Paul weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:43 PM GMT on October 23, 2006

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In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Paul is forecast to pass very close to Baja Tuesday night, and then strike the coast of mainland Mexico north of Mazatlan Wednesday morning. Wind shear has incresed to 25 knots, up from 10 knots this morning, and Paul's appearance on satellite loops is much less impressive tonight. The eye is gone, the cloud pattern distorted, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found winds at 3:22pm EDT this afternoon of only Category 1 strength.

Paul is not yet visible on Los Cabos radar, but will be Tuesday morning. Paul will pass within 40 miles of Mexico's Socorro Island tonight. The island is hosting a group of Mexican and German Ham radio operators there for a radio operating event with many antennas up, making contact with other Ham operators around the world. They'll have plenty to talk about tonight, as winds should pick up to 60 mph, with gusts to 100 mph! Hopefully, they won't be saying, "socorro!", the Spanish word for "help".


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Paul, updated every 1/2 hour.

Paul has begun his expected turn to the north, and is on track to recurve to the northeast, passing just south of or over the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Tuesday afternoon. Paul will be in a region of high wind shear of 25 knots or more that should significantly weaken the storm, since it is a relatively small hurricane that is vulnerable to shear. Given Paul's current organization, the storm is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes the tip of Baja. Paul should be considerably weaker at second landfall in mainland Mexico, due to wind shear plus land interaction with the mountains of Baja. The landfall in mainland Mexico will be in the same sparsely populated region that Category 3 Hurricane Lane hit last month, and significant damage and casualties are much less of a threat than for Paul's possible impact on Baja.

Jeff Masters

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61. nash28
12:41 PM GMT on October 24, 2006
The 00z CMC shows some activity in the Carribbean late in the run.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
60. Thundercloud01221991
11:24 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Obviously nothing is going on in the tropics cause no one is on
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
59. Tazmanian
5:16 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
840 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006


A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION FOR THE FORECAST IS HURRICANE PAUL. THE
NAM-12/WRF RUNS FOR 23/00Z THROUGH 23/18Z BROUGHT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM PAUL TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF KERN COUNTY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEW 00Z RUN HAS BACK OFF FROM THIS...AND IS MORE IN
LINE WITH EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT KEPT ANY TROPICAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WELL SOUTHEAST OF KERN COUNTY. THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS BRINGING PAUL INLAND A BIT FASTER...AND AS A RESULT THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUDS TUESDAY
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL BACK OFF SKY COVER A BIT TUESDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST.


my AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION is talking about HURRICANE PAUL a little well my for AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION is SACRAMENTO CA


if any one have any commet on this or tell me what you think about it Please Please feel free to e mail me by WU e mail for any commet you may have or what you think about on what i this post on HURRICANE PAUL thanks and have a good night i look at my mail when i get up or some time in the day good night evere one






Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
58. 1900hurricane
3:34 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Night.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
57. 1900hurricane
3:34 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Monica had winds of 180 mph (155 kts).
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
56. CybrTeddy
3:33 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
CAT-4 was my 2 prediction
my first one was a CAT-2
Now im saying Maybe a 145 mph hurricane CAT-4
or a 165 CAT-5 (Note My 3 perdiction had it as strong as Monica)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23572
55. 1900hurricane
3:30 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Congradulatons on the prediction!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
54. CybrTeddy
3:29 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
holy cRAP My prediction was right! Xaviers a CAT-4!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23572
52. 1900hurricane
3:27 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
What would 130 mph be in kts?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
51. 1900hurricane
3:26 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 10:16 PM CDT on October 23, 2006.

I remember a problem with the new maps for storms crossing the dateline (Ioke)... it had the storm literally bouncing off the dateline!


I remember that!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
48. 1900hurricane
3:13 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Why are the maps different?


The second one is wrong.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
46. BahaHurican
1:42 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
'Night everybody.

