World Series rainout?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on October 25, 2006

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Tonight's World Series game in St. Louis between the Tigers and the Cardinals has about a 60% chance of being rained out. A developing low pressure system over the Texas Panhandle is expected to pump plenty of moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwards over Missouri today and tonight. An area of steady rain, already visible on regional radar, is moving northwards towards St. Louis, and should arrive at about 7pm local time. If the rain can hold off an extra two hours, there is chance they'll be able to play the game, but right now I'm expecting that the game will be rescheduled for Thursday. The weather outlook is a bit better for Thursday evening's game, but the low pressure system is moving slowly and will still be bringing rain and a few thunderstorms to Missouri through Friday afternoon. I give it a 30% chance of a rainout for Thursday. A rainout should act to give the Tigers a chance to regroup, get their game on track, and make this a competitive series! After the last rainout, the Tigers responded with seven straight victories.

The tropics
Tropical Storm Paul is still alive despite 30 knots of wind shear, but the severely weakened storm is not capable of causing significant damage with its 45 mph winds. Wind shear is expected to increase even more today, finishing off Paul as a tropical cyclone by Thursday, as it makes landfall along the coast of Mexico north of Mazatlan. Los Cabos radar shows just a few heavy thunderstorms near Baja.

In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. However, the GFS model is forecasting that a tropical storm may develop in the western Caribbean late next week.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Paul, updated every 1/2 hour.

Jeff Masters

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212. suenommi
12:17 PM GMT on October 26, 2006
Literally the gulf of Mexico is in my backyard.been researchin red tide and some marine life issues too. was hopin 2 see delta rocket last nite, but didnt. Weather rocket goin up nov.4 too, think from california, not sure. see ya goin to get my "feet wet",before I'm wearin boots next week.lol have a great day.
211. suenommi
12:03 PM GMT on October 26, 2006
Thankfully. Dont get me wrong I am not some freak awaiting destruction, I just love weather and enjoy the learning experience, watched the pacific activity. You guys are all very intelligent in here and I enjoy reading all the entries.
210. Randrewl
11:57 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Well, sue...you picked a good time to be in Florida.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31564
209. suenommi
11:52 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
I expected to be followinn all kinds of activity down here, due to seasonal prediction- who would have thought I would have missed the major storm in Buffalo, I have lived there all my life too. Everyone up there thought we were nuts commin down 2 house durin hurr. season. was wierd.
208. suenommi
11:44 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
im hiding and takin it all in. Ive been down here in Fla foe 8 weeks- printed out 2 many trackin maps I never used.lol. last one was Ernesto.lol. going back 2 Buff Tues..work on nor-easters then
207. Randrewl
11:44 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
I saw the Bahamas yesterday evening. The Gulf must have just showed up. Interesting.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31564
206. nash28
11:39 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Morning Rand.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
205. Randrewl
11:38 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Just listening to you talk to yourself!
Morning Nash
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31564
204. nash28
11:36 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Well, apparently I am having a conversation with myself this morning.....

Anyone awake out there????
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
203. nash28
11:33 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
06z GFS is showing some development from the tail end of a front near the Bahamas as well as development in the northern GOM as well.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
202. nash28
10:55 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Hey guys. Looking at the 00z models, they are hinting at some possible formation in the next week. Probably off the tail end of a front.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
201. nash28
10:41 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Good morning everyone.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
200. Physicsprofessor
10:06 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Good morning everyone...Hi Nash if your out there...busy day for me...see you all later.
199. LowerCal
7:00 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Posted By: Skyepony at 9:31 PM PDT on October 25, 2006.
Lost at least 2 in Paul...


Sad.

Those who have never experienced it don't know the speed, power, and distance with which the water can suddenly run up the beach on a big day ... and even as little as half a foot of rapidly moving water can cause an adult to lose their footing.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
198. LowerCal
6:49 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
... and 93E making its way west from Acapulco.


TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION PAUL...LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS
MEXICO.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
197. hurricane23
6:21 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Good evening,

The atlantic basin is dead and paul has weakened to tropical depression status and will probably have very minimal affects on mexico as its almost non-existant on satellite imagery.

Click here to see a 24 frame loop of Paul making landfall in mexico.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
196. Skyepony (Mod)
4:31 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Lost at least 2 in Paul...

However, the storm has caused at least two deaths, including that of a Renton, Wash., man vacationing in Baja.

Off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, officials were searching for the body of John Skoor who was swept away by a large rogue wave while he was walking along the beach with his wife and sister.

Gilberto Guzman, manager of the SolMar Hotel on the outskirts of the resort, said "an enormous wave" swept Skoor and his sister out to sea late Monday. The sister managed to get back to shore.

Just north of Los Cabos, a 23-year-old Mexican fisherman died Monday after he slipped off rocks being battered by the rough sea in the small resort town of Todos Santos, said Baja California Sur civil defense director Jose Gajon.

