A quiet weekend for the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on October 13, 2006

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The disturbance just north of Puerto Rico (90L) has been torn apart by wind shear and is no longer a threat to develop. Tropical Depression 4-C that was headed towards Hawaii has been torn apart by wind shear and is no longer a threat to the islands. An area of disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico is under 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop through Sunday. By Monday, however, shear is expected to drop significantly in the Gulf, and we will have to watch this area for development.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models continue to show the possibility of a tropical storm forming along the Pacific coast of Mexico early next week, possibly from the remains of Tropical Storm Olivia.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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660. stormchasher
7:26 PM GMT on June 09, 2007
Sorry MP........
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
658. stormchasher
9:39 PM GMT on June 05, 2007
Wow thats what happens when your board.......
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
657. stormchasher
9:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2006
Link
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
656. stormy3
2:30 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Slinky, Dr. M has new blog up for 92L.
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
655. SLINKY
2:18 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
OK HCW,

I guess the NHC has it all wrong and you are right. They just don't see want you wish for.



Link
Member Since: September 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
654. 1900hurricane
2:18 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
653. stormy3
2:17 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
new blog up!
Member Since: September 3, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
652. 1900hurricane
2:14 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
I HAVE UPDATED MY BLOG!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
651. dnalia
2:01 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
I am so sick and tired of this hot weather. It's OCTOBER, for pity's sake. It shouldn't be in the 90's this time of year.

We need a cold front to come through like we had last year post-Wilma.
650. HCW
1:59 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
model runs for 92L are up. Have a good weekened


Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
649. CatzandDogz
1:42 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Hi, newbie here! I see we have an invest 92L now acording to the Navy site. I'm traveling next week and wanted to here some opinions...IF ....it were to form into anything what would be the most likely path.
648. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:32 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
the convection has weakened a little in the 1h 15min period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46596
647. HCW
1:28 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
INVEST 92L now is up GOM


Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
646. N3EG
1:25 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Hellsniper223 - it'll be a cat 4 all right...on the Homer-Simpson scale...
Member Since: April 23, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 236
645. HCW
1:21 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
There is some light west shear over it but alot less than what's over invest 90L. It's certainly possible that we could see a tropical system out of this . Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
644. SLINKY
1:15 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Listen HCW, I know I would waste my time trying to convince you otherwise. But I am seeing a lot of shear from the west already starting to push away the cloud tops based on the satellite loops I am seeing.
Member Since: September 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
643. Tazmanian
1:13 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
: HCW am with you all the way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
642. Tazmanian
1:10 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
i dont like looking at that map it dos not telll the oh thing on whats going on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
641. HCW
1:09 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
The shear is way away from our low pressure and it has a chance to become a TD over the next 24 hours.
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
640. Tazmanian
1:07 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
HCW am with you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
639. SLINKY
1:07 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
To HCW and all others that can't find the wind shear the NHC is talking about, see the attached link:

Link
Member Since: September 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
638. HCW
1:02 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
I don't see the high shear that the NHC keeps talking about.


Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
637. HCW
1:00 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
From Wxman 57 on khou

wxman57



Joined: 23 Apr 2005
Posts: 609
Location: Houston
Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 10:52 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is the kind of system that can immediately be upgraded to a TS. Note that some of the buoys north of the system are reporting near TS-force winds this afternoon. But this will NOT be a wind threat for inland areas across SE TX or south LA. It's a rainfall event for inland areas. Offshore, however, winds could gust to 60-70 kts in squalls.


Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
636. tornadodude
12:49 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
anyone here?
lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
635. Tazmanian
12:49 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
i dont no about any of you but i am keeping my eye on this thing tonight and see if this can last overe night if it can it could be are next 92L and dr m did say the the wind shaer could drop vary low by monday this may have a ch at being are next 92L but whats see how it dos overe night


you can say what you want to say on this blod


but this to tell you i am watch this blod as wind shaer is forcast to drop!
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
634. SATxKat
12:38 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Kyle,

I wan't too concerned with the aviation since I plan on staying firmly on the ground lol.

I was referring to terms like warm advection pattern, short wave, pws etc. Our local mets have been saying for several days that we could have heavy rains from the combo of these systems.

633. SLINKY
12:38 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
A Tropical Depression in the Gulf! The NHC has it all wrong!"

OK back to reality. Yes a blob of tropical moisture in the SW Gulf. High wind shear across the Northern Gulf. Tropical moisture into high wind shear as it it pulled north by a strong upper level trough moving into west Texas.

A strong low-level jet (60-80 knots) will develop over East Texas and western Lousiana Sunday night/Monday morning as the upper level trough pushes eastward and tightens the pressure gradient. Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds is likely with very heavy rains across Texas and Lousiana as the tropical moisture is pulled northward ahead of the trough.

No tropical depression, no tropical storm, no anything. By the way did anyone notice that the cloud tops over the tropical blob are starting to warm up (could they be weakening as they get sheared to the east?)

