Thingamabobbercane forms off the coast of Oregon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on November 02, 2006

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An unusual storm with the satellite appearance of a hurricane formed 900 miles off the coast of Oregon yesterday. The storm is a hybrid between a warm-cored tropical cyclone, cold-cored extratropical cyclone, and an uncommon type of winter storm called a Polar Low. Since we're not really sure how to classify this odd beast, I'll call it "Thingamabobbercane". Thingamabobbercane is being called 91C at the Navy web site.


Figure 1. Thingamabobbercane forms 900 miles west of the Oregon coast, November 1, 2006.

Thingamabobbercane formed from a cold-cored extratropical storm that spent two days drifting over relatively warm waters of about 59-61F (15-16C). These temperatures were warm enough to warm the core of the storm and generate a cloud-free "eye" and an "eyewall" of intense thunderstorms surrounding the eye. The spiral bands of showers and eye/eyewall appearance look very similar to Hurricane Epsilon of 2005, which formed over waters of 75-77 F (22-23C). If Thingamabobbercane had been in the Atlantic, it would likely have been given a name and called a subtropical cyclone. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu isn't even mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook, so Thingamabobbercane is not going to get a name. Hybrid storms of this nature are rare in the Central Pacific, and we really don't know what to do with them. It's worth noting that SSTs in the northeast Pacific are a substantial 2 C above normal; normally ocean temperatures are too cold to get hybrid subtropical storms off the coast of Oregon.

A QuikSCAT satellite pass from last night (Figure 2) shows wind speeds as high as 50 knots (57 mph) to the south of the circulation center of Thingamabobbercane. Cloud top temperatures in the "eyewall" were between -42 and -53 C, which correspond to heights of 35,000 to 40,000 feet. Satellite imagery from this morning shows that Thingamabobbercane has weakened, and resembles a donut with the bottom half missing. Wind shear, which was 15 knots yesterday, has increased to 25 knots over the storm, and is likely responsible for the weakening. Thingamabobbercane is expected to gradually weaken as it drifts northeastward over the next two days. The storm will make the transition to a regular extratropical cyclone by Saturday, and affect British Columbia with gale-force winds early next week.


Figure 2. QuikSCAT winds from 04 UTC November 2, 2006, show wind speeds as high as 50 knots (57 mph) to the south of the circulation center of Thingamabobbercane.

Thingamabobbercane is over much cooler waters than some of the late-season tropical storms of 2005--such as Vince and Epsilon--that looked similar. A drifting buoy 46637 100 miles to the north of the center is reporting SSTs of 58F (14.5C), and drifting buoy 46532 about 150 miles to the west is reporting SSTs of 62F (16.5C). Thingamabobbercane resembles the January 1995 weirdo storm that formed in the Mediterranean Sea. This unusual storm also looked like a hurricane, and formed over waters of similar temperature, 61F. Another odd hybrid storm like Thingamabobbercane formed over Lake Huron on September 14, 1996. Hurricane Huron started as a cold-cored low pressure system, then gradually acquired a warm core as it drifted over the relatively warm waters (64F, 18C) of Lake Huron. Hurricane Huron developed a cloud-free eye and spiral bands of showers and thunderstorms which brought up to four inches of rain and flooding problems to portions of Ontario and Michigan. It is the only recorded warm-core hybrid cyclone to affect the Great Lakes.


Figure 3. "Hurricane Huron" over Lake Huron closely resembles our Thingamabobbercane. Image credit: Dr. Todd Miner, Penn State University. Dr. Miner has authored an interesting techincal paper on Hurricane Huron.

For more on Thingamabobbercane
The University of Wisconsin CIMSS web site has an interesting blog with both visible and infrared Quicktime animations of the storm.

The Atlantic
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is associated with a tropical disturbance (93L). This disturbance has gotten less organized since yesterday, and is not expected to become a tropical depression. It will continue to bring heavy rains to Belize, the Yucatan, and Honduras over the next two days. More than two inches of rain has fallen in Cancun, Cozumel, and Belize City in the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for 93L in the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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318. Skyepony (Mod)
1:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
03/1145 UTC 16.7N 88.0W T1.5/1.5 93L
03/0545 UTC 16.7N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L
02/2345 UTC 16.8N 87.6W T1.0/1.5 93L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
317. Patrap
1:34 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
hopefully the latest cold front will help kill these things off here...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
316. thelmores
1:09 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
agreed k-man...... 93L looks on the coast now......

hope everybody has a good weekend! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
315. Patrap
1:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
Lake effect snow plumes..N Michigan...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
314. Patrap
1:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
Trouble comes to the Gulf Coast,late next week.Will have to keep close eyes on this situ late next week..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
313. kmanislander
12:43 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
good morning all

93L has moved to the SSW overnight and is now practically ashore in S Belize. Any furhter drift to the W will take it inland
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
311. mellotrongirl
10:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Thingamabobercane has looked quite impressive for a couple days now on Portland TV satellite images during wether segments on the news...it's kicking in some mild temps. and plenty of precip underneath as the "pineapple express" streams in from the SW. Nice warm temps after a string of sunny cold days although the winds have kicked up a lot of leaves (after I just raked them up) and the rains have become moderate.
Member Since: December 7, 2005 Posts: 48 Comments: 35
310. stormy3
7:01 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Hurricane23 if your on here they do list a way to download this storm to your google earth site.
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
309. stormy3
6:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
NASA's Earth Observatory has a report on 91C. They agree that it is outside the norman hurricane areas and therefore unable to name. They do go on to try and explain how this "subtropical" storm forms.
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
308. LowerCal
6:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Garden grew, garden ready, sounds good.

