Paul threatens Mexico; World Series weather in Detroit

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2006

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In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Paul is forecast to pass very close to Baja as a tropical storm on Tuesday and then strike the coast of mainland Mexico. Paul is under only about 10 knots of shear this morning, and his satellite appearance has shown as a modest improvement since last night. The shear is expected to remain below 20 knots through Monday, which may give Paul enough time to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane. Shear is expected to increase on Monday, significantly weakening Paul before he makes landfall in Mexico. The GFDL model is still predicting that Paul will become a major hurricane, but the rest of the models do not agree with this. The other models' forecast of a weakening Tropical Storm Paul at landfall in Mexico Tuesday seem more reasonable, given the 20+ knots of shear expected to impact the storm beginning Monday.

A QuikSCAT pass from 9:22am EDT today showed Paul's top winds at about 50 mph. It is interesting to compare this image (the standard 25 km resolution product) with the high resolution 12.5 km QuikSCAT image of the same region. The high-resolution product suffers from more ambiguity about which direction the winds are blowing, and sometimes the algorithm to detect which direction the winds are blowing gets it wrong. The winds on the south side of Paul in the high-resolution 12.5 km QuikSCAT are exactly the opposite of what they should be.

World Series forecast
It looks like some nasty weather for the Tigers and Cardinals tonight, with a game-time temperature of 40 degrees, occasional rain showers, and 15-20 mph winds. The wind should be from the west-northwest, from home plate towards left field (take a look at the orientation of Comerica Park with respect to the wind). This will favor the home-run hitting possibilities for right-handed sluggers like Albert Pujols and Magglio Ordonez. Snow may mix in with the rain late in the game. I doubt the rain showers will be heavy enough to force a rain delay.

Jeff Masters

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232. GoofOff
1:43 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Also, if you accept the 'Snowball Earth' theory, almost all the surface land mass was bunched up down around Antarctica. If that was the case, then most plant and any animal life would have been in that region. Since that it what eventually becomes oil, there could be a huge amount in that area.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
230. GoofOff
1:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
The ITCZ is still staying fairly well north of the Equator. I would imagine it would be possible to have storms on both sides of it as long as this conditions remains. The southern hemisphere seems to have always had nastier weather than the north and that is one reason there hasn't been as much exploration for oil in the southern regions. It is usually just too tough to anchor off shore drilling rigs in that area. I think some companies are going to attempt it soon. Should be interesting, because much of the area has not had many test wells put down, but the ones that were looked promising.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
229. suenommi
1:27 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
booking conventions in tampa again since hurricains are out of site and out of mind for people in other areas of the country. and tourists arent as fearful to plan trips down to the storm prone areas. hopefully giving business in coastal areas time to recoup losses.
228. jbush7777
1:20 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
A question: is the situation of having a TS/Hurricane in both the northern and southern hemisphere one that occurs often?
225. G35Wayne
1:02 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
uh This cold front will shut down the hurricane season for good
224. wthrobserver
12:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
Randrewl, Will you be boarding up in memorial today or checking to see if your furnace works in preperation for the coming cold front?
222. Gatorx
12:17 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
nash dear....mail call
221. suenommi
12:08 PM GMT on October 23, 2006
thanks. on Anna Maria Island we wont get as cold as Pan Handle of Fla. Saturday and yesterday were extremely hot, as anyone who watched the Bucks game knows. was well over 100deg inside Raymond James Stadium.
219. suenommi
11:41 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Can a blob form from the tail end of that front? it looks like last weeks pattern that brought all that bad stuff to patraps neck of the woods. storms flarin up over on that side of gulf again.
218. suenommi
11:33 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Cold front movin across tampa area today. quite breezy, screwin up my shell hunting, the gulf is choppy 3-5 ft waves. cold front brings are high from 90 to 78 lol. im from Buffalo..that "aint no cold front" lol
216. Gatorx
11:09 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
another day, another dollar....mail box nash
215. pottery
11:07 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Mornin nash. Hows the coffee going down? Im thinking of another cup to get kickstarted here.........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23115
214. Thundercloud01221991
11:06 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 AM CDT MON OCT 23 2006
...

HIGH PRESSURE IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THE RESULTING
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL DROP FAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MID 30S ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
CRESTVIEW TO WAYNESBORO LINE W/ LOW TO MID 40S ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AS WELL.
NORMALLY COOL LOCATIONS SUCH AS VALLEYS MAY SEE A HEAVIER FROST AND
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS AND ANIMALS.
DEBATED A FROST ADVISORY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FROST AND
WILL PASS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT FOR CONTINUED MONITORING. /13
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
213. nash28
11:05 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Good morning everyone.

