Western Caribbean disturbance generating heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on November 01, 2006

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An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is associated with a tropical disturbance (93L). This disturbance has not gotten better organized over the past day, but has some potential for development over the next two days. The system does not have a well-defined surface circulation, but there is a sharp shift in wind direction along a line running from the western tip of Cuba down to the coast of Honduras, roughly along 85W longitude. QuikSCAT satellite-measured winds from 6:33pm EST last night were in the 20-30 mph range. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 93L, and we will have to wait until about 8:30pm EST tonight for the next pass to arrive. 93L will be near buoy 42056 at 20N 85W today. Winds at the buoy have been less than 15 mph the past two days. Wind shear increases from about 5 knots near the coast of Honduras to about 30 knots near Cuba. It is possible a well-defined surface circulation could develop along this wind shift line over the next day or two, but it is unlikely we'll see a tropical depression form. If a depression were to form, it would most likely affect Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan, since wind shear is too high to the north. The disturbance should bring heavy rains to Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday through Friday. At this time, it does not appear that 93L will affect South Florida, although moisture from the surface trough of low pressure 93L is embedded in will increase the chance of rain through Friday. Wind shear is expected to stay above 40 knots over the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Bahamas over the next seven days, which will protect those regions from any tropical storms.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for the Western Caribbean disturbance.

Typhoon Cimaron
Typhoon Cimaron has re-intensified to a major Category 3 storm, but its days of glory are numbered. The same trough of low pressure that is currently acting to steer the storm northwards towards Hong Kong is also expected to bring high wind shear over the storm beginning Thursday, and there is a good chance that Cimaron will get torn apart before it reaches China. Cimaron killed 19 people in the Philippines when it hit the mountainous northern portion of Luzon Island on Sunday. The storm injured 58 others, left 15 people missing, and damaged more than 5,000 homes.


Figure 2. Rainfall estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite for Typhoon Cimaron yesterday.

Jeff Masters

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563. MTJax
3:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
Stick with CLP5 early. NW, then N, use GFS ensemble for the later days with this moving NE to E
562. ProgressivePulse
2:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
GFDL had the track, and said sit and spin itself out at that time so that is what I tend think also. GFDL has performed remarkably this year.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
561. kmanislander
2:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
thelmores
Veracruz Mexico has W winds.
Are you saying that is an indicator that the front is on the way E towards 93L ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15778
560. kmanislander
2:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
Corozal in extreme N Belize has NNE winds. Every where else in Belize says " calm " with a pressure of 29.85 and falling
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15778
559. kmanislander
2:34 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
thelmores

where are those two cities ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15778
558. thelmores
2:29 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
it does look stationary atm.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
557. thelmores
2:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
veracruz has west winds, and Coatzacoalcos has north winds at the surface......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
556. kmanislander
2:27 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
good morning all

looks like 93L is just sitting and spinning. This is the time of yr when a system in that area can come up to the ENE or NE and there is a front making its way in that direction.
The direction of the upper level cloud flow is often a good indicator of the direction of steering winds once a system starts to move. This one will likely do one of 3 things, go ashore near to its current location, move off to the NE or ENE or simply sit and spin itself out.
Anything I missed ? LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15778
555. thelmores
2:18 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
mornin everybody! :)






is it over yet????
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
554. stormy3
2:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
For anyone who is interested, The NASA's Earth Observatory put out a great articule called "Hurricane's: The Greatest Storms on Earth" Nov 1, 2006 by Steve Graham and Holli Riebeek.
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
553. stormy3
1:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
East side of Tampa
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
552. DocBen
1:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
Anyone have a good pic of 91C - particularly anything showing location and direction?
Member Since: May 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
550. ProgressivePulse
1:46 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
Break out the umbrella's. How about that GFDL for accuracy.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
549. stormy3
1:40 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
Just kidding, know you need the rain as bad as we do. But the drive home this morning was hair raising.
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
548. stormy3
1:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
Randrewl, that's not fair, you get rain and I get fog so bad they have warnings out!
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
543. ricderr
1:10 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
oops...that didn't look right...looks funny..but not right..LOL
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21438
540. ricderr
1:06 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
LATEST WAVE WATCH SUGGESTS SEAS MAY EXCEED 12-14 FTFRI-SAT

is this on our lovely shores?....cus if so....there's gonna be an old man out on jensen bech this weekend..come on..grab your baggies and your boards..now..if i just had a woody
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21438
534. Vanagew
10:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
That storm is currently not strong enough to be labelled a "Kyrant".

Kyrants are winter storms that resemble Hurricanes. They can survive in places where Hurricanes cannot because they use the immediate environment for fuelling. What you are looking at isn't a "hypercane", it is a Polar Storm almost at Kyrant strength. The March 93 Superstorm was a Kyrant. Kyrants follow a category system very similar to the Hurricane Saffir-simpson scale. In Oceania (New Zealand and Australia) Kyrants and Polar storms are named in the ABC order (exactly the same way as Pacific and Atlantic Hurricanes are named). Kyrants however generally don't become as powerful as Hurricanes and it very rare that a Kyrant will reach Category 4 or even 5.
533. LowerCal
5:53 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Fascinating and enlightening as always Michael. Thank you.

Fortunately Cimaron isn't hitting that maximum potential intensity now.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
531. LowerCal
5:23 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
That 130 m/s converts to about 290 mph!

...in other words, they analyzed it as being warm-core.
MargieKieper did some blogs on the NHC's apparent hesitancy about calling a system subtropical.
Apparently this is an example.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
529. Wishcasterboy
5:16 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
GTG
527. LowerCal
5:13 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Thanks Michael. I always wondered why they included the "C", lol.

And of course that second part makes sense ... it just needs to be "colder enough" aloft.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
526. reeldrlaura
5:12 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
It's midnight......I'm about to turn into a pumpkin.....again! Nice being back in the US and even nicer being back on the blog. Thanks for the chat y'all.....I'll catch up with you again tomorrow and see what's up then. G'nite all....sweet dreams.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
525. CybrTeddy
5:11 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
the perfact storm happended 15 years ago
yesterday!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23637
523. reeldrlaura
5:09 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Cybr....a perfect storm??
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
522. CybrTeddy
5:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
This storm also comes in mind
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23637
521. LowerCal
5:08 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Of course Mike ... it's just one of those "entertaining" model runs.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
520. reeldrlaura
5:07 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
I am a PhD.....anthropology. I teach yoga classes to cancer patients here in Jacksonville and we're doing a test program with Fred-Hutch next year.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
518. CybrTeddy
5:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Hurricane Rosa 91C should be!
it has 990 mb!! Thats the lowest ive ever seen
for a Invest idk what the NHC thats obviouslt a Hurricane Rosa!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23637
517. reeldrlaura
5:05 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
STL large piles of everyting are STILL a common sight in New Orleans! Pretty sad state of affairs there still. Depressing really. Glad to be out of there.

Wish, baby...down here when you get that highway hypnosis, you're supposed to pull over and throw a line in the water!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
516. Wishcasterboy
5:04 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Are you a doctor?
515. reeldrlaura
5:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Wishcaster - I was out in May for a visit...the weather was fabulous. I make it out there a couple of times a year. Will actually be back again in December and again next may. Will spend a couple of months there next summer working with patients at Fred-Hutch cancer center in Seattle.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
514. Wishcasterboy
5:03 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Exratropical cyclone, that's all it is.
513. Wishcasterboy
5:01 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
I can't drive on those straight flat roads without getting Highway Hypnosis!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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