Heavy rains continue in Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on October 20, 2006

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An area of low pressure just northeast of Puerto Rico (90L), continues to spread heavy rain and gusty winds over the northern Lesser Antilles islands. Wind shear over the disturbance has dropped to 10 knots, and is forecast to stay below 20 knots the next two days, which may allow some slow development. The storm has not become any better organized over the past day, however. A QuikSCAT satellite pass last night revealed no well-defined closed circulation, and top winds were just 15-25 mph. Unfortunately, the Puerto Rico radar failed Wednesday. There are two television stations on the island that maintain radars--televicentropr.com (click on "Super Doppler Max" and wait for the animation to load) and Univision (click on "El Tiempo" and scroll to the bottom.) The Univision radar had not updated for 15 hours when I checked this morning. Gracias to Hector Ivan Soto Nazario, P.E. ASCS, Vice President of the Central Industrial Cleaning Corp. of Guaynabo, Puerto Rico, who provided me these handy links.

Flood watches have been posted this morning in eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, where up to five inches of rain fell yesterday. Additional heavy rains are expected today, and 90L will also bring heavy rains and potential flash flooding to the much of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and eastern Puerto Rico over the next day.

Visible satellite animations show that 90L is pushing slowly northeastward out to sea. This motion is expected to continue over the next few days, and 90L will likely not trouble any more land areas by Saturday night. Yesterday afternoon's run of the GFDL model did intensify 90L into a tropical storm, but none of the other models are doing so. I expect the system is too small and disorganized to become a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical development in the Atlantic over the next six days. Some of the models show the possibility of a tropical storm forming along the Pacific coast of Mexico early next week and moving towards Baja, but this has a low probability of happening.

I'll be back with an update Saturday morning. For those of you interested, there have been some good posts on the "View from the Surface" blog this month--an interview with Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT, plus a review of his excellent book, The Divine Wind; a report on a recent Nature magazine article accusing NOAA of suppressing the views of scientists who link intense hurricanes with climate change; and also today's game of guess the quote from the hurricane article.

Jeff Masters

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338. lightning10
4:26 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
I forgot the El Nino started late. Will this mean that we will get a storng but later start in the rainy season down here in the southwest?

I remember when we had a record breaking 40 some inches of rain back in the winter 2004/2005 season there was slightly warmer then average temps in the ocean and there where 2 storms in October then very dry and warm November then after that it was dry tell the day after christmas. Then after that we went with someting like 14 days of rain.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
334. Patrap
4:17 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
..My feeling when I regress to bad times too..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
333. nash28
4:15 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
What the hell happened to the WU web site earlier??

I was getting domain errors as if the domain no longer existed.

I almost shot myself! Just kidding:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
332. Patrap
4:11 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
Do not click on this image if you open the link....Ill be watching..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
329. Patrap
4:08 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
..Aint it Spring?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
328. Patrap
4:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
What Tunnels?..and how did this Mall get in my FEMA trailer?...Darn Ive got a Headache!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
326. lightning10
4:01 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
Go Tropical Storm Paul. Make that eastern Pacific season look strong compaired to the Alantic.

Also it was 91 yesterday where I live in So Cal and heat is expected for the rest of the week and into next weekend (not very El Nino like shakes fist

I remember all other El Ninos the rain strated early October. Yet it has not rained here in almost 90 days. I can tell its not going to be a strong El Nino if it keeps this up.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
321. Patrap
3:54 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
East coast has been hit for millions of years.I doubt anything a man can do..will change that.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
319. Patrap
3:51 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
To see the mechanics well ..or better.Consider watching a 5 year..or 1 year Global Mosaic or Full globe Water Vapor Loops..they available.Then sit back for 2 hours and observe the flows and cycles that are more akin to a rytymn or Breathing if you will.Youll see the Globe differently..Trust me.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
317. Patrap
3:47 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
Plus..we have Thousand of Structures in the GOM..they call um Oil Rigs..and if you took.. 1 million BTUs of 32degreeF air from each one and Pumped this cold air upward ,24hrs a day..during an approaching Hurricane..they wouldnt drop the Heat potential..but 1degree..consider the forces your dealing with.Its like comparing the Atlantic to the Pacific..in activity..The Pacific is 3 times the breeding grounds of the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
316. Patrap
3:44 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
Season was Average at best,by the numbers ..Cyclone.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
313. Patrap
3:41 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
The 10day GFSx..TuLinknnel Data not gridded.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
312. Patrap
3:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
Take a trip ahead 5 million years..Come back..Lemme know how it worked out!..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
311. Patrap
3:38 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
My TunneLinkl for You...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
309. Tazmanian
3:34 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
post 300 lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
308. Patrap
3:34 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
Cyclone..this is what you need to consider first.THe Cyclones around the Planet..are not Bugs or Evil doers to be squashed by tunnels..or Nukes ..or any Man-made controllong factors.The cyclones transport Heat & moisture up to the Higer Lattitudes and keep the Global Temps & Moistues flows in Balance.They are PART..of..but not the rulers of the Atmosphere.They are but one of the mechanics that star in the Process.To stop them in any form..would throw the whole Balance out of Wack..like ripping a Thermostat off a running boiler.We tire of the Tunnels...badly.So please..In the future..Ask others to come to your site..By titling your Entry..TUNNELS..permamently ...Thanks.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
303. Patrap
3:27 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
And I will save this page...just to prove some..arent interested in the Truth..or facts.They just crave dissent & controversy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
302. Patrap
3:26 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
Thanks Michael..right on time as per usual.You very perceptive Guy.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
301. Patrap
3:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
And to Lump all forcasters & mets into a "They" column..is completely absurb...and without much thought
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
299. Patrap
3:24 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
Thats an incorrect assesment Cyclone..The Heat Potential was no greater Last Year..In the GOM..than this...one.It was the Lack of Waves making it across due to the Shear..and not due to lower GOM SSTS...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
297. KyNephi
3:13 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
I think this season really points out the lack of knowledge we have in hurricanes and their understanding of what makes them happen. We had prewarnings of a very turbulent season (comparable to last year). However, the season was one of the quiestest I can remember in recent years. Granted, there is still a little more of the season to go, but we are definately past the hump and no forecasts have predictions of anything major occuring.

So, how reliable is our seasonal outlooks we get? Obviously, not that reliable, and it leads one to believe that all they do is insight fear into ppl when in all actuality, they are just a shot in the dark. I believe seasonal outlooks should either have a big fat warning included with them **WARNING! WE HAVE NO IDEA IF THIS IS ACURATE OR NOT!!**, or we need to drop them altogether.

A season outlook looks about as good as a tournment outlook for a poker player. In all actuality, they have no clue if they will win or not until after it is all said and done.
296. Patrap
3:04 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
..I was Working in the Blog..Late last night..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
293. Patrap
2:27 PM GMT on October 21, 2006
No..thats called SPAM
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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