So long Irene, hello TD 10

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on August 13, 2005

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Irene
The Hurricane Hunters just paid a visit to Irene, and found a substantially weaker tropical storm. The central pressure was just 1000 mb, and maximum flight-level winds were 40 mph on the west side of the storm. Satellite imagery shows a decrease in deep convection and warming of the cloud tops.

Last night's mission by NOAA's G-IV aircraft gathered a large high-resolution set of data surrounding Irene, and this data was used to initialize this morning's models. These models continue to show that Irene will turn to the north and northeast, missing the U.S. coast by a wide margin. This is a high-confidence forecast, due to the excellent data used to initialize the models and the continuity of the model forecasts from yesterday to today.

TD 10
An impressive low pressure area in the mid-Atlantic near 12N 44W appears to be developing into a tropical depression. Deep convection near the center has increased markedly in the past few hours, spiral banding has increased, and upper-level outflow has improved. Quikscat satellite winds show a circulation center near 12N 44W as of 10:43am EDT, with the strongest winds not contaminated by rain at 20 kt. Rain-contaminated winds as high as 35 kt exist north of the center, suggesting that the low may indeed be a tropical depression. NHC will probably start issuing advisories on TD 10 at 5pm EDT today.



The storm will continue to move to the northwest or west-northwest over the next few days, not posing a threat to any islands until perhaps Wednesday. The GFS model moves the storm northwest, bypassing the Caribbean islands, then tracks it on a more westerly course towards the U.S. late next week. The storm is headed into an area of very dry air to its northwest, which may inhibit its growth and intensification. However, water temperatures are warm (28 - 30C) ahead of it and vertical wind shear is light, so it is likely that it will attain at least tropical storm status. If so, it will be named Jose.

Jeff Masters

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97. weatherboyfsu
5:42 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
Well guys........another hot day in florida.....a severe thunderstorm warning for Pinellas County....storms popping on our west coast.......we have an upperlevel low over south florida which is enhancing the severity of our afternoon storms......the tropics are boring me.....I guess I have been spoiled the past year.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
96. Raysfan70
5:10 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
thank you for answering that question for me.
So if TD#10 would reform the likey hood right now would be for this one to go to the Fish to.

How long is the sheer going to hold up in the Carribean?


Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
95. weatherguy03
4:59 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
yeah i heard that too, but looking at the beginning of this month and next week this is not the case. Will it change, sure it can. Actually the high is still there it just has moved more east and is not as strong to the west. As you remember we had such a strong east to west high in june and july that anything that formed in the tropics went due west.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29705
94. Raysfan70
4:21 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
so most liley the Bermuda will not be parked likes last year? I know that no one really can tell that, but I was reading an article put out a few months ago and they thought it might be like last year?
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
93. weatherguy03
4:17 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
Too early to tell, but as i stated yesterday. The long term synoptic pattern seems to be setting up a general trough over the eastern US. This would tend to curve storms out to sea..ie.Irene. The bermuda high at this point, does not seem to be as strong as in the months of June and July.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29705
92. Raysfan70
4:11 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
how is the trough looking,with it break down the High like with Irene? Or is it to early to tell?
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
91. weatherguy03
4:10 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
High shear values in caribean need to relax if we were to get TD 11 there, just to clarify..sorry.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29705
90. weatherguy03
4:08 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
Just to comment on some of the last few posts. First IMHO I think the reason why Irene never made hurricane was because of the dry air that this system kept sucking in from the south. Also the shear values were never as low as what was forecasted. As far as possible TD 11, swirl over s.florida, upper level low, very highly unlikely. Something may try to come out of carribean later next week...Link right now again this is just in the upper levels currently. And finally FORMER..lol..TD 10. Shear values not good ahead of this system..Link it would be very hard to come back to life, also notice high shear values in carribean with upper low, this would also need to relax.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29705
89. STORMTOP
4:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
as long as it has a circulation it always has a chance of coming back...it may reorganize again once it gets to the caribbean in a few days...
88. Raysfan70
3:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
ANyone think that TD#10 will come back to life?
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
87. DauphinIslandDunes
3:28 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
Could be an interesting week for storms with calm yet diverse communications on the blog.
86. STORMTOP
3:22 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
yes rae i was looking at tahat big blob right over the keys...have to see if it stays there a few days...looks real interesting..keys must have some kind of marine warnings out with this..i will also watch the 82 degrees in the western caribbean..this looks very promising to be TD 11 i think by next week...
85. Raysfan70
3:15 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
glad to see that everyone is coming back. as Cherikm said this is a discussion board, and everyone states there Opinions here. As long as everyone can keep it to a calm everything will be back to Normal.


