Damage in the Philippines from Typhoon Cimaron not as severe as expected; quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2006

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Typhoon Cimaron is slowly intensifying over the South China Sea as it heads towards an expected landfall Friday in China. Cimaron made landfall on the northern Philippine island of Luzon Sunday as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 15, left 2500 homeless, and destroyed about 8% of the island's rice and corn crop. However, disaster officials called the destruction wrought by Cimaron as "minimal" compared to the destruction of devastating Typhoon Xangsane, which hit Luzon on September 27 as a Category 4 storm. Xangsane killed 218 in the Philippines, did over $100 million in damage, and left tens of thousands homeless. Xangsane went on to deliver a serious blow to Vietnam as a Category 2 typhoon, killing 70. Cimaron is expected to weaken due to wind shear and entrainment of dry air off the coast of China as it approaches land later this week.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Cimaron at 0540 GMT Oct 29 2006, in an image taken by the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite's precipitation radar instrument. This instrument is able to see details as small as 6km across, and was the only microwave sensor that saw these incredibly tightly packed concentric eyewalls separated by only a few kilometers. Cimaron had one of the most remarkable intensification spurts on record--it went from a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a Category 5 storm with 160-180 mph winds in just 48 hours. The pressure dropped an estimated 118 mb in that time period! Like Hurricane Wilma of 2005, Cimaron had a very tight inner core with a small eye, which is typical of storms that perform freakish feats of rapid intensification.

The Atlantic
Unsettled weather continues in the Western Caribbean, and we will have to keep an eye on this region for tropical development. QuikSCAT satellite-measured winds were in the 20-30 mph range southwest of Jamaica at 6:03am EST this morning, but there was no evidence of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a low 10 knots over the region, and is expected to remain low over the next several days. No computer models are calling for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this week, and I am not expecting anything to form in the Atlantic the rest of the year.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the Western Caribbean disturbance.

Hawaii
The weak tropical disturbance near 10N 175W, about 1500 miles southwest of Hawaii, has dissipated and is no longer a threat.

Jeff Masters

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137. Cancunguy
10:20 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Thanks again MTJax!!
136. MTJax
10:10 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
His images are wunderground generated.

The RANDREW image above can be found at this location
135. Cancunguy
10:03 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Thank you very much MTJax, that helps a lot. I hadnīt seen that model forecast chart before. I had only seen the invest model forecasts Dr. M regularly posts on his blogs. Wonder where those come from.
134. MTJax
9:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
try this one link

So do the experts here rely on the deep layer or shallow layer for guidance? They are 180 degrees out with the medium looping
133. Cancunguy
9:51 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Can anyone tell me where I can find a model prediction chart for 93L?
132. MTJax
9:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Hey BAMM loops it. Sound familiar? I believe every storm with loops this year seemed to die.
130. MTJax
9:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Guess that answers the questions. Skye did it
129. Skyepony (Mod)
9:21 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Well I said I thought any chance for a tropical storm to landfall in the US was very, very slim, like take that sigh~ this morning~ flaunting shear maps & all. I've obviously angered the 'cane gods cause I got the LBARS running over my house this afternoon.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39375
128. Drakoen
8:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Is there a low pressure near the convection or associated with it?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
126. Drakoen
8:53 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
THE gfs is predicting soemthing pretty serious crossing FL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
124. Patrap
8:51 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Wife just came back from getting a cortisone injection in her Shoulder..and I best tend to her..NOW!..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
123. Patrap
8:50 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Man Rand ..LOL..i spent 2 hours breaking down my Firewall..and a good wuba member told me just to log out and get a costume..I feeling rather..Duh!..da Duh!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
121. Patrap
8:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Now..Ive got a Costume to stretch into...LOL..and a Pumpkinn to Carve?, mutilate...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
119. Patrap
8:47 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
When watching a possible Trend..best to observe the Thingee..and not the Models..and if ya going to drive with them..youll need the Keys..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
117. Patrap
8:46 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Heres the GFSx showing the Carr Thingee racing NNE..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
114. Drakoen
8:45 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
I still think the uppper level winds are unfavorable for development. If anything tries to go into the GOM in will get destroyed if it goes too south in the Caribean it will get torn apart as well.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
113. Patrap
8:45 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Man..Im dizzy LOL..Whats the buzz?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
107. kmanislander
8:40 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Drakoen

link to buoys
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
105. Drakoen
8:38 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
can i get some model forecast on the wave in the Caribean and some buoy information.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
104. kmanislander
8:37 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
1009 mb S of Jamaica so the whole area has relatively low pressures, d low shear and still lots of warm water
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
103. kmanislander
8:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
actually I think that there is probably more chance of a threat coming out of what is going on down near 14N 80W than from 93L.
Once 93L slides to the NW that may open the door for the Southern Caribbean to spin up something.
93L ran out out of sea room once it passed Haiti
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
102. MTJax
8:32 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Seems MTJax said something last week about a west coast FL tropical storm on Nov 6???
101. 882MB
8:32 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
HEY DRAKOEN HOW U DOIN IM LEAVIN ALREADY. I HAVE SOME FUN STUFF TO DO TODAY HALLOWEEN. WELL 93L SURE IS LOOKING GOOD A LITTLE SHEAR BUT IT COULD STILL DEVELOP BYE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 433
100. Wishcasterboy
8:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Maybe
99. Drakoen
8:30 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
hello guys i am back whats up?
I see 93L could develop into something and come in S. Florida.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
97. Wishcasterboy
8:20 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
To thoughs who have not seen my updated blog yet. Come one come all!
96. cbbeachbum
8:16 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Still seems pretty cold crab - I don't see it here Link
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 1386
95. Tazmanian
8:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
i am haveung a Halloween party 2 night on my blog as well evere one is welcome to join if they want to
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
94. sandcrab39565
8:09 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Ok all have a good day as bad as I dont want to I must get back to working on the updates to the CEMP
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
93. ProgressivePulse
8:08 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
93L has that dual circulation thing going on again, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
91. sandcrab39565
8:02 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Saddle, Panama City is a lot closer to the continental shelf than here we have a lot more shallow water which heats and cools faster than the deeper areas.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
90. sandcrab39565
7:59 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
59 at the harbor (according to Garmin) I was in the boat in the bay this am counting pileings to be removed from old hwy 90 bridge.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
87. sandcrab39565
7:56 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
North gulf waters in the 50s be very hard pressed to allow anything.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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