Paul in Mexico; World Series weather in Detroit

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on October 21, 2006

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The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico (90L) has become disorganized, and tropical storm formation is no longer a threat from this system. In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Paul has the potential to be a serious threat to Baja on Monday and mainland Mexico on Tuesday. The 2am EDT run of the GFDL model intensified Paul into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds just south of Baja on Monday. While this forecast is probably too aggressive based on the GFDL forecasts I've seen for the other Pacific Mexican hurricanes this season, I do think it is likely Paul will become a hurricane by landfall, and could cause extensive damage if it hits a populated area.

World Series forecast
In another matter of weather concern for the U.S. and Caribbean, tonight's World Series baseball game looks like it will be mostly rain-free. A strong cold front is expected to move in late tonight, bringing heavy rain after 1am to Detroit. Today's game time temperature should be about 48 degrees, and wind will be about 10 mph out of the southwest--blowing from right field towards left field. There are some scattered rain showers that may affect the game today, but I doubt these will be strong enough to cause a rain delay.

Jeff Masters

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353. BahaHurican
3:54 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Looking at 1900s SST map, it looks like Xavier will be moving over cooler waters by the end of the forecast period. It's supposed to strengthen to hurricane force before then, I think, but hopefully will not be a long-lived one . . .

I was just thinking this morning how people earlier this year and last year would attempt to run anybody who posted about EPac and other world cyclones off the board. Pretty ironic when u consider that so much of the "action" this year has been in the EPac.

One of the things I really like about Wunderground is that we can see information on tropical systems worldwide. Sorta keeps things in perspective.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
349. lightning10
3:44 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
stronger*. I mean like will the ocean temp get warmer later into the winter time?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
347. ryang
3:42 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
what you mean by storger
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
346. ryang
3:40 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
are i should not know
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
345. lightning10
3:40 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
>_> El Nino looks nice and healthy. If it started late will that mean it will get storger later in the season as well?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
344. ryang
3:40 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
1900 were you born in the year 1990
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
343. ryang
3:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
1900 i mean from my blog
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
341. 1900hurricane
3:28 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
340. 1900hurricane
3:26 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
gone?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
339. ryang
3:25 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
1900 i did not know you were gone
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
338. 1900hurricane
3:22 PM GMT on October 22, 2006

Tunnels?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
337. WPBHurricane05
3:20 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
cyclonebuster, is it time for those tunnels!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
336. 1900hurricane
3:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
HI
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
335. JupiterFL
3:16 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Oh no the world is coming to its end of days!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
334. ryang
3:16 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
hey 1900
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
333. 1900hurricane
3:09 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
328. 1900hurricane
2:30 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Is that something along the ITCZ? In the month of October in an El Nino year?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
327. 1900hurricane
2:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Hello!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
326. ryang
2:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
I AM FINE
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
325. stormchasher
2:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Good not much to do today. How you doing: )
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
324. ryang
2:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
stormchaser how is your sunday
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
323. stormchasher
2:00 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Hi ryang :)
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
322. ryang
1:52 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
hi stormchaser
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
321. stormchasher
1:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Hey this is COOL :) Link I think someone already posted this. SOrry
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
320. GoofOff
1:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Everyone posting now is rated Average or above!!!
That hasn't happened often lately.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
318. ryang
1:30 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
please rand
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
317. ryang
1:29 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
rand can you post that pic in my blog
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
316. Thundercloud01221991
1:27 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Link
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
315. ryang
1:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
thundercloud could you now get the link for me and stormchaser
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
314. Thundercloud01221991
1:20 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Current conditions in Northern Arkansas
Harrison, Boone County Airport
Last Update on Oct 22, 7:53 am CDT


Light Snow

34F
(1C) Humidity: 76 %
Wind Speed: NW 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.24" (1024.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 27F (-3C)
Wind Chill: 28F (-2C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi


Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
313. ryang
1:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
OK
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
310. ryang
1:14 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
thelmores said it was
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
309. ryang
1:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
leftovers which trough
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
307. ryang
1:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
rand is that really bad weather east of the islands
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
304. GeorgefromLosCabos
1:08 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
Thakyou for the map.
It looks that I'll get some rain and winds for tomorrow, i will stay looking for some updates..
Member Since: June 23, 2005 Posts: 29 Comments: 234
303. thelmores
1:08 PM GMT on October 22, 2006
well, they didn't have a "team" for a while!

our main office is near detroit, couldn't resist, i do the same to them! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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