Late season Atlantic tropical storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:50 PM GMT on November 06, 2006

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There is currently no tropical activity of note in the Atlantic, nor do the models predict there will be any over the next six days. Wind shear over most of the tropical Atlantic is high and is expected to remain so for at least the next two weeks, which is typical for November in an El Nino year. However, we have to watch the Western Caribbean later this week, as the NOGAPS model predicts that wind shear may drop enough to support a tropical disturbance that could bring heavy rains to the region.

What are the odds of getting a tropical storm between now and April in the Atlantic? Well, if the past is any indication (Figure 1), we should expect no further activity in the Atlantic. Since 1950, when El Nino conditions have existed in the November-January period, as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, only 37% of those years have seen a late season tropical storm. There have been an average of 2.9 days per year when a named storm has been present in the Atlantic during those years. In La Nina years, late season tropical storm activity is 60% higher--about 5 named storm days per year. This year, we are experiencing a moderate El Nino (SSTs at least 1 degree above normal in the Equatorial region off the Pacific coast of South America). Late season Atlantic tropical storms have occurred in only 3 of 11 (27%) years with a moderate or strong El Nino.


Figure 1. Number of days per year that a named storm was present in the Atlantic during November-April. Years marked with a red "E" were El Nino years. Note that it is common to have zero late season tropical storms during El Nino years. It is interesting to note that there appears to be an increase in late season storms in the Atlantic in recent years. However, as I've discussed in a previous blog, this increase has not been seen in the Pacific Ocean.

My next update will be Wednesday, unless there's new tropical activity to talk about.

Jeff Masters

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370. lobcarl
12:43 AM GMT on November 10, 2006
Just wondering if anyone knows why the NWS are gving these scary marine forcasts. 5 to 10 with 17 to 21 foot seas. HONEST TO GOD.
369. BourbonRhett
2:35 PM GMT on November 08, 2006
Id say the South could grow enough corn & Sugar cane in 1 season to produce enough ethanol.To wean us off the Messy crude thing.Easy.But as the wise Skyepony says..too many interest with power to make that happen.But a new day dawns here in the Nation.The voice of the people has spoken.Overwhellmingly.
368. Skyepony (Mod)
2:00 PM GMT on November 08, 2006
pottery~ please realize all Americians don't feel this way. Everything saying that global warming isn't a problem is funded in the end by oil companys & yes there is many that won't take the time to look up sources to realize this or love their oil loving republician ideals too much to doubt it enough to look for themselves. I was sorely disappointed that only one republican I could vote for wanted to move away from oil & he was only for biodeseil. Atleast the demecrates won the house.

Experts: Global Warming Threatens Ruins

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
367. Skyepony (Mod)
1:51 PM GMT on November 08, 2006
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
366. mrpuertorico
12:20 PM GMT on November 08, 2006
due to higher then normal sst's coral bleaching has increased this year the worst year so far on the island! and to add insult to injury coral spawning has as of yet not occured. Researchers believe the coral's spawing period hasn't occured due to the amount of stress on the corals from the heat. Indeed in shallow waters researchers have measured water temps at 91 degrees! lno one knows if the corals will be able to spawn yet. ---i tried to post this earlier but it didn't post this is a retry---
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
365. mrpuertorico
12:11 PM GMT on November 08, 2006
news from the tropics...ddddd.dddddd.. sorry couldn't resist, coral spawning has still not occurred this year(ussually occurs october 28-nov-7) the reason researchers on the island say is due to high sst's around the island also noted coral bleaching this year was the worst they had ever seen, these factors combine to paint a pretty bad picture for the future or puerto rico's coral reefs. Also noted that many on the tropical frogs found in "el yunque" have been found with many deformities, third arm or extra head and others are just plain sick and dying.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
364. pottery
11:26 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Good Morning.... There is much disscussion re. Global Warming, and the cause of that. The fact is, that there is plenty of good evidence to show its causes and the possible outcome. There is also the historical view that the condition is cyclical. The evidence is still coming in from both camps. My own feeling is that we are able to reduce emissions over the near future,starting NOW so that we can have some chance of dealing with the issue in a meaningful way in future, while we await the outcome of continuing research. The argument that goes " we dont need to change anything because we're not sure...."' is a bankrupt and totally foolish argument, that comes out of America more than it comes out of anywhere esle on the Planet....Have a nice day..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
363. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:46 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
========================
East Pacific
========================

Storm ID:TD

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Depression 19E 12.7N 104.5W -- 30 knots 1007 mb

Storm Status
Tropical Depression 19E (NONAME) has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots.

Warning Alert
Tropical Depression (TD) is approx. 430 nm southwest of Acapulco, Mexico moving northwest at 7 knots.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46132
360. hurricane23
5:38 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Yea strong winds were felt in many places in southflorida.The CAT 2 winds that were reported from the keys to this day is unbelievable.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
358. hurricane23
5:25 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Good evening,

Just remembering the storm of the century in march 93...What a incredibly powerful system that was with its affects being reached in many different locals.Some of its affects included Sub-freezeing temps in northern florida,winds gusts to near 100mph reported on the dry tortugas,and 5-9ft of storm surge from the gulf-coast to the florida keys.Indeed truly a system that does occour very often as damage estimates were around 1.6 million dollars.

Here is an IR image of the system making its way threw the southeast.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
356. Wishcasterboy
5:23 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Before you twist what I said into something about Global Warming heres the definition....

To change to fit a new situation or set of
circumstances, as humans.
355. Wishcasterboy
5:19 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Some day we will have to adapt to changes in climate whether we like it or not, or we will die!!
352. Wishcasterboy
4:28 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Have some mercy on my poor little brain.
330. Wishcasterboy
3:19 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Posted By: Randrewl at 2:18 AM GMT on November 08, 2006.

Yep....they certainly make it diverse.


Actress Adrienne Shelly's hanging death in her West Village office bathroom looked like suicide. It turned out to be murder.
The stunning whodunit was cracked yesterday after cops linked a bathtub sneaker print to a teen construction worker who allegedly snapped when Shelly made a noise complaint last week, sources said.

Diego Pillco, a 19-year-old illegal immigrant who had been renovating the apartment below Shelly's office, told cops in a chilling confession that he was afraid of getting
arrested and deported, sources said.


I don't have time to talk but this is all I need to say. Rand you're a sick man, and what you said was completely racist. You're an insane fear mongering xenophobiac!!
328. HurricaneMyles
3:06 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Thank you. Thats what I was looking for. It does make sense, but natural laws dont always obey sense.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
325. MichaelSTL
3:02 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
From Dr. Masters:
Researchers announced last month that the total ozone levels in the Arctic dropped up to 30% during the annual springtime breakup of the polar vortex, a new record loss in the Arctic. The ozone destruction was caused by human-emitted chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) present in the stratosphere. Strangely, observations show that levels of CFCs and other ozone depleting gases are at a maximum now and are beginning to decline, thanks to the adoption of the Montreal Protocol in 1987. So why are we seeing record ozone losses?

(more)
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
323. HurricaneMyles
2:59 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
I have googled it buster, thats why Im asking where you got it. I cant find anything stating increase in sea level will cause more volcanoes and earthquakes.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
321. HurricaneMyles
2:53 AM GMT on November 08, 2006
Cyclone, I'm looking up NOX in reference to Ozone depletion and it doesnt destroy Ozone itself. Its a catalyst for CHC and such. If we remove those NOX has nothing to help along. The pressure increases from sea rise causing increase in earthquakes and volcanoes is something I havent heard before. Sources please? BTW, Dr. Masters posted it in the blog on more then one occasion.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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