As for your 1st example..
Does the Research Council do research? Fund research?

The National Research Council has no research laboratories. Rather than conducting its own research, it generally evaluates and compiles research done by others. However, in a few cases and increasingly so in recent years, the institution has been funding research in areas such as transportation, medical care, highways, and international scientific and technical programs in developing countries.

So without a link there, we can't see what funded their references, if the references are even listed.

source

The National Research Council is mostly funded by the government, though a small % is funded by industrial organizations.

Your second example doesn't fit in the catagory of current research. Current is important as more resources & better tests have been developed to prove or disprove.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37377
209. Patrap
3:55 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
A more recent paper on Co2rise and Hurricanes, with simulationsLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
208. Patrap
3:15 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
Its sort of dated material..But the numbers have grown ..if I can find the darn thing I saved with the recent data somewhere around this System running on Gum..and gentle taps Ive got.LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
207. Patrap
3:11 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
Seriously..heres a good read on the CO2 discussion..with the numbers and graphs from an unbiased source.Great readLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
206. ricderr
3:13 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
seaknight...we can quote so many needs for reducing oil and lessenning polution..without using unproven global warming theories as the catalyst
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
205. Patrap
3:07 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
Im all for Iceberg herding..Yahooooo!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
204. Patrap
3:07 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
We shall see .....but stash some freon..just in case.LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
203. Seaknight8
3:06 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
ric,

Thanks for the postings on GW. Appreciate your effort to avoid polemics & stick to serious studies.

Guess my take on that is that, given the general agreement on the dire consequences of continued GW, if there is any possibility that human activity is a contributing factor (not necessarily the sole cause), we should do something about what is under our control.
Member Since: November 1, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
202. Patrap
3:06 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
If man is still alive..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
201. Patrap
3:04 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
In the year 2525
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
199. ricderr
2:24 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
next........

THE EFFECT OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES
Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural variability inherent in the climate record and the uncertainties in the time histories of the various forcing agents (and particularly aerosols), a causal linkage between the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the observed climate changes during the 20th century cannot be unequivocally established. The fact that the magnitude of the observed warming is large in comparison to natural variability as simulated in climate models is suggestive of such a linkage, but it does not constitute proof of one because the model simulations could be deficient in natural variability on the decadal to century time scale. The warming that has been estimated to have occurred in response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is somewhat greater than the observed warming. At least some of this excess warming has been offset by the cooling effect of sulfate aerosols, and in any case one should not necessarily expect an exact correspondence because of the presence of natural variability.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
198. ricderr
2:21 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
point number one....that must be addressed.....regardless of which side of the fence you sit on........
Although warming at Earth's surface has been quite pronounced during the past few decades, satellite measurements beginning in 1979 indicate relatively little warming of air temperature in the troposphere. The committee concurs with the findings of a recent National Research Council report,1 which concluded that the observed difference between surface and tropospheric temperature trends during the past 20 years is probably real, as well as its cautionary statement to the effect that temperature trends based on such short periods of record, with arbitrary start and end points, are not necessarily indicative of the long-term behavior of the climate system. The finding that surface and troposphere temperature trends have been as different as observed over intervals as long as a decade or two is difficult to reconcile with our current understanding of the processes that control the vertical distribution of temperature in the atmosphere.


Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
197. ricderr
2:16 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
ok...skye....let's start with this.....in a 2 minute search i'm not sure yet if i agree...but just using this as one of many that support my viewpoint of GW....will need to research more to see if i agree totally or not..then..i'll research the money trail....here's who they are first


The National Research Council is part of the National Academies, which also comprise the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and Institute of Medicine. They are private, nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology and health policy advice under a congressional charter. The Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of further knowledge and advising the federal government.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
196. nash28
1:51 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
Yeah Ric. That area that the models are forecasting development is under about 10kts of shear. It is the only area favorable for development.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
195. ricderr
1:49 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
skye......i will do my best....sounds like fun
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
194. Skyepony (Mod)
1:45 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
quickscat of the gale

I think it slightly weakened through the night, now 1000mb.

ricderr~ I would like to challenge you to find one current scientific study, that is not funded by an oil company, that says global warming is not in anyway caused by humans. If you do please e-mail it to me & Dr Masters would probibly like a link too as this challenge has been set forth to all in the past & noone thus far has completed the task at hand. Good luck on your quest & remember to check sources & funding carefully.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37377
193. ricderr
1:12 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
nah...do you see anywhere that the shear will die down enough for development?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
192. nash28
1:11 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
Good morning folks. Let's discuss the possible tropical development in the W. Carribbean this week.