I'm finding the discussion of Xavier quite interesting. I notice the track has shifted south so that it is now headed for Vanuatu instead of between it and the Solomons . . . If it maintains its impressive conformation this is really bad news for them, especially so early in the season. At cat 4 / 5 the storm doesn't have to be all that big to tear up an island. Remember Andrew?

I'm not surprised by the weakening trend on Paul, but I'd like to see what happens around dawn our time tomorrow (EDT)before I'm sold on a complete weakening.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
44. Skyepony (Mod)
1:16 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Here's another wave graphic. Click on the box over the GOM & then click on java loop.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37353
42. Skyepony (Mod)
1:09 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
LowerCal~ looks like it has potential, though the models aren't excited about it~ the gfs shows a little storm forming in that area after that one disipates.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37353
41. hornfan
1:01 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
bugette - jump on 03's blog. i saw him online a little while ago.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 7902
40. hornfan
12:59 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Bugette - my brother has worked offshore before I understand. I really don't think that you have anything to worry about but I am still a novice at this.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 7902
39. Skyepony (Mod)
12:51 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Looks like some waves may come through the GOM around 123 hrs.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37353
37. LowerCal
12:49 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Amongst the convection on the ITCZ it looks like there's a LLCC close to 12.0N 94.6W RGB loop.

This area is currently under 5-10kts of shear.



Any comments?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
36. Bugette
12:38 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Sounds like there won't be much to it when it gets to the GOM. They were worried they might have to leave the job if it was gonna be bad. When you go to the dock you don't make money. They can hang if its only 10' to 15' seas, just anchor up and hang on.
Member Since: October 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
35. hornfan
12:28 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Bugette. I think that they stated earlier that the cane will be sheer by the mountains in MX. However, it should provide rain for parts of Texas as the storm moves inland.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 7902
34. Bugette
12:20 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Just wondering if anyone thinks that Paul will have any effect on the GOM near Port Aransas. My husband is working the gulf near there.
Member Since: October 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
33. rodrigo0
12:17 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
Today / La Paz / Baja / México

http://static.flickr.com/89/231312500_35753ef34a.jpg



32. 1900hurricane
12:06 AM GMT on October 24, 2006
I can't get over the feeling that there could be a potential monster...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
31. 1900hurricane
11:56 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
MichealSTL, you know everything!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
29. hurricanic
11:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 130
28. 1900hurricane
11:50 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Posting images:



Add width="640" after the last quote and greater-than sign for larger or smaller images.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
27. sandcrab39565
11:48 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Hello, GoofOff,
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
26. GoofOff
11:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Hi Crab
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
25. Wishcasterboy
11:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2006


Emmm.... I'm to lazy.
24. sandcrab39565
11:44 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Hello, anyone home?
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
23. hurricane23
11:38 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
it would be to use on a website.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
22. sandcrab39565
11:37 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Hey Pat glad the snail mail arrived
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
21. hurricane23
11:37 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
i know how to put images on the blog....Iam having trouble createing smaller images of a bigger picture so you could just click on it and see the normal size.iam trying to use some loops so i would need the pic to be a bit bigger then a regular thumbnail.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
20. sandcrab39565
11:36 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Afternoon all whats up Rand
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
19. Wishcasterboy
11:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Which Michael?
18. HurricaneMyles
11:34 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
The ADT is still relying on forecast interpolation which is why it can figure out what's going on. They(CIMSS) should be allowing the program to find its own center, but for some reason it's not happening. If the program reconized the eye I imagine that the raw T#'s would be somewhere in the 6 range with the impressive IR appearance.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
17. Randrewl
11:31 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Michael...can you help me take the garbage out?
LOL
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31597
16. Wishcasterboy
11:31 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/j/JeffMasters/37.jpg"

Type this in then add > to the end and post it.
15. Wishcasterboy
11:29 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Should I take this one Mike?
14. hurricane23
11:28 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
MichaelSTL can you help me out with some images?
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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