TD 10 dies, Irene moving out, more African dust

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:55 PM GMT on August 14, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

Irene
Irene has begun its turn, and is now moving out to sea on a NNE course. Recent satellite images show a decrease in convective clouds over her, and I expect the 2pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission will find a weaker storm. Irene still has a chance to make it to hurricane status over the next day or so, but that would be a surprise.

TD 10
TD 10 got ripped apart by winds from a big trough that penetrated unusually far south for this time of year. The current wind shear forecast shows relatively high shear hanging around the vicinity of TD 10's remains, so regeneration of this system is unlikely over the next few days.

African Dust
Another big area of Saharan dust is moving off of the coast of Africa today between latitiudes 12N and 17N, and has pushed as far west as the Cape Verde Islands. The associated dry air will cause problems later in the week for any tropical storms that try to develop in the mid-Atlantic.

It looks like a quiet beginning of the week in the tropics!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 118 - 68

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

118. jollyroger
3:03 AM GMT on August 16, 2005
How is the weather in the Bahamas in Aug.? We are planning on spending next week there.
117. STORMTOP
9:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
THATS WHAT IN SAYONG JED THIS DISTURBANCE IS MVING NNW NOT WEST,,,THE LOW TO THE NOTHE IS AFFECTING THE MOVEMENT...THIS WILL BE IN THE GULF VERY SOON...it has water temps 90 degrees are highter...
116. Jedkins
9:53 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Down there?85 to 90% of the gulf is at least 90 the yucatan is not the only area.
115. STORMTOP
7:17 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
THE AREA AT 20 AND 86 IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE LOW TO THE NORTH IN THE GULF..IF THIS CLEARS THE YUCATAN AND GETS IN THE GULF WE WILL HAVE A REAL STORM ON OUR HANDS..THE temps are 90 degrees down there...this area is moving nnw at a pretty good clip...
114. punkasshans
5:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
I dont see anything coming out of it either, but it sure is stormy down there. Its something to watch for the next 24 hrs, if the t-storms can spin something up quickly it might have a chance. But it is VERY close to land.
113. Jedkins
4:53 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Seems like y'all may be trying to make somthin out of nothin huh?
112. Jedkins
4:52 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
I forecast nothing to develop that settles it lol,but no really I dont think there will be any system developing from it.
111. weatherguy03
4:35 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Hey guys I was gonna get your opinion on the Carribean "system", I see you guys were talking about it. Looking at the FSU model, run to run, it has been trying to develope this and move it into the Bay of Campeche. Yes Hawk High pressure is actually forecasted to move West into the Gulf by weeks end, so I think if anything does develop down there it would be shunted W or WNW. Any more opinions on this?
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
110. Hawkeyewx
3:43 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Stormtop, it looks like the surface high pressure area will remain across the southeast US for a few more days and that would likely block anything from moving northward. Maybe the disturbance can move into the Bay of Campeche and get stuck, who knows.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1923
109. WSI
3:26 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Read the explanation here Stormtop...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/other/dlm_faq.html
108. WSI
3:22 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
I never said pressure guides the system Stormtop. I said that the storm can be guided by the steering currents, based on its size. Usually, the pressure of the storm will have a direct relation to its size. How else do you explain why they give different steering maps for storms with different pressures? I understand that lows, highs, troughs, etc guide a storm. But winds that are at 30,000ft are not going to guide a storm that is at 20,000ft. Maybe I a missing something.
107. Jedkins
3:20 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
