Paul continues to strengthen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on October 23, 2006

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In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Paul is forecast to pass very close to Baja Tuesday afternoon, and then strike the coast of mainland Mexico north of Mazatlan Tuesday night. Paul is under only about 10 knots of shear this morning, and his satellite appearance has continued to improve. The eye has become better defined the past six hours, and with shear expected to remain below 20 knots until tonight, Paul has a chance to become a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds by Tuesday morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will investigate Paul this afternoon.

Paul is not yet visible on Los Cabos radar, but will be tonight. Paul will pass within 60 miles of Mexico's Socorro Island today. The island is hosting a group of Mexican and German Ham radio operators there for a radio operating event with many antennas up, making contact with other Ham operators around the world. They'll have plenty to talk about tonight, as winds should pick up to 60 mph, with gusts to 100 mph! Hopefully, they won't be saying, "socorro!", the Spanish word for "help".


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Paul, updated every 1/2 hour.

Paul has begun his expected turn to the northwest this morning, and is on track to recurve to the northeast, passing just south of or over the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Tuesday afternoon. The latest (6Z) run of the GFDL model forecasts Paul will make a direct hit on San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo with 105 mph winds. The earlier run (00Z) had Paul just missing Baja to the south. The northern portion of Paul will be in a region of high wind shear near 30 knots beginning Tuesday morning, and most of the global computer models forecast that this shear will rapidly weaken Paul, since he is a small hurricane that is potentially vulnerable to shear. The Canadian model takes the weakening to an extreme and dissipates Paul before the storm reaches Baja. However, the GFDL model, which has outperformed the other models for Paul, continues to show that Paul will remain a Category 2 hurricane until final landfall on mainland Mexico. Given Paul's current organization, I think it likely the storm will be able to maintain Category 2 status when it passes the tip of Baja. Paul should be considerably weaker at second landfall in mainland Mexico, due to wind shear plus land interaction with the mountains of Baja. The landfall in mainland Mexico will be in the same sparsely populated region that Category 3 Hurricane Lane hit last month, and significant damage and casualties are much less of a threat than for Paul's possible impact on Baja.

Jeff Masters

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132. LowerCal
11:54 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Amongst the convection it looks like there's a LLCC close to 12.5N 94W RGB loop.

This area is currently under 5-10kts of shear.



Any comments?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
130. cgableshurrycanegal
10:24 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
WPB... I know what you are sating about the ad with the chair rolling thru DC... it really IS clever if a tad misleading by some accounts...
I get a laugh from it each time I see it, and I'm voting for Davis!!! Should Crist win, I can live with him as well, so am just watching the creative (?) minds at work
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
128. philliesrock
10:12 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
128th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
127. WPBHurricane05
9:58 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
i love that "Where is Jim Davis" commercial, especially when the empty chair rolls by, donkey or elephant, ya gotta love it (note: if you dont live in Florida, you will have no clue on what im talking about)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
126. Wishcasterboy
9:56 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
My blogs updated!
125. WPBHurricane05
9:55 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
i thought shear was gonna make paul go bye-bye
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
124. Skyepony (Mod)
9:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Recon altitude is at 27000, so they are most likely going home.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
123. Skyepony (Mod)
9:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Glad to see ya paying attention saddle:)

Actually diurnal maximum happens in the overnight, when the air is cool & the water warm. Helps form condinsation, creating convection. Being time sensitive for the area, Paul is approaching diurnal minimum, when it would generally look it's worse for the day (ya got the general consept). It's about 2:45pm over there, minimum usually peaks out around 4-5pm.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
122. hurricane23
9:17 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
2:00PDT National Hurricane center track for paul.
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
121. 1900hurricane
9:14 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
120. hurricane23
9:10 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
443
WTPZ42 KNHC 232045
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR
TOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
119. hurricane23
9:09 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
WTPZ32 KNHC 232045
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

...PAUL WEAKENING...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
117. CybrTeddy
9:03 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
my blog is up come on over I update every advisory
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
116. 1900hurricane
9:02 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Clever clever!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
114. WPBHurricane05
8:54 PM GMT on October 23, 2006

Xavier has a nice eyewall
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113. 1900hurricane
8:52 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Did you make that image MichealSTL?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
112. 1900hurricane
8:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
LInk
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
110. WPBHurricane05
8:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
...PAUL WEAKENING...
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
109. WPBHurricane05
8:50 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
and now his winds are at 90 MPH
(ET) 11 AM-110
(ET) 2 PM-100
(ET) 5 PM-90
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
108. 1900hurricane
8:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
I think it is an ERC.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
107. WPBHurricane05
8:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
if you look back Paul has actually weakend from the 11 AM advisory to the 2 PM advisory (Eastern Time)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
106. 1900hurricane
8:48 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 3:46 PM CDT on October 23, 2006.

Actually, the sun is rising over Xavier; notice that the east side is lighter.

Right, I knew that... lol 1900!


Well I did, I just wasn't thinking straight at the time. I just got home from school...
: )
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
105. Sprocketeer
8:48 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Paul's winds just fell by 20 mph on the latest advisory!
104. WPBHurricane05
8:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
when i get my images frim the NRL, they usually dont expire for me
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
103. WPBHurricane05
8:46 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Actually, the sun is rising over Xavier; notice that the east side is lighter.

Right, I knew that...
lol 1900!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
102. CybrTeddy
8:46 PM GMT on October 23, 2006


Hmm pin hole
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
101. 1900hurricane
8:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
I do get my images from the NRL, but I also use Image Shack and host the images so they don't expire. I had a problem with the images on my blog until I found Image Shack.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
100. CybrTeddy
8:43 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
ok
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
98. ryang
8:41 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
micheal you have a link for those pics
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
97. CybrTeddy
8:41 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
were do you get the Xavier photos besides
the NRL "I cant post any photo's from the NRL"
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95. ryang
8:37 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
1900 you like posting pics
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
94. ryang
8:37 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
1900 can you post one of those pic on my blog
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93. 1900hurricane
8:36 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
92. ryang
8:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
soon
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
91. 1900hurricane
8:34 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
With the pinhole eye that is currently there, I think it is.
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90. ryang
8:34 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
not yet pony
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
89. ryang
8:33 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
category 3 yes
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
88. ryang
8:32 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
it cannot be possible
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
87. Skyepony (Mod)
8:30 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Looks like I was wrong on the 112 lon thing, from where the center is. Usually ya don't see the lon go near 1 in distance in 30 seconds. Perplexed i am, any thoughts?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
86. 1900hurricane
8:30 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
I personally think Xavier is going to be a strong 3 at max.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
85. 1900hurricane
8:29 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
I think it is possible.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
84. CybrTeddy
8:24 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Soo Xavier could infact be a CAT-4?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
83. Skyepony (Mod)
8:23 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
vortex from the center pass
Storm PAUL: Observed by AF #307
Storm #17 In Eastern Pacific Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #17: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: October 23, 2006 19:22:00 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 16 48 ' N 111 37 ' W (16.80 N 111.62 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2930 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 80 Knots (92 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 017 Nautical Miles (19.55 miles) From Center At Bearing 132
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 078 Knots (89.7 MPH) From 220
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 012 Nautical Miles (13.8 Miles) From Center At Bearing 135
Minimum Pressure: 978 Millibars (28.879 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 23C (73.4F) / 3034 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 18C (64.4F) / 3038 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 7C (44.6F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38212
82. 1900hurricane
8:23 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 3:22 PM CDT on October 23, 2006.

Actually, the sun is rising over Xavier; notice that the east side is lighter.


Right, I knew that...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.