And on that thought anything about the swirl down in South Florida??
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
84. STORMTOP
3:13 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
THANKS CHERIKM...i believe whty the depression is disapated like it did the african dust is playing a major role this week ......after the 21st of august the dust should calm down because the trade winds will slack off and increased tropical activity will began..i think we will have a late cape verde season but a very bust one in the month of september...
83. cherikm
3:05 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
Hi Stormtop - Please do continue to give us your opinions!! Being on the gulfcoast of Fl, I want to hear all possibilities! I take everyones predictions on here with a grain of salt (as everyone should!), but I do like seeing all the different theories on what these storms will do. :-)
82. whirlwind
2:55 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
yea saw that.. theres some more flare up near between 14 and 83 position in that corner.
81. RobbTC
2:53 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
Our first unnamed storm of the season!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME VERY POORLY DEFINED.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
80. STORMTOP
2:52 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
thanks whirwind i appreciate what you said i will see what 10 looks like...im more worried what i see working its way down to the surface at 80 degrees in the caribbean sea right now....there is quite a bit of shear but my opinion this will be TD 11 by tuesday...
79. DauphinIslandDunes
2:46 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
Something interesting looking is bursting into existence around Key West. Probably nothing but thought I'd get y'all to take a look anyway. Link
78. whirlwind
2:43 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
Stormtop- we do want your comments. A different point of view and what may happen is important.
The high probably split b/c it did look very weak above where Irene was. Eventually it just "let" her pass thru.

Dont worry you didnt get anyone charged up in Florida. If it was a cat 5 you were playing with thats different.

