Tropical disturbance 90L causing floods in the Virgin Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:36 PM GMT on October 19, 2006

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An area of low pressure over the Virgin Islands, just east of Puerto Rico (90L), has gotten better organized this morning. Wind shear over the disturbance has dropped to 20 knots, and is forecast to stay in the 15-25 knot range over the next few days, which may allow some slow development. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 6:04am EDT revealed a substantial wind shift associated with the low, but no well-defined closed circulation. Top winds from QuikSCAT were in the 25-30 mph range. Unfortunately, the Puerto Rico radar failed Wednesday, and the Martinique radar is too far away to see most of the thunderstorm activity.

Flood warnings have been posted this morning on St. Croix in the Virgin islands, where 4 inches of rain has fallen in four hours. Additional heavy rains are expected today, and 90L will also bring heavy rains and potential flash flooding to the rest of the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico over the next two days.

Visible satellite animations show that the disturbance is not moving much, but it is expected to push slowly northward over the next two days. After that, the NOGAPS and UKMET models predict a slow motion to the west-northwest towards the Bahama Islands. The GFS model prefers a due north track, and the other models (Figure 1) call for a more northeasterly track. By the middle of next week, a trough of low pressure should sweep 90L northeastwards out to sea. The disturbance is too small and under too much wind shear to develop into a tropical depression, in all likelihood.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is showing a weak tropical storm forming in the southern Caribbean Tuesday. None of the other models are showing this, and given the lack of consistency of the NOGAPS's predictions of late, this forecast is not credible.

Most of the models show the possibility of a tropical storm forming along the Pacific coast of Mexico early next week and moving towards Baja. This is a believable forecast.

I'll be back with an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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262. 21N71W
1:49 PM GMT on October 20, 2006
blog up
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
261. thelmores
12:58 PM GMT on October 20, 2006
DOH, think that gfdl on 90L is yesterdays! LOL

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
260. wthrobserver
12:55 PM GMT on October 20, 2006
The suppressed Atlantic hurricane season featured 7 named storms (Figure 1), with a record low of one system forming during August-September and a tied record low of 3 systems forming during August-October. The eastern North Pacific season featured a near-average of 17 named storms, 9 of which became hurricanes and 7 of which became major hurricanes (Figure 2). Some of the prominent large-scale atmospheric conditions contributing to this suppressed 1997 North Atlantic season and to the comparatively active 1997 eastern North Pacific season are described in this Special Climate Summary. These conditions are contrasted with those accompanying the very active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season and the inactive 1995 eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity over the eastern North Pacific during 1997 compared to the previous two years was partly related to an expanded area of low vertical wind shear (the change in winds with height), in response to weaker-than-normal upper-level easterly flow throughout the region. Another contributing factor was abnormally warm ocean waters (1 - 2 °C above normal) across the subtropical eastern North Pacific (Figure 3, bottom ), in association with the occurrence of very strong El Niņo conditions [A detailed analysis of the current major El Niņo, its impacts and outlooks can be found in the Climate Prediction Center's Special Climate Summary #97/3).

Here is the relationship for the Atlantic Hurricane season of 97 and 98 which was also one of the stronger El Nino events recorded. You can find this in it's entirety and more at the following link
Link
259. thelmores
12:51 PM GMT on October 20, 2006
anybody else notice that the gfdl is forecasting at least a cat 2 hurricane on 90L!

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
258. IKE
12:45 PM GMT on October 20, 2006
And ALL of the bears will be driven into the north Atlantic by a strong trough moving off of the east coast by Monday.

Adious 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. Lows in the low 40's along the northern GOM ends the season.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
257. thelmores
12:40 PM GMT on October 20, 2006


looks like we have the 3 bears this morning...... papa bear, mama bear, and baby bear! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
256. wthrobserver
12:10 PM GMT on October 20, 2006
Nash, are you saying that El Nino affects last approx. 6 months? I don't think that statement is correct. This present El Nino event started around 5 months ago and is predicted to last through May, which is as far out as the models go. It may last longer and it's my conclusion that next year will be an average year to below average year in relation to tropical system development.
f
255. stormy3
12:09 PM GMT on October 20, 2006
Thank you!
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
254. nash28
12:05 PM GMT on October 20, 2006
Checking the last run of the NOGAPS, it looks like it backed off the TS formation.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
252. stormy3
11:47 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Morning Randrewl, couldn't sleep. Cyclogenisis, now theres a word i like. have to look that up. Altho it sounds like "in the beginning" so on and so forth.
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
250. CybrTeddy
11:28 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Posted By: nash28 at 11:01 AM GMT on October 20, 2006.