And the LBAR still likes you. :)

I may not be back 'til much later. If I don't see you good night Skye.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
307. Skyepony (Mod)
6:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Most the 00Z runs are out, still looks on.

Somehow I had missed the 18Z gfdl run on 93L earlier.

off to zzzzz
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
306. Skyepony (Mod)
6:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Wind hasn't arrived yet, got the garden ready today. Thing grew good with the rain.

I did go back & look at the 18Z gfs, see it has come into line with most the others.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
305. LowerCal
5:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Thanks Skye. Hope the wind isn't rattling your house to hard.

Have you looked at any models re. the East Pac this evening?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
304. LowerCal
5:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Never mind. :[ Just moving south. Not "DRIFTING WEST"?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
303. Skyepony (Mod)
5:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Same storm, different passes. That was the 1st time in more than a day that it wasn't too weak to get a T#.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
302. LowerCal
5:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Posted By: Skyepony at 7:31 PM PST on November 02, 2006.
02/2345 UTC 16.8N 87.6W T1.0/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
02/1745 UTC 17.1N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean


Twins again?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
301. CybrTeddy
5:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
hmm T.1 now on 93L
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
300. Skyepony (Mod)
5:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
It will be interesting to see the next pass on the storm position & intensity page, should be around 5:45am gmt.

Cimaron just had a pass & is fading fast.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
299. CybrTeddy
5:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
hmm looks like 93L is now movin NE
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
298. Skyepony (Mod)
5:13 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
steering currents.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
296. CybrTeddy
4:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
omg 93L is spinning and is closed with impressive thunderstorms i say we have TD-10
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
294. CybrTeddy
4:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Am i the only one who notcies that 93L is almost a TD
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
293. Skyepony (Mod)
4:46 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Welcome Rodek! I think it's a little early to say what we could expect for next year.

But I'm beginning to expect when people get up in the morning they'll be suprised with how well 93L will be looking.

At night when the upper layers cool it helps condensate the rising heat from the ocean. 93L is in it's building time for the day & has got a good start.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
292. CybrTeddy
4:45 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Can we expect the 2007 season to be as quiet as the 2006 season in the Gulf or was '06 a fluke?

actualy the El Nino will peak soon and will go down sooo 07 in the gulf will be sorta like 03
(I predict the whole season like 03 or 04)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
290. Rodek
4:35 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Can we expect the 2007 season to be as quiet as the 2006 season in the Gulf or was '06 a fluke?
286. Rodek
4:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Hello all! My first post from Ft Walton Beach, FL. I enjoy reading everyone's posts and learning everything I can about weather.
285. palmettobug53
4:07 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
LOL, Dr. M! Thingamabobbercane?! Love the name!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 238 Comments: 25333
284. Skyepony (Mod)
3:59 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
There's a ship within 101nm of 93L.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
283. Skyepony (Mod)
3:50 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
update on EH2R, the dude that compares sunsets to make some pretty amazing predictions.

Unprecedented expansions measured

Unreal as it seemed, fall 2005 expansions were throunced today, it would have been impossible to distinguish a Montreal summer shot with today's captures. Surreal warming throughout the Arctic having surface temperatures 10 to 15 degrees C above average, not for a day but for more than a week has amazed all who live here. Clouds dominated of course, no observations were done until today, half a dozen observations have showed huge expansions, easily beating ever so impressive 2005. The running average temperature of the last ten late october days in Resolute has about equalled the average temperature for last September. This heat event was captured more than 2 weeks ago. It was at first a huge Low cyclone coming from the Pacific, but this Low did not last as long as the heat. Our Arctic's quite unusual warming can't be explained by any other way, the atmosphere as a whole is warmer, mainly from: more open ice free sea water , advection from the Pacific and Atlantic, a huge cloud coverage, and finally from a warmer atmosphere to start with. The Upper Air is thus, despite the ever descending sun, a source of heat radiation synergized with the sea. This makes it very nearly certain that the coming winter will be like autumn for most North American locations, Russia/Eastern Europe is the big question, but ENSO dynamics reconfigure meso scale circulations. There you have it; winter seasonal projection is nearly done, I am still mulling over at possible scenarios for Russia. Look for a complete projection at the onset of the long night on November 6.

WD October 25 2006
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
282. Skyepony (Mod)
3:37 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Got a cloudsat on 93L today too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
280. Skyepony (Mod)
3:33 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
279. Ldog74
3:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
[looks up palletable]
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
278. Skyepony (Mod)
3:31 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
02/2345 UTC 16.8N 87.6W T1.0/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
02/1745 UTC 17.1N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39093
276. Ldog74
3:24 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Oh well thats real reassuring Inyo. I'll sleep much better tonight knowing we didn't kill all the sea life, just the stuff that we can eat.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
275. Inyo
3:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
people, 'all sea life' is NOT going to die in 50 years. The world's fisheries will collapse, which will be a horrible disaster, but there will be plenty of sea life, just nothing we can eat.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 877
274. Patrap
3:07 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Katrina PowerLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
273. 1900hurricane
3:03 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Well, see y'all later. If you still want to get a hold of me, either mail me or post on my blog. The second is more preferable.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
272. 1900hurricane
3:02 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Hello?

[word echos]
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
271. 1900hurricane
3:00 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Never mind. That is the same link that Dr. Jeff posted in his blog, along with a visible one.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
270. 1900hurricane
2:57 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Check this out!

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
269. 1900hurricane
2:56 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
No problem.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
268. michaelwmoss
2:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
1900 Hurricane Thank you very much for that informative article! NICE!!

This definately leads crendance to this being a warm cored type system!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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