Paul ripped in half by shear; World Series rainout for Wednesday?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on October 24, 2006

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In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Paul is being torn in two by wind shear of 15-30 knots, and it appears that the storm will not cause significant damage to Mexico. Satellite loops of Paul show that the shear has torn away the upper portion of the storm, which is approaching Baja. A smaller lower-level portion has been left behind, and is quickly dissipating. Los Cabos radar shows some heavy thunderstorms approaching Baja, but I don't expect winds of more than 50 mph to affect Baja. All of the computer models are forecasting that there will be very little left of Paul by the time it reaches the coast of mainland Mexico, north of Mazatlan, on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Paul, updated every 1/2 hour.

World Series forecast
Tonight's game in St. Louis between the Tigers and the Cardinals looks to have good (but chilly) weather. Skies should be clear with light winds and a game-time temperature of 43 degrees. It's a different story on Wednesday, when a developing low pressure system is expected to bring 12 or more hours of steady rain to St. Louis beginning at about gametime. I expect an 80% chance of a rainout of Wednesday's game. The situation is a little better for Thursday, but there are going to be thunderstorms around--possibly severe--into Thursday night. I give it a 30% chance of a rainout for Thursday. Expect to see some baseball being played Friday night in St. Louis to make up for a rainout!

Jeff Masters

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124. Physicsprofessor
10:28 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Morning Nash.
123. LowerCal
6:16 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
fixed that broken translation (for good I hope)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
122. Skyepony (Mod)
5:20 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Some pics of Mexico preparing for Paul, his waves, their officals...followed by some funny pics of Max Mayfield, then they pretty much go into sports as the slideshow goes on.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39084
121. Skyepony (Mod)
5:06 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Paul has been reduced to a TS.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39084
120. Skyepony (Mod)
4:54 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
NOAA has put out a graphic where you can track the doldrums ~ areas with less then 5mph surface wind. They've figured out the doldrums is one of the many stresses that bleach coral.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39084
119. aquak9
4:01 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
G'nite to the good Dr.'s blog. An honor, as always.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
118. LowerCal
3:56 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Good night BtnTx. I'm going too.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
117. BtnTx
3:55 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Good night all as sleepy sandman has taken over the weather for me tonight.
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
116. LowerCal
3:51 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
I understand. You need to feel your client's pain, LOL.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
115. LowerCal
3:47 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Good evening aquak9.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
114. BtnTx
3:46 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
LowerCal - I could switch, but I have to support windows at my job, so I choose to suffer accordingly.
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
113. aquak9
3:45 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Hello and good evening from shivery Northeast Florida. Just had to pop in and say hello to all the diehards...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
112. LowerCal
3:43 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
I read about your problem on your blog. Too bad you can't switch to MEPIS Linux like I did.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
111. BtnTx
3:40 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Lowercal - not on this semi broken laptop that I recently (up) graded.
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
110. BtnTx
3:37 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Good Wishcasterboy as that is a pic of Mr. Bean being happy about weather!
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
109. LowerCal
3:37 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
BtnTx just click the link, Google translated it for you ... more or less. At least you won't have to blog yourself, LOL.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
107. BtnTx
3:32 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
LowerCal, no habla espanol, but don't mind the post.
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
106. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:30 AM GMT on October 25, 2006


Tropical Depression 02F assigned by Nadi, Fiji.

so this is in the south central pacific..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46550
105. BtnTx
3:29 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Wishcasterboy - I don't think that pic is of Mr Bean. Oh my gosh I am going to have to come up with weather related subject or exit this blog.
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
104. LowerCal
3:26 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
rodrigo0 is reporting from La Paz in Baja California. translation
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
102. BtnTx
3:23 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Another neat feature of WU blogs is that one can blog to themself. Kind of reminds me of the the Mr. Bean show where he mailed Christmas cards to himself so he would get some Christmas cards in the mail!
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
101. BtnTx
3:16 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
I think the WU servers are having a hard time keeping up with the heavy traffic on this blog-LOL
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
100. kmanislander
2:38 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
guess so
tomorrow then
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
99. kmanislander
2:36 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
is everyone gone for the night ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
98. pottery
12:54 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
actually,I can feel a cold spell coming on now, so I"m going to take a hot shower and head to bed. its 8.53 pm here and all..............
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
97. pottery
12:43 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
sometimes in jan/feb it can get down to 70 here in the early morn. the whole island is late for work when that happens. brrrrrrrrr man.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
96. pottery
12:39 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
tropic, I checked it, but I didnt doubt you at all. how cold does it get there in VA ??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
95. tropicfreak
12:39 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
actully the low for tonight is soposed to be 2 degrees below freezing.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
94. tropicfreak
12:36 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
pottery, check the forecast for richmond so I could prove it.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
93. tropicfreak
12:33 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
alright
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
92. pottery
12:32 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
nothing in the atlantic except rain east of barbados. but their forecast is not alarming. just another day in paradox..........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
91. tropicfreak
12:32 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
A 40 degree difference
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
89. Wishcasterboy
12:31 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Dry air and wind shear should kill it.
88. tropicfreak
12:31 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
What a difference! I was freezing, even with my sweatshirt!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
87. tropicfreak
12:30 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
are there any disturbances out in the atlantic
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
86. pottery
12:30 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
tropicfreak, that sounds a little chilly for me.......today was a 85 here with 2" of rain in my gauge
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
85. tropicfreak
12:26 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Today it was FREEZING HERE IN RICHMOND VA!!!! The high was 45 degrees! Tonights low is only 2 degrees above freezing!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
84. pottery
12:23 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Why, hello wischcaster. whats up on the eastern front off the islands tonight? looks like rains are a- coming....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
83. Wishcasterboy
12:20 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Hello Pottery
82. pottery
12:20 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
well bah and humbug. I left too..........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
81. pottery
12:17 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
everybody left????????????
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
80. Skyepony (Mod)
12:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2006
Recon flew Paul today...they've already headed home. Not real impressive.

Storm PAUL: Observed by AF #308
Storm #17 In Eastern Pacific Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #17: 02
Date/Time of Recon Report: October 24, 2006 19:15:50 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 19 58 ' N 111 26 ' W (19.97 N 111.43 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850 Millibars: 1421 Meters (Normal: 1457 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 25 Knots (28.75 MPH)Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 029 Nautical Miles (33.35 miles) From Center At Bearing 221
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 030 Knots (34.5 MPH) From 307
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 027 Nautical Miles (31.05 Miles) From Center At Bearing 221
Minimum Pressure: 999 Millibars (29.499 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 1525 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 25C (77F) / 1524 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 17C (62.6F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 53 KT E Quadrant at 17:50:00 Z


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39084
79. pottery
11:55 PM GMT on October 24, 2006
ryang, are you in B'dos???
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
78. LowerCal
11:38 PM GMT on October 24, 2006
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

...
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9228
77. Ron5244
11:28 PM GMT on October 24, 2006
I have posted a blog in rememberance of Hurricane Wilma on my site.

Please come check it out:
www.Hurricaneworld.com
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
76. stormchasher
10:47 PM GMT on October 24, 2006
MAIL CALL FOR RYANG!!
>
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
75. stormchasher
10:39 PM GMT on October 24, 2006
Hi ryang!! :0)
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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