Heavy rains continue for the Western Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on November 03, 2006

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An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is associated with a tropical disturbance (93L). This disturbance has not gotten better organized since yesterday, and is not expected to become a tropical depression, due to 20 knots of wind shear and close proximity to land. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 6:30am EST today showed some strong winds of 40-50 mph offshore of Belize, but there was no surface circulation evident, and not even a shift of wind direction. 93L will drift westward and continue to bring heavy rains to Belize, Guatemala, the Yucatan, and Honduras over the next two days. about seven inches of rain has fallen in Belize City in the past 72 hours, and rainfall rates of an inch per hour (yellow color, Figure 2) were apparent last night from this storm.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for 93L in the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates from NASA's TRMM satellite taken at 8:39pm EST Thursday November 2. The yellow colors correspond to rainfall rates of about 1 inch/hour (25.4 mm/hr).

Thingamabobbercane is gone today, having been destroyed by high wind shear and cold waters. There is nothing else of note to discuss, and the models are not forecasting any significant developments in the tropical Atlantic for the coming week.

Jeff Masters

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213. LowerCal
1:27 AM GMT on November 05, 2006
...
2205 UTC SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 3N MOVING W 12 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA MORE OF WIND FLOW CONFLUENCE AND OROGRAPHIC NATURE
THAN WAVE RELATED. LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 9N88W DRIFTING W JUST
AHEAD OF WAVE. EXPECT BOTH FEATURES TO MERGE AS WAVE AXIS
CATCHES UP WITH LOW PRES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
240 NM RADIUS OF S SEMICIRCLE EVIDENT WITH LOW PRES.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 2N MOVING W 10 KT HAS SURPRISINGLY
SURVIVED THE COLD DRY OUTBURST OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION W
OF AXIS FROM 7N TO 12N. ALTHOUGH GAP WINDS AND ADVERSE WINDS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN WAVE...MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AWAIT WAVE W OF 100W...IF IT MAKES IT SO FAR.
...

Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
212. LowerCal
9:36 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
The circulation W of Costa Rica was less interesting this morning.

1605 UTC SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC ...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK MOSTLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND 1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 9N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
EVIDENT WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS FEATURE.

...

This afternoon the convection has increased loop


and there is surface circulation too.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
210. Tazmanian
7:53 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
hmmmmmmmmm no dr m update today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
207. G35Wayne
6:53 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
yeah the tropics are dead until 2007 what a dead year!
206. Patrap
6:20 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
The Breach..17th St.Canal, a Reminder that next year..will be another year.WoW
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
205. pottery
5:18 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
not that I expect that 40 w wave to become anything of interest, its just that 4 or 5 weeks after it stops raining on the Orinoco basin the water around here gets nice and clean, and 100 lb wahoo start feeding. Its the best time of the year here. Cooler too, with a n/e breeze instead of s/e
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
204. pottery
5:10 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
Hello all. Looks to be wintertime now for you all. I'm still looking at that wave at about 40w.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
201. Patrap
4:25 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
Forget the Tropics till next Summer...The action this week will all be in the US Southern Zones...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
200. Skyepony (Mod)
4:00 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
Well I said may develop since some past runs had it looking more tropical for a while but yeah lastnight's & this mornings aren't looking so favorable.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37791
199. Tazmanian
3:57 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
91C and 93L are gone from the navy site now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
197. Drakoen
3:32 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
probably get picked up by a dumbass trough
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30110
196. Skyepony (Mod)
3:15 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
Here's this mornings discussion on the "big Mess"
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15
KT. DISTINCTIVE INVERTED-V TURNING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 30W-45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

FORMOSA

The models say it may develop, but nothing major & all call for it to head north.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37791
195. Drakoen
3:05 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
as far i am concered the Atlantic 2006 Hurricane Season is over. The shear (HBIC) well probably eventually rip it part.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30110
194. StoryOfTheCane
2:53 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
check out this big mess



