World Series forecast and tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2006

Share this Blog
2
+

Tonight's World Series game in St. Louis between the Tigers and the Cardinals has about a 30% chance of being rained out. A slow-moving low pressure system over the Southern Plains is expected to track across Missouri over the next two days, bring the continued chance of rain to St. Louis through Friday night. The best chance of rain is from 2am Friday through 6pm Friday, when periods of heavy rain are expected. There will be some intermittent areas of light rain and short-lived heavier showers in the area tonight, but I think the rain will not be widespread enough to cause a cancellation of the game. A rain delay of an hour or two is certainly a possibility, though. Game time temperatures should be near 48 degrees, with a light 5 mph wind blowing in from the outfield towards home. Friday's game may suffer a rain delay as well, but will likely get played.

In the Atlantic, a concentrated area of thunderstorms about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. The region is under 20 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain too high to allow development to occur. None of the models are forecasting any significant tropical development over the next six days, and the long-range GFS model forecast no longer calls for a tropical storm to develop in the western Caribbean late next week. In the eastern Pacific, Paul has come ashore in Mexico north of Mazatlan and has dissipated. No damage or flooding problems have been reported from the storm.


The biggest storm so far this hurricane season: the storm of controversy over what was on Kenny Rogers' hand during game two of the World Series! Image of Kenny Rogers courtesy of sportsillustrated.com

I'll be back Friday with a report on a major new hurricane funding initiative introduced to the Senate. With election day fast approaching, I encourage you to ask your Senators how they plan to vote on this important issue!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 500 - 450

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

500. BahaHurican
2:33 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Morning all,

Weather here in Nassau is fantastic. The sun is out, but air temperatures are pretty cool for this time of year (someone yesterday said to me they think it feels like Christmas!) and we have a constant light breeze. I note the high pressure in place that is keeping things lovely. I am assuming that's what's creating the shear to the north of 93L?

Well, I'm going out to enjoy the sunshine while it lasts. Looking at forecasts, it seems quite likely it will last much longer . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21883
498. ProgressivePulse
1:09 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Morning Bob! What would make this one any different! Shear rules!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5209
497. weatherguy03
1:05 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Typical strong tropical wave. Will be one to watch if it gets into the Southern Caribbean, but shear will be a constant factor just to its North.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
496. weatherguy03
1:04 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Nothing at all Pulse. Hey, when the NHC isn't running models on an Invest it isn't going to develop.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
495. nash28
1:04 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
LOL Gator!

I did that yesterday morning for about 20 minutes until someone posted on here:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
494. ProgressivePulse
1:00 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Quickscatt of 93L.

It wasn't fully updated yet! Nothing really to see there!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5209
492. Physicsprofessor
12:59 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
OK I will just answer my own questions today....Gator is it going to rain on the Treasure Coast today?....No Gator, I don't think so, I believe most of the bad weather will be further North and possibly on the West Coast...but there could still be one more tropical blip before the season is over.

Thank you Gator.
489. BrandonC
12:44 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
hello and good morning to everyone...I see that we have 93L to watch and also a severe weather event in florida this afternoon and overnight....Possible toranadoes and high wind event forecasted here where I am....
487. nash28
12:34 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Ok, I was just gonna say the GFDL has not run anything on 93L.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
486. kmanislander
12:29 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
gotta go now but will check in periodically today
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
485. ProgressivePulse
12:26 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Latest scatt missed most of the area for 93L
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5209
484. kmanislander
12:23 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
mrpuertorico

I do not think so with the steering winds as they are now. See my recent post with the winds linked. This one looks like straight W for quite a while and maybe even SW once it enters the Caribbean. Just my opinion
Maybe the model runs will be out when Dr M makes his morning update
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
483. mrpuertorico
12:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
my question is will it turn north and go to puerto rico
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
482. ProgressivePulse
12:15 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Posted By: Randrewl at 6:46 AM GMT on October 27, 2006.

And what is that?




There was a GFS run I looked at a week ago that had something develop in the area between Cuba and the YP.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5209
481. kmanislander
12:13 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
steering winds at all levels say West

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
480. HCW
12:13 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
Nasty tornado outbreak on the gulfcoast right now . Live level 3 radar up with watches and warnings and pretty soon that little car icon you see will be me trying to intercept a twister


Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
479. kmanislander
12:10 PM GMT on October 27, 2006
good morning all

93L definitely seems bound for the Caribbean. I wonder whether this will be another system to go " poof " as it is just within the islands or maybe this is the one to defy the odds for the 06 season ?.
There have been so many that have fired up like this but could not keep it together.Will make for interesting watching over the next 24 to 36 hrs
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
478. stormchasher
11:27 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on October 27, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Windward Islands
is poorly organized. Significant development of this system is not
anticipated.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.
$$
Forecaster Franklin

Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
477. Physicsprofessor
11:23 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Amigo bueno de isla de moring
476. mrpuertorico
11:22 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
the fat lady has larengitise
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
475. Physicsprofessor
11:20 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Nash..is anything happening in the tropics?
474. nash28
11:16 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Morning all. Did we have an invest last night, or am I just tired?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
473. Physicsprofessor
11:07 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Good Morning everyone.
472. WPBHurricane05
10:26 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
And what is that?

that moisture in the Caribbean will move over Florida Saturday, in time for a front, its gonna get wet!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
471. NWAtlanticCyclone
9:39 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
93L looks good, but of even greater concern is a possible damaging wind event over southern New England both Staurday and Sunday with gusts into the possible 60's. High Wind Watch.
470. stormybil
7:33 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
93l is looking tight this am will it be a td today ?
469. Wishcasterboy
7:32 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Posted By: stormy3 at 7:12 AM GMT on October 27, 2006.

Arn't you afraid your teddybear is getting cold?


That was what I was refering to, peace.

Mike
468. CybrTeddy
7:28 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
was that an insult aimed at me Wishcasterboy!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23880
467. Wishcasterboy
7:18 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Don't you think he can be thawed out?


Teddy no!!!!!!
466. Wishcasterboy
7:13 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
What am I doing? (slap my silly self) good moring Friday


Freyja, the god Friday was named after.
465. stormy3
7:12 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Arn't you afraid your teddybear is getting cold?
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
464. Wishcasterboy
7:08 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Stormy3,

I fear your wishcasting.
463. Wishcasterboy
7:07 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
This is ludicrous I should go to bed. Oh protect me gracious Randy!
462. stormy3
7:06 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Is there a slight (very slight) clockwise rotation to that blob NE of cuba?
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
461. StoryOfTheCane
7:01 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
460. StoryOfTheCane
6:59 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
...interesting

459. stormy3
6:58 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
I can't believe everyone's going to bed. It's like you get to the most interesting part of a move and "TO BE CONTINUED" flashes across the screen. Thank God for you Randrewl, I know if those blobs get to me (addicted) and i get out of bed to check things out, I can trust you'll be there to chase the "bloggyman" away.Good Nite!
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
457. BahaHurican
6:50 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
I'm going to sleep, despite the 1932 graphic . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21883
456. Wishcasterboy
6:50 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
This is what I think of that blowup of thunerstorms Link
455. LowerCal
6:48 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Well, I'm glad I don't live in Barbados, Cancun, or Cozumel otherwise I couldn't go to sleep now.

Good night all.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
453. 0741
6:42 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
look at area on west tip of cuba!!!!!!!!
452. LowerCal
6:41 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
Is that Barbados on the left?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9167
450. Wishcasterboy
5:09 AM GMT on October 27, 2006
MAILCALL FOR CRAB AND RANDREWL

Viewing: 500 - 450

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.