Philippines count the dead after Typhoon Cimaron

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on October 30, 2006

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Super Typhoon Cimaron made landfall on the northern Philippine island of Luzon this weekend as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 160 mph. Cimaron could have been even stronger--NOAA's satellite team estimated Cimaron had 180 mph sustained winds with a pressure of 879 mb, but the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group put Cimaron's peak intensity at 160 mph, with a central pressure of 903 mb. Cimaron had one of the most remarkable intensification spurts on record--it went from a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a Category 5 storm with 160-180 mph winds in just 48 hours. The pressure dropped an estimated 118 mb in that time period! Like Hurricane Wilma of 2005, Cimaron had a very tight inner core with a small eye, which is typical of storms that perform freakish feats of rapid intensification. Cimaron was the strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines in eight years.


Figure 1.A zoomed-in shot of Cimaron's eye taken by NASA's AQUA satellite shortly before the storm made landfall in the Philippines.

Damage reports are just beginning to come in from the Philippines, and early reports put the death toll at 12 with over 20 injured. Most of the deaths have come from flooding and falling trees. Northern Luzon Island is very mountainous and heavily logged, so flash flooding presents a serious danger. Cimaron moved quickly enough that only about eight inches of rain fell across the island (Figure 2), so I am hopeful that the death toll will not increase much further. The coast is not heavily populated where Cimaron came ashore, so significant death or damage there is not expected. About 5,000 people were evacuated from low-lying areas before Cimaron came ashore.


Figure 2.Rainfall estimates from NOAA for Cimaron.

Cimaron follows on the heels of devastating Typhoon Xangsane which hit Luzon on September 27 as a Category 4 storm. Xangsane killed 218 in the Philippines, did over $100 million in damage, and left thousands homeless. All 43 million residents of Luzon lost power from that typhoon. Xangsane went on to deliver a serious blow to Vietnam as a Category 2 typhoon, killing 70. Cimaron is expected to hit Vietnam Thursday night in the same region Xangsane did. However, Cimaron is expected to be much weaker at this second landfall--perhaps just a tropical storm.


Figure 3.Super Typhoon Cimaron a few hours before landfall in the Philippines. Cimaron may have had sustained winds as high as 180 mph at landfall! Image credit: NOAA.

The Atlantic
The tropical wave (93L) moving through the Caribbean south of Jamaica has grown very disorganized, and development of this system is not expected. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical development in the Atlantic the remainder of this week, but unsettled weather is expected to remain in the western Caribbean.

Hawaii
A weak tropical disturbance near 10N 175W, about 1300 miles southwest of Hawaii, has the potential for some slow development this week as it moves towards Hawaii. Several of the computers models are predicting that this could develop into a weak tropical storm and affect Hawaii by Friday or Saturday. The disturbance is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and had top winds of about 25 mph in last night's QuikSCAT satellite pass.

Jeff Masters

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316. Patrap
2:28 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
New Blog entry posted with 1 sobering pic..and a great ritual to be played out..here ..All Saints day.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
315. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
The 10day GFSx showing the system splitting and racing NNe..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
314. Physicsprofessor
2:19 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
TUESDAY PHYSICS QUESTION OF THE DAY CANCELLED TODAY IN HONOR OF NASH28'S BIRTHDAY. GO TO MY BLOG AND WISH HIM A HAPPY BIRTHDAY...THERE IS ALSO A RIDDLE THERE IF YOU WANT TO SOLVE IT.
HAVE A GREAT DAY ALL!!
313. ProgressivePulse
2:14 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
WILMA
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
312. ProgressivePulse
2:11 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Memories of a disorganized mess in about the same area last year.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
311. ProgressivePulse
2:08 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Good Morning and Happy Halloween All.

Big difference for us south floridians this year, loving it. Hopefully the 2 lows in the carrib cancel themselves out and we can continue with the peacefull holiday season ahead!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
310. Skyepony (Mod)
2:07 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
My thoughts are that the chances of a US landfall are very, very low for the remainder of the season. This is because of the shear pattern has really switched to a winter one over the southeast for the last several weeks now, with shear so high it would destroy any organized storm.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
309. Patrap
2:02 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Morning Skye..up and atum I c....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
308. Patrap
2:01 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Morning Kman..been blog building ..The Docs sure to have an update on the situ..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
307. Skyepony (Mod)
1:52 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Death count from Cimaron is up to 15. Vietnam is begining evacuations.Link
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
306. ripcurl869
1:52 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
I have been watching that low... scared of another Wilma here in SoFlo. Everything has gone right for us this year after the ruination of our realestate economy thanks to the last two years and the "twenty year cycle" predictionbs. Looking forward to Jeff's update on this.
305. kmanislander
1:17 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
off to work
will bb later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
304. kmanislander
1:17 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
wow
my other post took two minutes to show
I thought it had got lost in the ether
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
303. kmanislander
1:16 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Shear is a very low 5 to 10 knots in the NW Caribbean and the low to our S seems to be getting better organised.
We may see 94L before the day is out
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
302. kmanislander
1:13 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Hi Pat,

