Gulf of Mexico disturbance creating dangerous floods and tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2006

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The tropical disturbance (92L) that formed over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend has moved inland over Texas. The storm is affecting Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi much like a tropical storm would. An upper-level trough of low pressure is interacting with 92L and bringing very heavy rains, flooding, and tornadoes. The Houston NWS weather discussion from this morning calls this a "very dangerous heavy rain event". Four to six inches of rain have already fallen over some coastal regions, with another 3-5 inches expected today. With high winds and high tides over the Gulf, draining of rivers along the coast is being hampered, adding to the flooding problems. The disturbance is generating sustained winds of tropical storm force over the Gulf of Mexico. Buoy 42362 off the coast of Louisiana has seen sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts this morning. Numerous waterspouts and tornadoes have been spawned in some of the heavier thunderstorms. At 3am this morning, a tornado ripped into a boat yard in Leeville, LA, hurling boats around, flipping two mobile homes, and injuring four people. Tornadoes have also been reported in Lumberton, China, and Magnolia Beach in Texas this morning, with some damage reported. Radar in Lake Charles, LA is showing numerous severe thunderstorms with possible tornadoes this morning. Heavy rains in coastal Mississippi triggered floods this morning in Waveland, forcing evacuations in that city, which was mostly destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.


Figure 1. Total estimated rainfall from 92L measured by the Houston radar.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical disturbance just north of Puerto Rico (90L) is under 20 knots of wind shear, and should get torn apart by Tuesday. The disturbance will bring heavy thunderstorm activity to portions of Puerto Rico today. We'll have to watch the Gulf of Mexico this week, as shear is expected to remain low and more disturbances like 92L may develop.

I'll be back with an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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867. Patrap
1:30 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Up & running again..too
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
864. Gatorx
12:49 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
No running...bad ankle..lol
863. nash28
12:47 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Morning Gator. Yeah, I should be, unless I am running around the hospital working on something....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
862. sandcrab39565
12:47 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Sorry back again lost power for a bit
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
861. Gatorx
12:41 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Good morning all....Nash are you free at 10:00 for quiz time?
860. Patrap
12:32 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
How did SWLA make out?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
859. tornadodude
12:31 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
i gotta go to school so i'll "see" ya'll later
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
858. tornadodude
12:30 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Near Vincenes Indiana
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
857. SWLAStormFanatic
12:29 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
tornadodude...where are you located?
856. Patrap
12:27 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Samantha & Patrick Jr..Last October..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
855. tornadodude
12:26 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
here is the link for it.
3-day history.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
854. Patrap
12:25 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Heres a tidbit .THat org I mentioned,Boys Hope Girls Hope.My Daughter has been in it for 4& aHalf years now.She has a full scholarship to Dominican High. Shes Carrying a 3.8 avg.Shes my Life..and the light of our lil Family.She comes home every other weekend.SO that whole org is my Project in works.They wonderful.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
853. tornadodude
12:25 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
hi everyone. had a presure of 997.2 mmb last night as low moved over head.
MATT
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
852. Patrap
12:21 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Many dont know Teresa disabled...I keep that on the need to know ..Its rough..some days better than others.Family all think their land BArons..LOL...Could rent from my sister..But when her tenant moved .My brother and His wife moved in,got rid of their trailer.ANd they havent even Invited us to Dinner.Thats the way it goes..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
851. nash28
12:21 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
The NOGAPS appears to be the only model showing development later this week. It'll be interesting to see if any of the other majors pick up on this.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
850. Patrap
12:19 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Not unless I get a Lump sum...LOL..The rents are doubled from the storm..Wife is Disabled.So..am Kinda waiting to see what will happen.AM expecting settlement across the board on Fathers asbestos Lawsuit..now 4 years old.SOme small contractors have settled.But they close to settling the whole thing.Maybe,Kinda..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
849. sandcrab39565
12:17 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
I could lug a laptop but change flights 3 times dont want to lug it through the airports
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
848. sandcrab39565
12:16 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
I bet so got any prospects of getting something else yet?
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
847. Patrap
12:15 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Im sure it will.Have good trip.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
846. Patrap
12:15 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Dont mind being awakened ..this cracker box life is getting a lil weary...LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
845. sandcrab39565
12:14 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Pat I hope the snail mail gets there today will be out of touch till Monday after today.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
844. Patrap
12:14 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Power took a hit round 4:30am..but wasnt out long..The Tornado near LArose had me alil spooked..but it never hit near us...no damage reports on the Local CBS news here..so hopefully..we made out okay.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
843. sandcrab39565
12:13 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Not complaining though appreciate those guys in Slidell
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
842. sandcrab39565
12:12 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
LOL Pat I understand my 2 cell phones buzzing with weather alerts from Slidell
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
841. Patrap
12:12 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Jackson,New Orleans,Jackson,..New Orleans..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
840. Patrap
12:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Heres the night in short..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
839. Patrap
12:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
SAme here..was wild .NOAA radio chirping like a Spring Swallow..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
838. sandcrab39565
12:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Made my dog run it tha house.lol
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
837. sandcrab39565
12:09 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
It wwas worse than yesterday mornin here Pat hail wind serious rain lots of flooded roads
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
836. Patrap
12:08 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Hey sand..the storm killed my House phone..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
835. sandcrab39565
12:05 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
Well rough float in this am serious rain here. Good morning
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
834. Patrap
12:00 PM GMT on October 17, 2006
This trailer life is getting freaking old...Geez
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
833. nash28
11:55 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
Glad to still have you here man.

Now, let's see if Dr. Masters mentions the storm the NOGAPS has been showing consistently now for a few runs.

THAT could be the last gasp.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
832. Patrap
11:54 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
..a lil power outage..everything with a clock blinking in the trailer..we HAd 6 tornado alerts on the noaaa radio..so ..was busy up & down night.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
831. nash28
11:52 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
How did you hold up Pat? Everything ok?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
830. Patrap
11:42 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
I yi,yi...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
829. nash28
11:41 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
Morning everyone. Anyone see the 00z NOGAPS? Has a storm approaching the western tip of Cuba at the 144hr mark. They have been showing a storm for several runs now.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
828. Patrap
11:41 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
Its been a busy night ..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
827. Patrap
11:39 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
it was a booming line..but the worst is past us..here..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
826. Thundercloud01221991
11:33 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
Please all those who have not seen my web Site or who wish to see my web site come to it here
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
825. KRL
11:08 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
Wow, that's one big storm.

Storm
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
824. Thundercloud01221991
10:44 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
Hawaii has a Severe Thunderstorm watch up
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
823. mrpuertorico
10:24 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
buenos dias i am registering a 1001 mlb low with my weather station this morning
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
822. aquak9
8:54 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
Rain-drool...it's me here in Jax that's been begging for this stuff!! All year!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
818. auburn (Mod)
8:20 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
going to shut down...power is blinking...night rand
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50731
817. auburn (Mod)
8:18 AM GMT on October 17, 2006
This wind is unreal...
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50731

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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