Streets were already flooded with ankle-deep water in Cabo San Lucas, where authorities closed schools and opened eight shelters Tuesday. Later police drove through neighborhoods, calling on people to take refuge.

City government spokesman Jorge Castaneda said at least 1,000 residents were being evacuated, most from shantytowns in areas at high risk for flooding.

In Cabo San Lucas, hotel guests played board games in lobbies or read in their rooms.

"It looks as though the storm is dissipating and we're not going to get much of anything at all," said Sandra Scandiber, owner of the small Los Milagros Hotel in Cabo San Lucas. Mexico's Pacific coast was struck by two hurricanes last month.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
195. LowerCal
4:28 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Thanks Skye.

Those spacecraft should eliminate a lot of the uncertainty in how much any particular solar weather event will affect the earth ... in addition to supplying the cool 3D images. B)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
194. cajunkid
4:13 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Would someone care to tell me. What needs to happen for arctic fronts to dive south and bring could weather to the south like we used to see.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
193. Trouper415
4:03 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
What you make of that MichaelSTL and HIGHEXPRESS in 3200 hours?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
192. Skyepony (Mod)
3:50 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
The STEREO spacecraft are alive and talking to ground controllers following launch tonight. ~ from that link. Looks like 2 months til they are in place.

An artist's rendition of the view with LowerCal's 3-d glasses.

The gfs has 93E slightly stronger now than when we talked about this yesterday. I'll give it a little better odds than yesterday. That 2nd storm has been fairly consistant on the runs.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
190. HIEXPRESS
3:45 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
The WAGSOP model says we have a "Storm of the Century" in 3200 hours.. Remember - it is a new century so it won't take much. (wild a$$, seat of the pants model).
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
189. LowerCal
3:06 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Thanks Michael.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
187. LowerCal
2:19 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
The mm5fsu has the new 93E invest becoming significant at 120h. However, since the MM5 is not a global model and the invest is close to it's boundary one could say the MM5 FSU is "on crack".
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
186. LowerCal
1:42 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Posted By: Skyepony at 6:12 PM PDT on October 25, 2006.
Delta 2 just launched NASA's STEREO Sun-watching Satellites.


Cool! B-) Anybody needs some 3-D glasses just mail me, I have some extras, lol.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
185. Physicsprofessor
1:31 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Good evening guys...just saw the Delta Rocket go over my house, Skye Pony did you see it up in Melbourne?
183. Ztapedoc
1:24 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Interesting....
Since I'm not much of a "down under" sailor, I don't concentrate on the "other half" of the world.... Maybe I'll venture that way in a couple of years...

Thanks for the info...
Jack

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
181. Ztapedoc
1:16 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
As a newbie,
I figured that I'd ask all ya'll as to any reason why there are few, if any cyclones in the Indian Ocean. Most hurricane/cyclone activity seems to be concentrated in the N. Pacific and Atlantic.

Jack
S/v Don Quijote
Fajardo, PR
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
180. Skyepony (Mod)
1:12 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Delta 2 just launched NASA's STEREO Sun-watching Satellites. These will give us our 1st 3-D look at the sun. Live coverage here. The launch was beautiful. I heard about it earlier, but forgot & was lucky enough to be outside...sorry no pics for this launch.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
179. hurricane23
12:17 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Again thanks for your help i appreciate it.i made them into thumbails so hopefully thats better.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
177. hurricane23
12:05 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
Interesting Skyepony but it will probably just move out to sea.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
176. hurricane23
12:04 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
ok thanks MichaelSTL.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
174. hurricane23
12:00 AM GMT on October 26, 2006
MichaelSTL i just made them into thumbnails.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
172. Skyepony (Mod)
11:52 PM GMT on October 25, 2006
The 18Z gfs is still picking up on potential development N of PR & E of FL at the end of the run. Comparing it to the 12Z run, looks rounder(more tropical) but also smaller. Hmm the times we've seen the gfs forecast something smaller & smaller til nothing was left this season.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
171. hurricane23
11:50 PM GMT on October 25, 2006
I just resized the pics a bit...sorry about that guys.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
169. 0741
11:42 PM GMT on October 25, 2006
their see a low 1011mb and their say it beneath a upper anticyclone WHICH LIKELY ALLOWED THIS FEATURE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY
168. 0741
11:38 PM GMT on October 25, 2006
..TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
WITH A LARGE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND APPARENT IN SFC OBSERVATIONS. A 1011 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOT EASILY IDENTIFIABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGES.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS S OF 16N. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY BENEATH AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE WHICH LIKELY ALLOWED THIS FEATURE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
166. LowerCal
11:26 PM GMT on October 25, 2006
New invest 93E.



TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
165. LowerCal
11:19 PM GMT on October 25, 2006
... and the image quality is just as good as the original at this size.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
163. salter
11:12 PM GMT on October 25, 2006
Hey there,hows everyone doing tonight.little chilly this mourning 38 in zephyrhills FL.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.