Don't kmow if you are still around but the low to our S seems to be getting better organised
We may see 94L come out of this before the day is out
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
301. Patrap
12:35 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
The 10day GFSx run.....Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
300. kmanislander
12:10 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
wow

need my coffee

ignore the words " as this screen "
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
299. kmanislander
12:09 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
good morning all

today will be quite interesting as there is a 1008 mb surface low about 100 miles due S of Grand Cayman and another weaker one to the W of that
You can see them depicted on your screen as this screen just before the loop runs
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
298. StoryOfTheCane
7:21 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
297. Wishcasterboy
5:22 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Ok who ever has not yet seen my blog should check it out.
296. Skyepony (Mod)
5:17 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Philippines: NDCC media update - Situational Report No. 2 re effects of Typhoon "Paeng" (Cimaron)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
295. ajcamsmom
4:48 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Hurricane23...Do you think that we are out of the woods yet for this year??? We, meaning me, in Pass Christian, MS...I've just started rebuilding my home and I would like to get to move in it before GOD huffs and puffs and blows it down again.
294. JUSTCOASTING
4:36 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
hey howseveryone doing tonight
Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666
293. hurricane23
4:30 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Good evening once again....

It now appears that Cimaron is once again trying to develope another impressive CDO as it heads in the general direction of vietnam.The forcast intensity has it reaching CAT 4 status once again.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
292. 0741
4:25 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
you got mail kman
290. kmanislander
4:22 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
93L dropped from site, probably permanently.
remnants merging with old front that is now stationary.
Real tropical "soup" with low pressure at the surface N of Honduras and low shear
lets see what shows up overnight
Time to turn in now
C U Tomorrow
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
289. 0741
4:19 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
do you all think 93l coming back? did navy site add it back?
288. kmanislander
4:18 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
yes I am
Grand Cayman, S coast
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
287. kmanislander
4:17 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
0741

here is real time monitoring from our port
great site with web cams etc
Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
286. 0741
4:17 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
you on cayman islands?
285. kmanislander
4:15 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
0741

the rain has started.No wind at all
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
284. kmanislander
4:14 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Physics

silly question but how do I post directly onto your blog ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
283. 0741
4:08 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
how weather on islands of caymans and jamaica? their almost over that area of rain in nw carribbean
282. Physicsprofessor
4:07 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
He does except the beer!
281. kmanislander
4:06 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Physics

thanks
he looks kind of squeaky clean too
LMAO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
279. kmanislander
4:04 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
anyway gnite all
11 pm and its only Mon night
lets see what tomorrow brings
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
277. kmanislander
4:03 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Pat

can't get to your blog now. Server trouble continues but will try in the morning
gnite to you too
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
276. Patrap
4:00 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Sorry to Hear that..no Fun..no sir..no fun at all...Take care..Gnight.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
275. Patrap
3:59 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Click on any pic to see them all...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
274. kmanislander
3:58 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
will do Pat
hope you get your home back soon. I know what its like.
Ivan put me out of mine for 6 months
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
273. LowerCal
3:58 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
That was no fun. "Server is overloaded. Try again later."
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9137
272. Tazmanian
3:57 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
someone sould say some in aron blog
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
271. kmanislander
3:57 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
rain from all that @#$% in the NW Caribbean starting here now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
270. Patrap
3:57 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Yes Kman..u can check it all out on the "My Photos" section on my Blog Page...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
269. Tazmanian
3:56 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
whats going on her
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
268. dhcoop
3:56 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
ok. seems to be working now
267. Patrap
3:56 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
Daily show in 5..Gnight ..Get yer Pumpkins to bed..tommorrows a long Hard Days Night...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
266. Tazmanian
3:55 AM GMT on October 31, 2006
i got the same thing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.