OK, back to the fantasy world.
Member Since: September 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
632. tornadodude
12:29 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 142117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA APPEARS TO BE FORMING JUST EAST OF TUXPAN
MEXICO...HOWEVER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL...AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
631. tornadodude
12:25 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
with nwd moving storms, there must be some circulation.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
630. kylejourdan2006
12:25 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
SAT - If you're referring to the aviation section, VFR is "visual flight rules", meaning that the pilots can see the ground or that they have clear space above the clouds, and MVFR is "minimal visual flight rules", meaning that clouds may cause limited visibility for pilots.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
629. tornadodude
12:24 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
here is latest severe outlook for Tx coast from NWS:...LOWER TX COAST...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TX AS A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LOW ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SWRN STATES
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NNEWD
ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS SOUTH TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATE TONIGHT SHOWING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING ABOUT 25
KT ACROSS SOUTH TX. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
F MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT
MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
628. Hellsniper223
12:24 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Eye... it'll be a cat 4 by monday.
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
627. kylejourdan2006
12:21 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
That's basically saying that it's going to rain heavy, with possible severe storms, in southern Texas.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
626. eye
12:21 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
kyle, good to see that you are not predicting a major....lol
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
625. kylejourdan2006
12:19 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
You're right eye - Dr. Masters has been saying that, but this doesn't look really non-tropical. I think the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico have somewhat helped it acquire a few tropical characteristics - but like 90L, I think this is just a hype of excitement, and nothing but a rain event.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
624. SATxKat
12:19 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
I don't know what all the terms mean, but this is what the local NWS mets are saying.


FXUS64 KEWX 142359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
659 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS
WHERE RAIN IS FALLING. IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFT 04-06Z. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006)

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL AVERAGE THEM. AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD
OF SHORT-WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM MEXICO AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LIFT STRENGTHENS. PWS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2
AND 2.5 INCHES LEADING TO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. THE EVOLUTION OF
A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW AND WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO KEEPING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, HOWEVER EXPECT WATCH WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUED FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. SHOULD WARM
FRONT MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, SEVERE STORMS MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NEAREST THE COASTAL PLAINS,
ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. RAINS WILL GENERALLY END
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH
LEAVES A SHEAR AXIS AND POSSIBLY A DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HALF
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF MAV/MEX GUIDANCE, EXCEPT WENT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY DUE SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
623. eye
12:17 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
hasnt the Dr been mentioning something about a non tropical low developing for days now, not shocking that now a non tropical low might be forming.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
622. tornadodude
12:17 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
if there is strong westerly shear, then why is it banding, even some in the western side?
link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
621. kylejourdan2006
12:16 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Thanks 23 - That really isn't much different than the 2:05pm one, and they really aren't much help for any development (possible or not), because they normally just copy what the last outlook says. Nonetheless, it's better than nothing! :)
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
620. Miamiweather
12:16 AM GMT on October 15, 2006


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 24W S OF
16N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 21W-26W.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 23N MOVING W
10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 74W-76W MAINLY DUE TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO TO
THE E PACIFIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
CONFINED TO INLAND MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
95W-100W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 8N40W 10N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 11W-14W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 23N86W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 24N98W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
91W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT BY SUNDAY
EVENING FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO MOVE N TO THE LOUISIANA
COAST AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
619. hurricane23
12:16 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Just adding this...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO TO
THE E PACIFIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
CONFINED TO INLAND MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
95W-100W.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
618. weatherguy03
12:15 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Thank you Nash for your fine analysis. Someone who really knows his tropical weather. Good job man!! You will make FSU proud. Eventhough I am a Gator!!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
617. eye
12:14 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
nash, better get use to staying up past 9pm with college around the corner. Especially with MEA major, basically engineering but harder.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
616. kylejourdan2006
12:14 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Hmm...I've just been looking around, and I don't see much that supports that this low is "non-tropical in nature". I respect nash's opinions very much, but not everyone's perfect!
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
615. hurricane23
12:14 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
8:05PM Discussion...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 23N86W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 24N98W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
91W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT BY SUNDAY
EVENING FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO MOVE N TO THE LOUISIANA
COAST AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
614. Patrap
12:13 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Help!...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129446
613. hurricane23
12:12 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
kylejourdan2006 naked swirl there...
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
612. nash28
12:12 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Taz- I think the NHC has this one down pretty well my friend. First, the conditions are brutal. Yes, something non-tropical may survive (hybrid system) but even if it does, it will be nothing to get worked up over.

If this were July, we'd have issues. We're in mid October, and unlike last year, our synoptic pattern is more like December.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
611. kylejourdan2006
12:12 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Has anyone got the 8:05pm discussion yet?
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
610. sandcrab39565
12:11 AM GMT on October 15, 2006
Later Gator
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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