Time for another week.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
212. pottery
11:00 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
yes indeed, and its raining on me today. with lots more to come it seems.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23115
211. Gatorx
10:57 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
feel blessed my friend
210. Gatorx
10:57 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
hi pottery (blushing)
209. pottery
10:51 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Mornin gatorx, How are you today? Another storm for baja?? I feel so left out this year...............
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23115
208. Gatorx
10:37 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Good Morning all.
207. BahaHurican
10:26 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
I don't live in Baha, btw, but in the BAHAmas . . . lol. I agree with the rest of what u said though. It's hard to believe Baha has gotten hit 3 times this year, while no ATL storm made a mainland landfall. Milagro . . .

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20744
206. suenommi
10:17 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
the tropical update on the weather channel at 5:50 am edt said that west texas will see significant rain from Paul, according to their forcast track.
205. suenommi
10:13 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
are you gettin ready to evacuate? this doesnt look like one to fool around with. I wish you the best, this blog should heat up as people get up this morning
204. BahaHurican
9:46 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Looks like Xavier is still only TS strength, but they are expecting it to strengthen to low cat 2 over the next 24-36 hrs, according to this:

remarks:
221500z position near 11.1s 167.1e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 01p (xavier), located approximately 445 nm
east-southeast of honiara, Solomon islands, has tracked westward at
03 knots over the past six hours. Over the past 12 hours the system
has only weakly intensified from the previous forecast. Deep convec-
tion has become less organized over the low level circulation center
with multiple cells developing on the southern and south-eastern
periphery. Tc 01p remains in a weak vertical wind shear environment
with favorable upper level outflow allowing the system to continue
to intensity through the forecast. Tc 01p will begin to track towards
a series of mid-latitude troughs approaching over eastern Australia.
Maximum significant wave height at 221200z is 21 feet. Next warnings
at 230300z and 231500z.//

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20744
203. BahaHurican
9:43 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
I wonder if there is any chance of Paul's remnants bringing more rain to W. TX . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20744
202. BahaHurican
9:39 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Here's the 2 am discussion:

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230848
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN T4.5 AND
T5.0...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. THE EYE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SURROUNDED
BY A NARROW RING OF -70C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS. OUTFLOW IS STRONG
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT LIMITED ZONALLY.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNUSUALLY PROBLEMATIC. PAUL
WILL VERY SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INDEED THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/4. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW
HEADED FOR PAUL...AND THESE COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AS PAUL BEGINS TO RECURVE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE RIDING ALONG A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
EFFECT THIS SHEAR WILL HAVE ON THE STRUCTURE AND HENCE THE TRACK OF
PAUL. EVERY GLOBAL MODEL...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN...SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF PAUL AND LEAVES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
REMNANT TO LINGER BEHIND. AND I CAN'T BLAME THIS ON THE
INITIALIZATION...BECAUSE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EACH HAVE A VERY
WELL-DEFINED INITIAL VORTEX. ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE THE
GFDL...WHICH KEEPS PAUL AS A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE AND RACES IT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET
IS TO FAVOR THE GFDL SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS DESIGNED TO SORT OUT MODEL BIASES...ALSO
FAVORS THE GFDL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
TRADITIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SO SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. AFTER THAT...SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERTAKES THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL
STILL WANTS TO MAKE PAUL A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL BUT IF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SHEAR RIGHT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THE
SHARP SHEAR GRADIENT...A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WOULD KEEP PAUL IN A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT
COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH LONGER.

A 72 HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN ONLY SO AS NOT TO SHOW THE TRACK
ENDING ABRUPTLY OFFSHORE. I DON'T REALLY EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO
SURVIVE A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.2N 111.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 17.2N 111.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.1N 111.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 110.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.6N 108.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 104.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20744
201. BahaHurican
9:38 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Morning, all,

I see 23 was right about Paul when he said still a hurricane on landfall. This storm is taking an interesting path.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20744
199. Wishcasterboy
6:05 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
GTGTB
196. Wishcasterboy
6:00 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Aren't there certain risks to your Tunnels theory?
195. Wishcasterboy
5:54 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
That's to Patrick's on this blog now. The other being Patrap.
193. Wishcasterboy
5:49 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
You have one right?
192. Wishcasterboy
5:51 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Your real name.
190. Wishcasterboy
5:45 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Your confused?
188. Wishcasterboy
5:37 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
What's your name?
187. Wishcasterboy
5:34 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Ha, It's Mike.
185. Wishcasterboy
4:50 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
Just kidding, It's actually a good theory.
183. Wishcasterboy
4:16 AM GMT on October 23, 2006
It's your TUNNEL!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.