Gulf of Mexico disturbance generating storng winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2006

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A non-tropical low pressure area is in the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of Mexico, about 250 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. This disturbance was designated 92L by NHC last night, and does have a small chance of developing into a tropical storm. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with this low has shown a modest increase this morning as the low has moved northwards along the coast at about 10 mph. A buoy 275 miles south-southeast of Sabine, Texas has seen winds near tropical depression strength this morning--30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. Unfortunately, this morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 92L, and we'll have to wait until 10:30pm EDT tonight for the next pass. Long-range Brownsville radar is showing considerable shower activity over South Texas and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico waters. However, there is no hint of banding features indicative of a low-level circulation, and no surface circulation is apparent on visible satellite loops of the Gulf of Mexico.

The disturbance is still under about 15 knots of shear, which is low enough to allow development into a tropical storm. The shear is forecast to remain at about 15 knots for the next two days, although there is much higher shear just to 92L's north that could create hostile conditions for development if the storm moves too quickly to the north. There may be some reduction of this shear, though, created by Tropical Depression Norman, which is making landfall on the other side of Mexico on the Pacific coast.

I'm not expecting 92L to become a tropical storm, but it should bring very heavy rains and winds gusts of tropical storm force to the coasts of Texas and Louisiana Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are not scheduled to visit 92L at all.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the Gulf of Mexico disturbance, 92L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical disturbance just north of Puerto Rico (90L) is under 30 knots of wind shear, and should get torn apart by Tuesday. However, the disturbance will bring heavy thunderstorm activity to portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today and Monday.

I'll be back with an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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507. Randrewl
2:22 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Man...pressure in Lake Charles is 1001.4mb this morning.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
506. Randrewl
2:20 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE CITY OF CAMERON.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PILE-UP WATER ALONG THE COAST. THE
ACTUAL TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES.

THE HIGH TIDE HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG COASTAL
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AT 4 TO
4.5 FEET.. HOWEVER...AS A RESULT OF THE EXTREME WINDS...THE HIGH TIDE
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. T

ACTUAL TIDES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.

IN CAMERON... WATER MAY COVER PARTS OF HIGHWAY 82 BETWEEN HOLLY
BEACH AND JOHNSON BAYOU... AND BETWEEN OAK GROVE AND GRAND
CHENIER. ALSO... WATER MAY COVER MAIN STREET IN THE CITY OF
CAMERON.

IN JEFFERSON... WATER MAY COVER PARTS OF HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN
SABINE PASS AND PORT ARTHUR.

IN ST MARY... WATER MAY CREEP INTO CYPREMORT POINT STATE PARK AND
BURNS POINT RECREATION AREA.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
505. Randrewl
2:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Geez....I can't even access the NWS now. Everything is overloaded.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
504. thelmores
2:14 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
"Posted By: Randrewl
Commentary?

Somewhere in there they said West!"

or was that westwood? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
503. Randrewl
2:09 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Commentary?

Somewhere in there they said West!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
502. thelmores
2:02 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Houston has over 10 inches of rain in the last 24hrs...... ouch!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
501. thelmores
2:01 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
hey Rand..... how bout some commentary with the forecast! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
500. Randrewl
1:59 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
719 AM AST MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...HAS DRIFTED THIS MORNING SOUTHWARD
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO AT LEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE IT MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES THIS MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTING
ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
REACHES ITS PEAK AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS COMBINE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE REGION.

Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
499. Melagoo
1:55 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
storm
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1555
498. thelmores
1:52 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
benrica, this area has been deemed "no development"..... who you gonna believe.... me or your lyin eyes! LOL

can you go fix the radar? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
497. benirica
1:47 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
What is up with that? There is no radar at all?
The news didnt even have a radar out... they just used the IR.
Thelmores, just someone be looking at it? Wasnt this area completely unlikely for any development?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
496. thelmores
1:47 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
"no invest required thel.."

you wanna expound on that a little? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
495. Patrap
1:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
no invest required thel..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
494. thelmores
1:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2006


t-storms continue to build around the COC......

