Quiet tropics; the globe experiences its 4th warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:16 PM GMT on October 18, 2006

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It's a quiet Wednesday in the tropics. A weak low pressure system near Puerto Rico is kicking up some showers, but this system is under 30 knots of wind shear and is not expected to develop. Wind shear is expected to be relatively light across the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico most of the coming week, and the NOGAPS model is forecasting that a tropical storm will form in the southern Caribbean on Saturday. The storm is forecast to move northwards, threatening Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba early next week. None of the other models are picking up on this, and the NOGAPS has been wrong once before this month on a similar type of forecast. Residents of the Caribbean, south Florida, and the Bahamas should keep an eye on possible development later this week, but I doubt that we'll see a tropical storm in the Caribbean like the NOGAPS model is forecasting.

An unusually cool September in the U.S.
The U.S. experienced its first month with below normal temperatures in over two years last month, according to the National Climatic Data Center September summary. September 2006 was the 31st coolest September dating back to 1895, and the first month with below-normal temperatures since August 2004. Still, January to September was the warmest such year-to-date period on record in the U.S. The nationally averaged year-to-date temperature was 58.3F (14.6C), a full 1F above the record set just last year in 2005. Interestingly, the United States was the only region of the globe that saw significantly cooler than normal temperatures in September (Figure 1). September 2006 was the 37th wettest September on record in the U.S., and Kentucky had its wettest September ever. The cool weather in the U.S. was due to a southward dip of the jet stream over the nation; this jet stream pattern also acted to steer September's hurricanes away from the U.S. and out to sea.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from normal for September 2006.

Globally, the 4th warmest September on record
While the U.S. cooled off in September, the rest of the globe stayed hot. September 2006 was the 4th warmest September globally since records began in 1880 (1.0F/0.56C above the 20th century mean). January to September 2006 was the 4th warmest such period on record. Global ocean temperatures for September were the 3rd warmest on record, thanks in part to an El Nio episode that began in September. Sea ice extent in the Arctic was the second lowest on record this September. The record low was set in 2005.

Jeff Masters

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397. moonlightcowboy
2:45 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Thanks, Patrap! Looks like the line is flaring up big time, little warmer in an hour or two, probably going to get worse shortly. Catch you later.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
396. Patrap
2:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
TORNADO WARNING..MississippiLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
395. moonlightcowboy
2:33 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
eyestoplogo1left.jpg

...something "mysterious" in the Caribbean air? The "big, smelly fellow" may be lingering around.

Looks like we're looking for another round of severe weather today. Just one more day then, TGIF!!! All have a good one, TTYL.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
394. mrpuertorico
2:17 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
looks like 90l is finnaly moving away from PR
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
393. Jeptic
2:14 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
I'm sorry the poster of the pic and the comment was thelmores
392. Jeptic
2:13 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Good day all...
I don't usually post much and I don't have that extensive knowledge of models and their projections etc... but i noticed that Patrap just mentioned some other areas that probably bear watching... East of the Windwards was one of them - I live in Grenada btw - so that interests me...

But also, did anyone notice the blob that just came off Africa? in October no less? Does anyone have any maps that show pressure around that area?

Thank you
391. Patrap
2:03 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Yeah Rand..sandcrab should be commended big time.The disc with the video from Ocean Springs..during the storm..and the Recons right after..POWERFUL stuff.....have 2more disc to look at yet
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
390. thelmores
2:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2006


there does seem to be an area or two we need to watch as well....... besides 90L.....

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389. Patrap
2:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
The local info..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
388. Patrap
2:00 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
TORNADO WARNING! corrected..MISSISSIPPI..new orleans issuance...Link
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385. Patrap
1:58 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Hey Randrewl..ya like the Saintsations pics..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
384. Tazmanian
1:57 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
92E we sould keep a eye on 92E as well look where its at i dont no what way 92E is moveing but it looks like it going to be moveing right overe a vary small part of MX so it looks like we need to watch 92E as well
lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
383. Patrap
1:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Im into my 3rd Tornado Watch in ..heck I dont remember..days...The air mass here is like ..er Troipical...And this spooky line..marching our way..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
382. hurrycain
1:52 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
The blob SW of 90L could be potential storm NOGAP is seeing developing this weekend.
381. thelmores
1:51 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
there does appear to be some circ north of the Domincan Republic that could affect PR.... trying to figure out if it ULL or LL circ there.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
380. benirica
1:49 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
definately. i dont have any shoes left for this week. lol, they are all soaked and waiting for the sun to come dry them
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
378. benirica
1:43 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
lol... dont five it too much thought it was the crazy weather lady that said it... the others didnt say much about it. this crazy one is always negative, shes the one that always seems to see a hurricane heading right towards Puerto Rico.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
376. benirica
1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Nobody here really knows what the hell to say. Yesterday morning they were like "it wont be too bad today, no floods..." and come the PM it was commin down by the bucket and the entire east coast was without power last night... now they say that tomorrow the blob over the BVI/USVI will move west again and come back over land... again.
Why would they say that? Does anyone really see that happening, considering it going SE now?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
375. thelmores
1:28 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
pressure in san juan earlier this morning was 29.69, but appears to be rising, and last report 29.78......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
373. thelmores
1:23 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
hard to tell, but to me, the xtrap looks pretty close......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
371. thelmores
1:22 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
the BAMD is interesting! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
369. Patrap
1:21 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Looks to be moving East...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
368. Patrap
1:20 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
90L wont be around long..for sure..again...too much Fall in the way now..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
367. thelmores
1:19 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
i love it when the actual motion doesnt match the models! LOL

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
364. Relix
1:14 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Ooooh... so its that piece of crap 90L which has been causing so much rain here in Puerto Rico. Yesterday the sub stopped because of the heavy t-storms and rain. Here @ my house the winds blew away a small tent I had put... >_<.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
363. thelmores
1:13 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
wonderful time for the PR radar to be down!





almost appears there is two circs...... the smaller may have the higher winds atm....





Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
362. Patrap
1:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Not much here..Radars down too...figures.LOLLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
361. Patrap
1:08 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Plenty -o-shear to the North of 90L..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
360. Patrap
1:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
The navys ghost of 90L..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
359. BahaHurican
1:01 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Glad I'm not in the Turks and Caicose this morning (was there last week though - GORGEOUS). This storm is a done deal huh?

Why not? There's nary a cloud in the entire archipelago (Bahamas / Turks). The system to the east doesn't look like it's headed this way either.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
357. Patrap
1:00 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
LOL they arent sentient....Just etheral...90L survives to fight again...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
355. mrpuertorico
12:58 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
90l has been makin my life a little wet for just about two weeks now with pressure reaching as low as 999 ml on my personal weather station several times this week 90l is a real trooper deserves a pat on the back
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
354. thelmores
12:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
mornin everybody..... 90L is back.....

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
353. Patrap
12:55 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
I just sent out an E-mail thanking the Writer from the Tampa tribune..for the WUBA nation article..along with a link of course...LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
352. BrandonC
12:54 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
wow so they've put 90L back up eh?? For a storm said to be dead last weekend it sure isn't dieing off so quick. It's got alot of heart I'll give it that.
351. nash28
12:54 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
I am seeing it too Rand. That thing refuses to die.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
350. BrandonC
12:53 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
yeh when I saw wishcast I immediately thought of the bickering that took place when Chris formed.
348. Patrap
12:48 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Heres the SEVERELink listings page now..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
347. nash28
12:46 PM GMT on October 19, 2006
Yeah, I really enjoyed reading the article.

I especially loved the fact that they included the "wishcasting" word in the article:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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