Western Caribbean disturbance aims to soak the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:53 PM GMT on October 31, 2006

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Unsettled weather continues in the Western Caribbean in association with a tropical disturbance (93L) that has developed a weak surface circulation this afternoon. The circulation center of 93L was at 20N 83W at 3pm EST this afternoon, moving west-northwest at about 15 mph. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear. This shear is expected to increase to 30 knots on Wednesday, so I am not expecting 93L to develop into a tropical depression. The disturbance should bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. At this time, it does not appear that 93L will affect South Florida, although moisture from the surface trough of low pressure 93L is embedded in will increase the chance of rain by Wednesday night. QuikSCAT satellite-measured winds were in the 20-30 mph range southwest of Jamaica at 6:03am EST this morning. 93L will pass over buoy 42056 at 20N 85W tonight. Winds at the buoy this afternoon have been less than 15 mph.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the Western Caribbean disturbance.

In the Pacific, Typhoon Cimaron has made an abrupt course change, and is now on track to strike China near Hong Kong on Friday as a tropical storm.

Jeff Masters

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275. CybrTeddy
3:49 PM GMT on December 26, 2011
Looks like this well above average weather is finally at its end in Florida, at least for the short term. Forecast saying temperatures could dip in the mid to maybe even low 40s in my area from the upcoming cold front. Certainly nice, but my Christmas was rather ruined by walking outside and thinking it was late September.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
274. GaTechNukE
2:52 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
I gotcha, I was down there last weekend actually on my way to Grand Isle for some redfishing. I flew in for a long weekend, cause unlike Sky, I dont know how to be "vacationed out" :-) Caught our limit too.
273. MichaelSTL
2:49 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Link
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
272. Patrap
2:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Im right Next to PArish line ,Kenner now.West
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
271. GaTechNukE
2:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
I think for every 5 times it freezes on the NShore, it freezes once in N.O.
270. MichaelSTL
2:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
New blog up
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
269. Patrap
2:45 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Gatechnuke..parts of nshore got pounded.Bad
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
268. Patrap
2:44 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Nice to c ya, Colds coming back to the N shore..Was inviting Skyepony...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
267. GaTechNukE
2:42 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Pat- I'm from the Northshore
266. sandcrab39565
2:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Well better get back at will check back later
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
265. Skyepony (Mod)
2:41 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
I'm vacationed out right now Pat, maybe one day.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
264. sandcrab39565
2:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
I may can slip ya in Pat.lol
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
263. Skyepony (Mod)
2:40 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page.

93L has weakend as Cimaron is strengthening
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
262. Patrap
2:39 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Im 6 minutes from the Airport.We send boy round to pick ya up.LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
261. Patrap
2:37 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Dont stay with Family..We have oodles of Places to stash people.From Uptown to Bay St.Louis.You can get a lifetimes of Pics in a Day or Two.Jump on a Plane one day..Stay two..Fly back.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
260. Patrap
2:36 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Did work for Dragos in 02 in Metarie.But miss the lunch Counter at Woolworths on Canal & Rampart where Mom worked the most when that closed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
259. Skyepony (Mod)
2:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Excellent sandcrab, I expect an extensive daily update in your blog, with the highlights here..lol. You bring us some pretty sweet info that is only privey to those of your status..Thanks:)

Patrap~ Perhaps next time I'm out that way...which isn't gonna be til someone in the family out there get married, dies or needs some major help.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
258. GaTechNukE
2:33 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
skip bourbon street, hit frenchman street. Eat at Maspero's, Drago's, Cafe du Monde, and The Bon-Ton. You're a N.O. native already :-)
257. Patrap
2:33 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
All with the diet and that er..procedure last week..So im feeling MUCH better.Like 100% better.Ready to get back at it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
256. Patrap
2:31 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
I have VA appt tommorrow..My Chlosterol is down from 302 to 241,..and Im 10 lbs lighter
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
255. Patrap
2:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Maybe I could get a Honorary Jackson County special advisor for a day, pass..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
254. sandcrab39565
2:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Sounds good Pat get a good po-boy and cold beverage.lol
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
253. Patrap
2:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Skyepony needs to come visit and get the tour..Bring the camera.Well do the Ouarter then tour the coastal devastation.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
252. sandcrab39565
2:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Skye, I will be glad to share whatever is discussed with everyone. I am required to attend.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
251. Patrap
2:28 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Thatll work.I know a few..out the way places that most tourist dont know or get to.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
250. Skyepony (Mod)
2:27 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Maybe Dr Masters will go & bring us back the skinny.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
249. Patrap
2:27 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
But I do have a pic of Ol Max MLinkayfield enjoying his retirement..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
248. sandcrab39565
2:26 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
We will hookup and sip a few on the riverwalk.lol
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
247. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
.Thats good news..I dont have a certificate to go Though
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
246. sandcrab39565
2:24 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Pat the national hurricane conference is going to be back in N.O. this coming year.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
245. sandcrab39565
2:22 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Thanks Pat that was a lot more than our local news gave.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
244. Skyepony (Mod)
2:19 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Welcome GATech!~ 15-20kts is usually getting in the unfavorable range, there is ~24-28 over ECFL now, not real favorable. There has been times though where a tropical disturbance forms only at the surface & survives with higher shear aloft...1 theory being the shear above actually helps create divergence up top. But any time it strengthens enough to reach the upper levels, the shear rips it up.