I really want to hear your anlysis about TD10. It is in the "Herbert Box", but the shear is strong. What do you say Storm?
77. STORMTOP
2:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2005
i can tell you what happened to the high pressure jed..the high pressure big as it was spilt in two and allowed and alley way for the storm to take to the north ..the nhc said this was going to happen friday night i thought it would hang in there...the nhc was right they should be they have all the tools my hats go off to the nhc for getting this one right ...im very surprised it didnt stall though.....there is nothing much more i can say the nhc did a great job and i applaud them ....great job guys but if you can tell me why the high spilt uo in to 2 pieces and letft the alley way for irene...there was nothing i saw in the water vapor or the atmospheric charts that would make the high split..if you could give me and explanation i would surely appreciate it..im sorry for getting you guys all charged up in florida but i really thought that high would not split like it did..in the future if you dont want my comments ill just agree with everyone else and keep my cooments to myself..i understand why you guys are mad at me i let you down and im sorry for that..you guys should be happy i was wrong you dont want a car 3 like i was predicting...the reason irene has lost strength is not because of any trough but becvause of the colder temps she is over 75 degree water....
76. whirlwind
2:04 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
Floridagirl -- nice link.. I hope it wasnt you messing with my posts.. ;)
75. hurricane79
2:02 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
Another link for bouy info along the track of TD 10 can be seen at:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
74. Floridagirl
2:00 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
Whirlwind..Some people just don't have any sense of humor..
LOL.. Anyway someone had asked me for this link a few days ago and I had to leave for a business trip so here it is now.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41041&meas=wdpr&uom=E
73. newinfl
1:58 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
Dr. Jeff Thanks for all the info that you post. It nice to know that someone new to the weather game has such a good informative site to keep up with current forcasts. The question that I have is there any chance that Irene could circle around and make another attempt at the eastern coast? Thanks
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
71. Jedkins
1:56 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
LOL
70. aquak9
1:16 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
Has anyone looked at the mess of stuff in Africa? Looks like they're lined up like 747's at LAX.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
69. whirlwind
12:24 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
good info hurricane79...
68. linesider
12:22 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
FL Girl, NICE!!!!
67. hurricane79
12:18 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
A Ridge is expected to fill in when Irene departs, which should turn what is left of TD#10 Westward in the direction of the Bahamas. The Westward turn would be in about 72 hours.
65. hurricane79
12:10 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
Correction: "Wave in" Western Caribbean
64. hurricane79
12:09 AM GMT on August 14, 2005
I am glad to see Irene will not make it to the Cape, they had enough problems a couple of years back. TD# 10 looks to have problems of its own for the next few days, after which, if ther is something left, will head somewhat the same direction as Irene, perhaps a little South of that, still too early to tell for sure. The wave in the Western Atlantic simply needs to be watched. From: Palm Harbor, Fl.
63. Floridagirl
11:24 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
lol... funny I have been reading the blogs for days, I'm all packed and ready to run Stormtop.. which way do I go?
lol... Man I am glad you are not our local weatherman, we would all be putting up the wood again on the windows.. I agree that this site should be for casual talk, not telling people to be prepared for a possible landfalling hurricane.
Us Florida people are still weather weary from last year and should not be told something like that, if there is nothing real to back it up.. There i feel better now.. !!
LOL...
62. weatherguy03
10:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
This storm should stay small like Irene due to dry air environment. We will see if this changes down the road.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29705
61. Jedkins
10:53 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
I think that is only small at the moment that will prabably change storms do change size you know.Frances and jeanne esspecially jeanne started out significaly smaller than they were at landfall the size of these storms change quite a bit sometimes.
60. rick1
10:43 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
where is everyone no one talking about the weather on here anymore
59. Hawkeyewx
9:18 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
The NHC says a WEAK ridge(Bermuda high) is forecast to develop north of TD10 later in the period, but a weak ridge is not enough to keep a tropical cyclone from gaining latitude. The NHC track has TD10 near 25 degrees north latitude in five days and beyond that every degree farther north a storm gets the urge to turn north permanently will only grow. For Florida to get hit(like with Andrew), a strong ridge would have to form north of the storm that would be able to force it due west. Even the Carolinas would need a moderately strong ridge to hold in place to be able to force TD10 far enough west to hit them. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. Like the NHC says, there is no guarantee TD10 will even survive the trek through the upper trough.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
58. turtlehurricane
9:16 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
also, TD 10 is 11 days out and 2400 miles away from Miami.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
57. turtlehurricane
9:14 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
TD 10 has formed where Andrew did.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
56. Jedkins
9:04 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
But you know just too early.
55. Jedkins
9:03 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
That isn't the oppinion of the NHC,they are saying that a ridge is forecast to build to the north of it later in the period steering i more westward but like I said too early to tell.
54. jeff14photos
9:01 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
worried im not worried just im worried
53. Hawkeyewx
9:00 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
Whoa, Evan, Florida should not be mentioned at all this soon. The depression is moving northwest and, assuming the official forecast track turns out correct, it would actually be centered farther north than Irene was when in the same area. At that point the situation would be similar to Irene. There will likely be a weakness in the Bermuda high that TD10 would love to slip into and turn northward out to sea. The models today are suggesting the Bermuda high will attempt to re-strengthen beyond 4 days, but currently these models pretty much agree TD10 will have already been pulled in by the weakness and will be too far north to ever threaten the US. For the US to be threatened down the road what needs to happen is for TD10 to stay weak due to hostile conditions from the upper trough in the area, which might allow the system to stay on a bit farther west track. Then the Bermuda high would have to rebuild a bit faster and stronger. If those two things happen then TD10 could eventually be pushed westward toward the southeast US coast. Of course it is still very early and this is all speculation so we'll all just have to watch how the situation develops and be patient.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
52. Jedkins
8:57 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
Ya so don get worried YET but we may start having to in about 5 days if it survies the trough.
51. jeff14photos
8:51 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
yes i agree jed it looks like its going in the direction fraces wnt last year
50. Jedkins
8:47 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
Just montor it for now, dont get worried about it
49. Jedkins
8:46 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
Literally?
48. Jedkins
8:45 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
This one we should watch if it survives the upper trough it will likely be the big talk over the next couple weeks this looks as if it should be monitored more in florida more like a frances setup.
47. whirlwind
8:45 PM GMT on August 13, 2005
Evankisseloff- dont get me excited about another one..too far away...

Jed: Stormtop I think is now banished from this blog, for being so wrong...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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