I'll be off and on this morning. I have a meeting right now, so I'll be back in a bit.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
191. Patrap
1:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
The next US Storm by the GFSx and a lil blip in the Carribean..up and away!...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
188. ricderr
1:04 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
cb.......ok...here's your mission...you want something to do that is constructive rather than pie in the sky dreaming....prove....that golobal warming...is indeed man made...rather than a natural occurence
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
185. Patrap
12:50 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
The East coast radar animated..Wet Day in the N-Linkeast.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
184. Tazmanian
12:37 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
cyclonebuster i dont give a rate


the nhc Mission is help To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic


that what the nhc dos now what is your point stop posting the same thing or i will it ! if you want 2 post it in your blog find but not of dr m blog Please stop posting the same thing evere 5ms none of us give a rate
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
183. Tazmanian
12:32 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
: cyclonebuster stop postin tha her in dr m blog i am starting 2 get try of seeing the same post evere 5ms or waht evere
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
182. Fast5
12:32 PM GMT on November 13, 2006
The GOES Floater Imagery 30 minute updates has been inactive since last night.
Hum, got a Sat. down?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
180. StoryOfTheCane
11:09 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
179. BahaHurican
10:48 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
This is the tropical discussion comment on the wave we have been following. It sounds very noncommittal to me.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND IT REMAINS LESS OBVIOUS THAN IT WAS A FEW DAYS AGO.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
STILL IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. A TROUGH
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N51W AND GOES TO 22N58W...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N66W...TO THE AREA
OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
IS BEING PRODUCED ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE
IS MOVING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS NORTH OF 15N60W
13N65W 12N70W BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
178. BahaHurican
10:44 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
Morning all,

I've been reading yesterday's discussion and looking at the forecast models' 00Z runs. It seems they are all more consistent about developing something in the EPac than in the WCar. CMC seems to have practically dropped the WCar feature.

Wonder if we'll see a similar shift at 12Z . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
177. Hurricaneblast
8:17 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
Well this storm (if it does form) would make the Atlantic top out as an "average year". I'm amazed and extremely thankful for this years inactivity. I hope it stays like this next year too. The people who were affected by the hurricanes last year deserve this kind of break from storms.
Member Since: February 14, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 3626
176. hurricane23
8:14 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
Good morning,

Just checking in real quick before going to work The 00z GFS continues being very persistent with development in the southwest caribbean .
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13629
175. StoryOfTheCane
8:03 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
not much shear in southwest caribbean
168. hurricane23
4:29 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
Hey ajcamsmom! Global models indicate that tropical cyclone development might occur in the western caribbean.Some models are more aggressive then others and tracks are also vary with each model.The key thing to look at here is the overall consensus in the models.

NOTE:The GFDL is also showing low-pressure in the western caribbean.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13629
166. mgreen91
4:02 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
A number of storms that formed in 2005 exhibited unusual behavior and challenged forecasters' ability to make correct predictions. Hurricane Vince formed farther northeast in the Atlantic than any other tropical cyclone on record, and then unexpectedly reached hurricane strength over waters considered too cold to support a hurricane.[38] Hurricane Wilma became one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes on record, and later strengthened unexpectedly in the face of strong wind shear.[49] Tropical Storm Delta, Hurricane Epsilon and Tropical Storm Zeta all formed over the cold waters of the late-season eastern Atlantic, much like Hurricane Vince (though at lower latitudes). All three persisted in the face of heavy wind shear, and Epsilon managed to reach hurricane strength over waters well below the temperatures previously thought necessary for hurricane formation. Epsilon became the longest-lasting December hurricane[44] while Zeta became the longest-lasting storm in January.[45]

Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
165. ajcamsmom
3:47 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
Hurricane 23, If something were to develop in the Western Caribbean, where would it likely head and when?
164. hurricane23
3:17 AM GMT on November 13, 2006
00Z NAM still going with development in the western caribbean....

00Z NAM loop
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13629

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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