Gulf of Mexico disturbance 92L spins up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 AM GMT on October 15, 2006

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A non-tropical low pressure area has developed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of Mexico, about 300 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. This disturbance has been designated "92L" by NHC this evening, and does have a small chance of developing into a tropical storm. If it does develop, it would likely move north-northeast and strike the coast of Texas or Louisiana on Monday or Tuesday. The pressure has fallen significantly at Tuxpan, Mexico, and was 1005 mb at 7pm EDT. Winds over the waters just offshore the Mexican coast were as high as 40-50 mph in this morning's QuikSCAT pass, but were only 15-20 mph in this evening's 8:11pm EDT pass. A new QuikSCAT pass is due at 10am EDT Sunday. The satellite appearance of 92L has degraded markedly in the past few hours, with most of the heavy thunderstorm activity moving far east away from the center. There is very little shower activity associated with 92L visible on long-range Brownsville radar this evening. Unfortunately, the Mexican radar for this region has been down since September 3.

The disturbance is under about 15 knots of shear this evening, which is low enough to allow development into a tropical storm. However, the storm is moving towards an area of much higher shear (40 knots!), and this higher shear may cause significant trouble for the disturbance. Shear is forecast to drop significantly in the Gulf beginning Monday, so there may be a window of opportunity that day for 92L to grow into a tropical storm. I'm really not expecting this to become a tropical storm, but if it does, it would likely not have time to grow to more than a 50-mph storm.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the Gulf of Mexico disturbance, 92L.

I'll ba back with an update late Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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442. Ewy1971
12:18 PM GMT on October 11, 2010
It is important that all elderly relatives are able to keep in contact where ever they are, especially if they are isolated. a big button communication device is essential
Member Since: October 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
441. boobless
4:29 PM GMT on August 21, 2007
doh!!!
440. boobless
4:27 PM GMT on August 21, 2007
Didn't check to see if if a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin crossed into the Eastern Pacific and regained Hurricane status.

Probably several examples of an Atlantic Basin Hurricane crossing over but not ever achieving Hurricane status

From the NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/FAQ/Tropical_Cyclone_Names.php

5. What happens to the name of the tropical cyclone if it moves from the Atlantic regions to the Northeast Pacific, or vice versa ?

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area. This last occurred in July 1996 when Atlantic basin Hurricane Cesar moved across Central America and was renamed Northeast Pacific basin Hurricane Douglas. The last time that a Northeast Pacific system moved into the Atlantic basin was in June 1989 when Cosme became Allison.

These rules have now changed and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the National Hurricane Center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again.

439. WPBHurricane05
4:22 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
wpbhurricane05 do you live in florida

yes
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
438. ryang
4:08 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
wpbhurricane05 do you live in florida
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12456
437. IKE
4:07 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
New blog up...nothing new.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
436. ryang
4:03 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
12.00 gone and he still has not updated
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12456
435. WPBHurricane05
4:03 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
seems like this October may be a warm one in South Florida
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
434. BahaHurican
4:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Seems like it has been either famine or flood in TX all year. When there IS any rain, it's like torrents all at once.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22970
433. Patrap
4:00 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
The warm front backing up ahead of the system shows up well on the Regional longe-range.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
432. BahaHurican
3:59 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Yeah, WPB, in the Summer u get our weather; in the winter, we get yours . . . LOL

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22970
431. Melagoo
3:59 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
it's going up to 17C by Wednesday up here
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1610
430. WPBHurricane05
3:55 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Baha, same here is South Florida
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
429. suenommi
3:54 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
rain rain rain thats all twc sayin every update. Wheres the doc! somebody get me a doctor!
428. Patrap
3:54 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Green Canyon ,GOM...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
427. BahaHurican
3:53 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Poor Buffalo area,

All that snow and no snowmen pics to show for it . . .

lol

BTW, the local weatherman last night said they expect to see the cold fronts dropping through here every 3-4 days now, bringing progressively cooler temps every time. Doesn't sound like they expect more in the way of tropical development this year either . . .

