Flooding swamps the Gulf Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on October 17, 2006

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A frontal system accompanied by copious moisture pumped in by tropical disturbance 92L dumped prodigious rains on the Gulf states yesterday. Rainfall totaled 14 inches in some regions of Texas and Louisiana (Figure 1), triggering flooding that killed three people in the Houston area. The victims challenged flood waters in their vehicles, and lost. Parts of Interstates 10 and 45 were shut down around Houston, and the University of Houston and several other schools were closed. The storm system also spawned numerous tornadoes which caused a few injuries and scattered damage. At 3am yesterday, a tornado ripped into a boat yard in Leeville, LA, hurling boats around, flipping two mobile homes, and injuring four people. Tornadoes also hit Lumberton, China, and Magnolia Beach in Texas. The threat of tornadoes continues today across the coastal regions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but should diminish by this afternoon as the atmosphere finally starts to stabilize.


Figure 1. Total estimated rainfall from the Lake Charles radar.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There's nothing going on, anywhere in the world. Later this week, most of the models forecast that a weak tropical storm will form in the central Atlantic northeast of Puerto Rico and move out to sea. Wind shear is expected to be light across the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico most of the week, and the NOGAPS model is forecasting that a tropical storm will form in the southern Caribbean on Friday. The storm is forecast to move northwards, threatening Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba early next week. None of the other models are picking up on this, and the NOGAPS has been wrong once before this month on a similar type of forecast. Still, residents of the Caribbean, south Florida, and the Bahamas should keep an eye on possible development later this week.

I'll be back with an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Too Close for Comfort (INNOVAGOLF)
This normally is a drastic elevation drop below a spillway from our neighborhood lake, sloping steeply from the road, to the back of the picture. The water at its deepest point is at least 15 feet. With 8-10 inches of rain since midnight, the area below our spillway has swollen. Fortunately, a break from the rain is letting everything catch up.
Too Close for Comfort
Power Pole 2 (texfirebug)
High winds blew trees into the lines shorting the pole.
Power Pole 2

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467. HIEXPRESS
1:27 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Move on - New Blog
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
466. Utah2Miami
1:26 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Morning everyone.

RapidIntensify is a bit of a pantywaist isn't he/she?

464. Gatorx
1:07 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Rand ...I sent you mail
460. Patrap
1:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Gm Alabama Momma!..How goes it?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
459. Patrap
1:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Im so Happy ..Saddllegait is up & atum!...WHinnnnie!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
457. Patrap
12:54 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Micheal has never been in a Cane I presume?...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
456. Patrap
12:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
gee ,Im offended..LMAO!..Gm SWLA...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
455. Patrap
12:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
LOL...Okay rapid..you lil tattle tale you..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
454. SWLAStormFanatic
12:50 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Pat...you naughty boy!
452. rapidintensify
12:46 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Patrap, I am reporting you to Dr. Masters, your posts are totally ridiculous. When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
450. Patrap
12:44 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Another recent October Hurricane..We regress so fast..LOLLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
449. Patrap
12:41 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
MArs weather & Obs,,...with pics!..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
448. Patrap
12:39 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
The lack of Experience ..is grippingly evident,,LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
447. Patrap
12:38 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Hurricane Juan...Oct 26-Nov 1, 1985Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
445. Patrap
12:36 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Try contacting them direct by e-mail or phone for assistance..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
444. Patrap
12:37 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
One will learn to refrain from that statement..In October..in time..LOL..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
443. amd
12:35 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
this hurricane season is over.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
442. C2News
12:16 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
hamweather.......
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
441. C2News
12:15 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
i am so confused with the software
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
440. Patrap
12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Another try..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
439. Patrap
12:08 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Fog..PensacolaLink..now..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
438. Patrap
12:05 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Vis down in Fla panhandele...Foggy for sure.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
437. Patrap
12:04 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
the GFSx 10 day..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
436. PensacolaDoug
12:03 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Foggy here in P'cola this morn.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
435. Patrap
12:01 PM GMT on October 18, 2006
Heres my Morning traffic cam..Interstate -10 and the Heavy traffic heading in to New Orleans from the westLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
434. Patrap
11:59 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
Not much out there to banter around this AM.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
433. C2News
11:56 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
wow.....it is slow today
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
431. mrpuertorico
10:58 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
buenos dias looks like 90l still won't die off 1000 mb on my weather station
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
430. Gatorx
10:41 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
Good morning all.
429. IKE
10:36 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
**yawn**
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
428. hurricane23
5:04 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
MichaelSTL i know there isn't great model support on this yet but have you seen the 12z Nogaps?
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13740
427. hurricane23
4:56 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
MichaelSTL to say nothing will form i think is a little premature as there is a good 2 1/2 weeks were we can get something going down there.The 18z GFS is still showing pretty favorable conditions shear wise across the caribbean threw 144hrs.If were going to get anymore development this season the western caribbean will be an area to moniter in my opinion. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13740
426. aquak9
4:55 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
well yeah, StL...that's what I said. Fronts oughtta move east insteada northeast. BUT...what it oughtta do, and what it DOES do, are different colored ponies.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
424. Patrap
4:49 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
gnight..tucks..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
423. Patrap
4:49 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
another wet puppy.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
422. Patrap
4:48 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
Here ya go aquak9..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
421. aquak9
4:43 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
With the afformentioned lower displacement of the sub-tropical jetstream, adjusting for furtherly true eastward vs norhtheastward movement of northerly troughs, as well as continued warm SST's in the gulf, a pup can only hope for a wet winter.

But what do I know?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
419. aquak9
4:40 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
...and Elvis is in the house. Oh I so deserve to be banned from this blog....hullo StL!

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
417. Patrap
4:38 AM GMT on October 18, 2006
my next invest..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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