I do not think it will follow the same path though but I think it could redevelop and this is the system we should be watching most not upper lows the NHC says are unlikely to develop.
106. Jedkins
3:18 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Watch the remnants of td 10 closely if it redevelops it looks like it would be a storm that florida should watch but too early to tell though.
105. Jedkins
3:14 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Irene looks immpresive now and appears to have doubled in size with a huge ball of very deep convetion throughout the whole hurricane.
104. STORMTOP
3:12 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
hawk do you see the upper level low to the north of it in the gulf..do you think its possible it could steer this more northward...look at the water vapor loops shows up clearly ...
103. STORMTOP
3:09 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
thanks jeff ill remember that...
102. STORMTOP
3:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
yes hawk i was hoping something would form that would pull it more north...i guess its not in the cards..
101. STORMTOP
3:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
first before i go i have to tell you this wsi....the steering in a storm is always different...its what guides a storm where the high may be situated if the sterring currents are weak or if the shear or trough is coming down from the north...its not the pressure wsi..the pressure does not guide a storm a weakness can guide a storm but i will have to say more later...im not laughing at you at least you are trying to learn...you come up with some good analysis sometime i think you are very intelligent and i for one am glad to have you on this board...ill explain more later....
100. Hawkeyewx
3:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Stormtop, I noticed that western Caribbean activity as well, but it appears it will move west into land before it can do anything.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1923
99. jeff14photos
3:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
cavity stormtop you get that when you talk bad about people for so long
98. jeff14photos
3:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
what up yall
97. STORMTOP
3:00 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
you never even made it ti first wsi lol..but at least you are trying..i will explain the whole concept when i get back from the dentist....
96. STORMTOP
2:59 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
85 degrees has become more concentrated and the shear that was there yesterday looks like it slacked off quite a bit...this is looking good at the moment lots of deep reds...
95. punkasshans
2:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Yes Hawk, this storm definately is something to keep an eye on. Any circulation in the tropics is something that has to be watched. Irene will always be in my momory as something that was completely dead, no convection. . . but came back to life to be a decent storm. It may not have hit anything, but it shows that it can happen. I wouldnt doubt that the former TD10 stays alive and it is re-instated either tomorrow or the next day. I mean, we cant go more than 4 days without a new storm!
94. Hawkeyewx
2:33 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
TD10's remnant circulation actually became more well defined overnight thanks to a few small blobs of convection that fired up. Several 12z models have also shifted sw with the track of this system. The BAMs now take it a little bit north of Puerto Rico. It could get interesting if it can keep a decent circulation and stay farther south, because something just north of PR might continue to get steered toward the wnw.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1923
93. WSI
2:28 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
How am I lost? What part of that is off base? Respectfully Stormtop, you are the last person on these blogs that can tell anyone they are lost in a fog.
92. STORMTOP
2:20 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
LMAO @WSI....what are you talking about? you are lost in the fog..
91. punkasshans
1:34 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
TD 10 reminds me a lot of Irene. Became something quickly and then dissipated. Could it follow the same pattern and then rebuild into a storm later on? Could be. Will have to watch over the next 2 days and see what happens.