Saddlegait~slashing and dashing each other? Where & what does that mean. I thought we were just tossing out some info & thoughts here. Yea it's small & probobily won't last long or move away, but we need the rain:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
243. Patrap
2:16 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Heres the story ..some nut with a Gun..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
242. Patrap
2:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Shooting On decatur I heard..Thats typical for halloween..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
241. sandcrab39565
2:14 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Pat what happened in the quarter last nite.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
240. Patrap
2:13 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Morning sandcrab
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
239. Patrap
2:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
The 10day GFSx shoLinkws the systems well..and getting kicked NNe..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
238. sandcrab39565
2:12 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Good morning everyone
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
237. Patrap
2:10 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Current wind shear in Southern GOM..up to 90knts..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
236. Skyepony (Mod)
1:56 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Not much for low pressures in the ECFL area except for this one station, which may need calabrated. I got 1015.8↓
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
235. GaTechNukE
1:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Hey guys, I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a few years now, but never actually signed up to post. So... saying hi. I'm pretty new to all of this, so sorry if I don't follow very well. Can someone tell me please what qualifies as a strong enough wind sheer to cripple a storm like this one?
234. saddlegait
1:53 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Where is wtherobsrvr - he needs to be here. It's just a blog right now and people are already slashing and dashing each other.

233. leftovers
1:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
The central Fl. thing brought us welcome rains. Very little wind doubt if the little surface spin will last much longer.
232. Patrap
1:48 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Highest tops in the swirlie ..only 20k..but much needed rain for some...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
231. Skyepony (Mod)
1:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Yes moving west... The WRF didn't see this coming, here it is set on high res surface winds forecasted for the next 24hrs.

This has got to be mostly at the surface since there is mad shear over us. Like one of those freak ones we saw last year that as long as it lived at the surface & didn't strengthen much could survive under the high shear.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
230. PensacolaDoug
1:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
One mo thing....It does appear to be moving.............................................................................................. ..................................Im scared to say it...................................................................................Westish?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
229. PensacolaDoug
1:34 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
It looks tropical on radar but prolly nothin to get in a twist over.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
228. Skyepony (Mod)
1:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Cimaron is strengthening...933mb & 110kts.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
227. Skyepony (Mod)
1:26 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
I've been watching that ECFL blob since lastnight, very interesting, especially since lastnight it was an open circulation just starting to form just off coast from me & now it's pulling it's act together over land...there's updates in my blog. I've gotten 2.69" of rain so far from it. Here's the local ~
315 AM EST WED NOV 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...CONVERGENT BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF NEAR
THE EAST COAST STILL PUSHING ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. MLB
NWS OFFICE HAS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENCE OF SFC TROF COUPLED WITH SOME INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR
THE EAST COAST BUT ACTIVITY WILL REACH WELL THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
00Z NAM INDICATING A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER WEST HALF OF
PENINSULA...MAINLY AFFECTING LAKE CO IF IT OCCURS AS DEPICTED. MAX
TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...BUT AREAS W/O
SIGNIFICANT HINDRANCE FROM THIS SHOULD REACH MID 80S INTERIOR AND
LOWER 80S COAST. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH BEST
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK CLOSER TO EAST COAST.

THU...TROPICAL MOISTURE (MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS) WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL KEEP THE 1000-850 MB LAYER QUITE MOIST...AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE JET POSITION ALONG WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FASTER TIMING OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONFINE THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST...POSSIBLY STRETCHING AS FAR NORTHWARD
AS THE SPACE COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE IN THE DAY...SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE.

Can't wait for the morning forecast as this was written befor the COC formed west of me.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
226. Patrap
1:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Tops to 20K..but its well defined at the surface & mid-levels..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
225. Patrap
1:19 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Thats a very interesting feature 400 x 600
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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