Not that the cool off is actually being FELT, since daytime temps are still in the upper 80s here. Even at night it's still only dipping to lower 70s. The difference is in the humidity and the increased winds (due to High pressure over eastern US right now and cold front passing through today).

Anyway, we could use some cooler air here . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22970
426. Patrap
3:50 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Heres the area coming ashore first.Its alil drier inland here..but getting juicer by the minute.The event begins .Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
425. caneman
3:47 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Death to all Gulf of Mexico blobs!
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
424. WPBHurricane05
3:48 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
one day I was checking Key Wests observations, the guy wrote down it was snowing, it was 78*, i think they need new help
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
423. Patrap
3:47 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Winds increasing along the coastal Louisiana waters as the first gush of moisture arrives..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
422. Patrap
3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
They look like Kin...too
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
421. Patrap
3:44 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Whats spookie is that I posted this pic on my blog a few hours b-4 the Docs..LOL!Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
420. IKE
3:44 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Marine weather from Mobile, AL as of 10 am this morning.."Marine...significant changes needed on the marine update this
morning. Have increased wind speeds in all zones west/ small craft
conditions now from 0 to 60 nm. Currently have scec in Mobile Bay
and expect that to be upgraded this afternoon. Wind speeds will
increase through tonight and on Monday to 25 to 30 knots with gusts
to gale force possible.
Currently not anticipating a Gale
Warning...but conditions will have to be monitored. Seas will range
from 7 to 11 across the coastal waters by late tonight and on Monday.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
419. Patrap
3:42 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Blondie!....Wah..wah...wahhhhh!.....Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
418. Hellsniper223
3:42 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
You can pick your friends at work and you can take a poo at work... But you can't chase your friends around at work with a piece of poo...
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
417. WPBHurricane05
3:42 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
i was kind of hopeing the dr. would bring this pic back Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
416. WPBHurricane05
3:40 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
all we need is ron with the moron model
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
415. WPBHurricane05
3:39 PM GMT on October 15, 2006


getting kind of cold in the GOM
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
414. ryang
3:36 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
good job IKE
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12456
413. Patrap
3:35 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
.Well..do ya ?..Punk!..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
412. Patrap
3:35 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Troll invest terror tool..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
411. ryang
3:33 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
dr.m is taking long to blog
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12456
410. Patrap
3:33 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Good neverfollow..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
409. PensacolaDoug
3:32 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
It WAS peaceful in here for a while.
Couldn't last forever.....sigh...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 792
408. neverfollow
3:31 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Pat, Good advice. However, will keep the shovel nearby.
407. IKE
3:30 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on October 15, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad low pressure area centered along
the coast of Mexico just north of Tampico. Due to strong
upper-level winds and proximity to land...tropical cyclone
development does not appear likely as the system moves northward at
about 10 mph. However...the combination of this low and a high
pressure system over the eastern United States could produce gusty
winds and heavy rains over portions of northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas during the next day or two.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
406. Patrap
3:30 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
The oil industry aint worried yet, NO evacs ordered as far as I can tell
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
405. Patrap
3:29 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
BOC buoy..sw of the system..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
404. suenommi
3:29 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Is the gulf system affecting oil prices?will it?
403. Patrap
3:28 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Troll invest..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
402. IKE
3:27 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
31 knot wind gust at the BOC buoy.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
401. sandcrab39565
3:27 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Pat the pressure did not get to low but it shows circulation at that bouy
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
400. WPBHurricane05
3:27 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
ewww, quickscat showed a brown color thingy, could it be...........a 35kt wind vector??????
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
399. Patrap
3:27 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
The ssts are 3.5 over 80F....Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
397. Patrap
3:26 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Dewpoint Juicy...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
396. WPBHurricane05
3:25 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Nelly....check your mail
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
395. Melagoo
3:25 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
In that water I think anything could happen
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1610
394. Patrap
3:24 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
THe newest Buoy data..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
393. neverfollow
3:22 PM GMT on October 15, 2006
Nelly, I think I speak for most here. KEEP YOUR POLITICS OUT!

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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