193. stormy3
1:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
WOW where is everyone, weather must be quiet. Guess i'll go to bed. 12 down 24 to go this weekend, then i can sit back and lurk.
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
192. Patrap
4:45 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Bourbon St..Chilly..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
190. pottery
4:31 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
anyway I'm out. Have a good one..........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
189. pottery
4:24 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Yar, I saw that on the news. Walls and fences and armed personel. Have a sister just south of Tuscon. Its an issue for her.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
188. Wishcasterboy
4:20 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
The US Mexico immigration issue. But I wouldn't actually call it a issue of them more than it is an issue of my country.
186. Wishcasterboy
4:15 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Nothing to do with weather but it sure is interesting.
184. pottery
4:12 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
not much going on here at all Wishcaster, how about you?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
183. pottery
4:10 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
good evening aquak9, why not a " chamber of weather" . I think {'ll build one forthwith.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
182. Gatorgrrrl
4:10 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
No I was gatorx then Prof.Physics...now I am me...good night. Have a great evening.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
181. Wishcasterboy
4:09 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Gatorgrrrl I haven't seen you around much, are you new?
180. Wishcasterboy
4:07 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Just stoping by for whatever.
179. Gatorgrrrl
4:04 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
I know the name thing has been insane!
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
178. aquak9
3:58 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Good evening and "Chamber of Commerce" weather to everyone.
Just a warm Wuban fly-by from an old dog.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25833
177. pottery
3:49 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
I spend days conjuring up an image, based on a name, then it changes, and changes AGAIN. How would you like it if I became, say, Nimrod......

Evening Blush.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
176. pottery
3:45 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Have a good one.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
175. Gatorgrrrl
3:44 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Good evening all...pottery (blushing)
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
174. LowerCal
3:44 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
My wife is home and we have a date. I enjoyed our chatting and I'd like to continue another time. Pleasant dreams.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
173. pottery
3:42 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
that should be 90% not 90 5
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
172. pottery
3:41 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Not a hurricane here. But we are a 2 island state which includes Tobago. They had Flora in the 60 s, and that did plenty damage. The closest one recently was Ivan in Grenada that destroyed 90 5 of the buildings there.and tore the bark off the Nutmeg trees...... They are 90 miles away,
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
171. LowerCal
3:34 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Have you ever personally experienced a hurricane on Trinidad? I don't remember seeing one that far south.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
170. pottery
3:33 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
I'm sure if the price was good we would have been told. Alcoa is building a smelter in Iceland as well. The courts there say its illegal, the gov there is going ahead . Alcoa does not have many scruples, and somebody will always have their hand out..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
169. pottery
3:29 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Nah, we have huge oil and gas depasits, we dont need tourists. We do have a big (2500) foriegn yatch population at this time of the year, because yatch insurance is void between Grenada and Florida during hurricane season. This after 1000 boats went down in and around St. Martin, with much loss of life, a few years ago. Cant remember the name, but it was 10 yrs or so.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
168. LowerCal
3:24 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Oh, that is raw! Hopefully it's because you're getting a really good price .... but then again, I guess you'll never know. :(
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
167. LowerCal
3:22 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
[explitive deleted] $

What's your tourism industry like? Won't those polluters affect that?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
166. pottery
3:20 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
and check this...the gov. cant disclose what ALCOA is paying us for our gas, because its a secret. ITS MY F>ING GAS.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
165. pottery
3:18 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
We have a maniac prime minister, and our opposition is in complete dissaray. The leader having been charged with corruptly receiving huge sums of $. The awful thing is that a big part of this population sees this as jobs for the boys......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
164. LowerCal
3:17 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
It's embarassing but I haven't been that far north yet. :[ The wife and I should take the train up the coast some weekend soon.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
163. pottery
3:13 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
I spent a great week San Francisco some yrs ago, but I love it here. Guess I'm just a small island boy at heart.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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