Well, I make it a rule to never mix politics with weather, so no comment on that.

As far as El Nino, it should be weak to moderate meaning a wetter winter for the south. Probably won't be strong enough to really put a clamp down on tropical activity next year as these cycles typically last no more than six months.

Expect a more active hurricane season next year.


I agree with you 100% its most likley that the La Nina will build in around May
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
249. nash28
11:01 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Well, I make it a rule to never mix politics with weather, so no comment on that.

As far as El Nino, it should be weak to moderate meaning a wetter winter for the south. Probably won't be strong enough to really put a clamp down on tropical activity next year as these cycles typically last no more than six months.

Expect a more active hurricane season next year.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
247. nash28
10:47 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Amen to that Leftovers.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
245. nash28
10:27 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Morning all!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
244. stormybil
6:50 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
9ol is getiing some spunk again
243. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:37 AM GMT on October 20, 2006


Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
242. LowerCal
5:26 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
I believe you all are at least two hours later than me. 'Night all.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
241. LowerCal
5:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Title="The Green Plus" alt="broken image" works for me. (I do need the alt for a broken image.) See my previous test.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
240. Wishcasterboy
5:22 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Well I'll wrestle with this tomarrow, I'm off to dream land!
239. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:08 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
separate the name
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
238. Wishcasterboy
5:07 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
dang
237. LowerCal
5:07 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
STL that's all I got was text, "Test - broken image using altTest - broken image using alt and title".
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
236. Wishcasterboy
5:06 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
wehttp://ather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1994/GORDON/track.gif length=640
235. LowerCal
5:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
I've Googled "HadesGodWyvern" with "TV" and "television" and all I get is Wunder Blog stuff. At least give me the network, LOL.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
234. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:01 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
the text broken line in that post just came up as text instead of an red X box like IE did.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
233. LowerCal
5:00 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Thanks STL. This has been a most productive evening, LOL.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
232. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:58 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
hmm title should work for both..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
looks like you got the handle of it now
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
229. LowerCal
4:51 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
test

broken green plusbroken image
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
228. G35Wayne
4:50 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Link Now this is a band who knows how to play there intstruments!
227. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:50 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
oh my username is something I seen on tv, haha
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
226. LowerCal
4:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
HGW by other items I meant other than blog/comment images.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
225. LowerCal
4:43 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Yahoo STL! They show up now!
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
224. LowerCal
4:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 9:35 PM PDT on October 19, 2006.
Firefox doesn't allow some alternative codes to appear.

unless the decription is Title="text here"


Ahh, and now I've learned another valuable thing. Thanks HadesGodWyvern.

And why that handle if you don't mind me asking?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
222. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:40 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
oh wait I don't use Linux
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
221. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:37 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
oh really.. mine don't.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
220. LowerCal
4:36 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
I use Firefox 1.5.0.7 running on MEPIS Linux. I get mouse over description on other items but not those two "Total Precip" images.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
219. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:35 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Firefox doesn't allow some alternative codes to appear.

unless the decription is Title="text here"
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45620
218. Wishcasterboy
4:35 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Was that formula I used right?
217. Wishcasterboy
4:34 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
comcast
215. LowerCal
4:31 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Ya, I don't get that mouseover description on my (offbeat) setup.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
214. Wishcasterboy
4:31 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
I'm just trying to get a basic image up here.
213. Wishcasterboy
4:30 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
Well that was wrong.
212. Wishcasterboy
4:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2006
http://www.cbsnews.com/images/2006/09/18/image05515bb1-9f5b-4907-96e4-633a0896d7c2.jpg width=640

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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