Oh, and for everyone that doubted my forecast for Irene. . look at the track, look at what I predicted. . looks a lot alike. (but thats just me bragging for a few seconds)

Irene as a hurricane. . i didnt expect that. But at this point, its out to sea and gone. Now to watch the former TD10 and see if it gets its act back together. Jose. . .Jose!!!
90. WSI
1:21 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
I am no expert, but the size of the storm matters when it comes to steering. If you go here..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

You will see that they have different levels of steering for the kind of storm you have (they base the storm on pressure). A more shallow system may be steered differently than a larger storm (since a taller storm can go up to 50k ft and beyond). On the first level on that site, the steering currents can be as low as 5000ft (850mb) for a really small storm. Now as far as shear, anything that prevents convective clouds from gaining height (shearing the tops off the storms as I have heard it called) will kill the storm or hinder development. There are mid level shear maps and upper level sheap maps on the link I just posted. Logic suggests that a shallow system would be torn apart by mid-level shear more than upper-level shear. Maybe someone with a little more experience than me can explain it better, but that is the way I have some to understand it. If I am wrong, someone slap me and educate me. :)
89. oriondarkwood
12:58 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
weatherguy03,

Thanks I got lucky with predicting Dennis and Emily. Because I was reading the models wrong (that and I am finding out more data to shift throught which may be clouding instinctal judgement).
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
88. weatherguy03
12:38 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Hey orion. Yes you are correct in that assessment. The conditions have turned hostile because an unusually strong trough for this time of year has moved down into the atlantic, Steve eluded to this in his blog. This is what has torn apart TD 10. If this pattern continues anything that moves off of Africa and tries to develop would run into this trough and be ripped apart. Will this continue? Climatology tells us no, especially with the peak of the hurricane season ahead of us.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
87. oriondarkwood
12:27 PM GMT on August 15, 2005
Question for the good Dr and the fellow blogee's. Am I correct in assume low level winds affect steering and high level winds affect shearing of a tropical system correct? I am trying to fiqure out the models since I looked at them and was about to post my first prediction on TD10 before it was ripped apart. Lastly any ideas on to why the conditions for tropical storms that seemed ripe for many powerful storms has turned so hostile (other than the dust)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
86. fireweed
9:02 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
A question: How if at all will Irene affect the weather situation i Western Europe now that she is headed our way. As I understand we can get the remnants of hurricanes coasting along the Gulf Stream and then going into our weather system and they can be mean by our standards. Will we see the first late summer storm of tropical origin now?
85. Hawkeyewx
3:53 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
StSimons, most models are shooting this disturbance northwestward into the weakness before the Bermuda high can full rebuild, but that isn't a certainty yet. IF this thing can maintain the closed circulation for a couple more days and IF it can track a little more south and west then it could get stuck south of a building ridge which could then turn it west toward the US coast. Those are a couple of big ifs, though. It is just something that needs to be watched like everything else.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1923
83. Hawkeyewx
3:09 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
Anyone else notice that the 18z GFDL makes TD10 a 963 mb hurricane in five days following Irene's basic track? It is strange how the GFDL continually tried to dissipate Irene and never predicted it would be 989 mb, yet the same model takes a feeble little swirl that was TD10, keeps it alive through a couple days of hostile conditions, then bombs it to a cat 3.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1923
82. Leia
3:06 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
Thanks again, MaryEsther. Will do.

Member Since: November 27, 2004 Posts: 116 Comments: 381
81. Hawkeyewx
2:42 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
One major difference between TD10 and Irene is that Irene already had a large, well defined circulation as it began encountering hostile conditions. The circulation from TD10 is very small and very weak.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1923
80. mobile
2:19 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
What happened to talking about weather here?
79. Raysfan70
2:00 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
thanks,going out for the night everyone have a good evening.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
78. Raysfan70
1:59 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
just could not tell if it was near the center or if it was away. Still trying to fight like Irene I guess.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
77. CosmicEvents
1:57 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
I'm a rookie too Ray......but it appears that there is some small flaring up around the center of TD10, with the main thunderstorms still displaced to the South and East. The center is still in a very hostile environment.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5557
76. MaryEstherFLA
1:50 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
try Steve Gregory's blog for July 31...
Member Since: August 4, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 1190
75. MaryEstherFLA
1:46 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
lol...
Leia, maybe it was the water vapor loop?
Member Since: August 4, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 1190
74. Raysfan70
1:46 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
or forming near the circulation?
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
73. Raysfan70
1:45 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
is there convection trying to wrap around old td#10 or is the circulation still off to the west of it? Looks like it to me, but I am a rookie.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
72. EvanKisseloff
1:43 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
That I don't want. Tornadoes scare the crap out of me.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 197
71. CosmicEvents
1:40 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
Evan...it's doubtful. But it is possible. You can still hold out hope that it will regenerate and make a beeline for Daytona Beach. Barring that, remember you live in Florida in the summer. Any day can possibly bring a thunderstorm with a tornado that can wreak havoc, destruction, and death.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5557
70. Leia
1:38 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
Thanks Maryesther. That looks like one of them. There was a black and white one that showed it near the Gulf of Mexico too, if I remember correctly.

(dust shows in the aerosol imageries?)
Member Since: November 27, 2004 Posts: 116 Comments: 381
69. EvanKisseloff
1:28 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
Could TD 10 Regenerate by Wednesday?
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 197
68. Jedkins
1:22 AM GMT on August 15, 2005
No not todays storm though there was MORE severe weather in my county reported by a trained skywar spotter though lol.

Viewing: 118 - 68

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
74 °F
Overcast