This circ center was basically "naked" this morning, now look at it!

why is this of no interest to the navy.... no invest? and we have no radar out of PR! wonderful! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
493. Patrap
1:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Okay sand..c ya later
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
492. Melagoo
1:42 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
You guys are getting hammered!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1555
491. Melagoo
1:40 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
storm
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1555
490. HCW
1:40 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
I have my computer systems on backup so hopefully my radars stay up while I am at work. I have my video cam with me just in case we get in on the twister action later this afternoon. Stay safe and have a great day James

Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
489. thelmores
1:40 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
suxor's no radar in PR......

looks like a bad day in he bayou! Monroe beter stand by...... gonna get hammered!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
488. Randrewl
1:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Galveston.




Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
487. sandcrab39565
1:38 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Will check back in in a bit I have a meeting to attend.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
486. sandcrab39565
1:36 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Pat appears to be calming down at the momment
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
484. Patrap
1:36 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
sandcrab...status?...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
483. Patrap
1:34 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Damage & Injuries to Elderly couple.. Wife,Broken arm & wrist..Elderly husband shaken...Lafourche Parish from Tornado..Leeville without power....Thats above Grand Isle..2 Sunken Boats..Tides up 2.5 ft..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
481. Patrap
1:31 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Pressures Go Up..and Skies Part Clear..I command Thee!....Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
479. sandcrab39565
1:28 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Utah, I use to but now




I get direct message
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
478. Patrap
1:27 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
sdandcrab in this fray...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
477. Utah2Miami
1:26 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Does anyone here use the Weather Band Radios? I ask because I use mine all the time-

It's not a separate radio, but built right into my consols (ex: am/fm, CD, tape, WB-- all buttons located right next to each other).

The information seems pretty accurate (NOAA) and usually gives me details that I don't receive elsewhere. I was wondering if all the other weathergeeks out there are keen on this.

476. sandcrab39565
1:25 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
House alarms going off all over driving SO crazy. (wind ratteling the doors)
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
475. nash28
1:23 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Nevermind. Just slow response time:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
474. Patrap
1:23 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
lets get in a quick rubdown before the action gets really started..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
473. nash28
1:22 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Looks like my last post got lost in Cyberhell.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
472. nash28
1:21 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Tis ok Crab:-) You got enough going on. Those cloud tops must be up at least to 40,000 feet.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
471. sandcrab39565
1:22 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Got the trusty Ham Radio fellas working on weather spotting all around the county no confirmations of ant damage as of yet.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
470. sandcrab39565
1:20 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Oh sorry and good morning to yas to.lol
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
469. Patrap
1:20 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
good call...thats no place to be...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
468. nash28
1:19 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Not much here in Tampa guys.

Definately not as much excitement as you guys are getting in LA.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
467. sandcrab39565
1:19 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Actually Pat it is the alert to vacate the gantry cranes.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
466. Randrewl
1:19 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Hey Nash.

Yeah Crab...I was up early trying to post some info....
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
465. Patrap
1:18 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Wassup nash
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
464. Patrap
1:18 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
That cant be good crab
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
463. nash28
1:18 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Morning Rand, Crab, Pat....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
462. Patrap
1:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Yeah..what the Hill iz Blog maintence?..TWo guys with Hammers?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
461. Randrewl
1:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Toss out the anchors on that FEMA trailer Pat.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
460. sandcrab39565
1:16 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
I hear the high wind siren at Northrup Grumman sounding right now.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
459. Randrewl
1:16 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS BETWEEN A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N63W TO A 1009 MB LOW N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
20N60W N TO BEYOND 32N53W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 325 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31533
458. sandcrab39565
1:15 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Came to the office at 4:30am to get ready was unable to get on here.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
457. Patrap
1:14 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Hve noaa cranked up..hearing the warnings..Good luck sandcrab.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.