Puerto Rico disturbance fizzles; Hawaii disturbance slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on October 12, 2006

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An area of disturbed weather (90L) over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning and is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next two days. Wind shear is a low 10 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next two or three days, so the disturbance does still have a chance to develop by Sunday. However, there is quite a bit of dry air to the west, which may distrupt any heavy thunderstorm activity that tries to form. Wind shear is expected to rise significantly beginning on Sunday, and the long term prospects for 90L to become a tropical storm in the Caribbean are low.

Puerto Rico radar shows only disorganized thunderstorm activity at present. Winds in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands have been unspectacular so far today--no more than 15 mph at St. Kitts, St. Maartin, and Antigua. The morning pass of the QuikSCAT satellite missed 90L; we'll have to wait until about 9pm EDT tonight for the next pass. Satellite imagery and surface reports show that no surface circulation exists.

Most of the computer models forecast a track over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands the next two days, with the disturbance moving over Puerto Rico Saturday morning and the Dominican Republic on Saturday night. The system is being drawn northwest by a strong trough of low pressure passing to the north of the islands. However, it appears that this trough is not strong enough to pull 90L out to sea, and high pressure should build in and force the storm westward by Sunday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Hawaii
Residents of Hawaii should continue to watch an area of disturbed weather (97C) near 9N, 166W, about 1000 miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 12:56am EDT this morning showed a closed surface circulation, and some wind barbs of 40-45 mph to the south of the center. The thunderstorm activity has gotten a little better organized today. Wind shear has remained about 15 knots today, which is low enough to allow some continued slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 29C, and there is a very deep pool of warm water underneath to fuel intensification. The last two runs of the GFDL model have predicted that 97C will become a tropical storm that could threaten Hawaii by Tuesday.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "97C".

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models continue to show the possibility of a low pressure system forming in the Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast early next week. This low will probably be non-tropical, though. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to develop along the Pacific coast of Mexico by Monday and move northwest towards Baja. Baja does not need to worry about Tropical Depression Olivia, which is expected to dissipate Friday before reaching Baja.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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221. Patrap
1:43 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Cue the jaws music...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
220. Randrewl
1:40 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Navy has 90L now at 1008mb..still 25kts.

Yeah Thel...once it starts going it should move along.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31557
219. thelmores
1:37 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
90L appears to be headed off to the ssw at a pretty good clip.......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
218. ProgressivePulse
1:30 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
That GFDL is very interesting indeed! Still a pretty well defined circulation with 90L. Anything is possible until it is not possible anymore. On a light note, from Dr. Masters Blog.

However, there is quite a bit of dry air to the west, which may distrupt any heavy thunderstorm activity that tries to form. Wind shear is expected to rise significantly beginning on Sunday, and the long term prospects for 90L to become a tropical storm in the Caribbean are low.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
217. Patrap
1:22 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
The machine still cranking ..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
216. Patrap
1:20 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
That was Quite a row of Bands sw to NE..right on into yall..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
215. Patrap
1:19 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Hey wad..I posted the snow in my Weekend fri blog..but went to Bed when yall had 6inches..and Cantore was Showing his Thundersnow clip from 10yrs ago on the TWC when He saw the Buffalo Thundersnow report...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
214. Patrap
1:17 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
That flow aint going to let nothing threaten fromthat area...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
213. wadcane
1:17 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Good morning ALL
Welcome to Buffalo. Only got 13 inches last night. Expect around 30 inches before all done. Had some thunder and lightning with the snow. They closed the roads and many are without power. Have a fun day. No school for the kids.
212. Patrap
1:17 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Data skewed...Thel..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
211. thelmores
1:16 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
GFDL


nothing to fear, per say, but interesting non the less......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
210. Randrewl
1:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
The BAMM's and the GFDL are all in the SW direction. I don't see it getting picked up and whatever is left should be pushed SW.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31557
209. Patrap
1:14 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
LINKO..for Friday am...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
208. thelmores
1:12 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
maybe i didnt need permission..... just validation! LOL

i honestly didnt believe the last couple runs of the gfdl on 90L..... but i am starting to.... guess the apparent ssw moion got my attention!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
207. mrpuertorico
1:10 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
you think so thelmores interesting yes perhaps we should watch
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
206. Randrewl
1:09 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
You don't need permission Thel.
I'm going to watch a while longer also.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31557
205. thelmores
1:07 PM GMT on October 13, 2006


if its ok..... think i'll watch 90L, or remnants of 90L, just a little longer! ;)

it appears to me to be following the last gfdl run, and appears headed ssw, and may attempt to enter the carribean again......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
204. Patrap
1:03 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
I kissed my Black cat,Opened the 12ft ladder..drank my tea under it...broke a FEMA mirror in the Trailer..and Mooned a Cop already this am..Im feeling lucky today..LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
203. Gatorx
12:55 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Good morning everyone...looks like nothing going on...just a little tease yesterday. Well only 9 more months until hurricane season!
202. nash28
12:55 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Actually, the models are done with 90L. It's finished.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
201. HCW
12:54 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Looks like a 50% split in the models with 90L . Have a great day :)


Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
200. Patrap
12:47 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Yer Welcome..and the CONUS is chilly..LOL..and very cloud free..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
199. Miamiweather
12:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
thanks patrap
198. Patrap
12:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
The Atlantic Basin ..last 12hrs...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
197. Patrap
12:45 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
There is no Atlantic Invest at this time...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
196. Miamiweather
12:37 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Good morning just checking on the status of 90L?
195. Patrap
12:34 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
nola.com...Katrina Page..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
194. thelmores
12:22 PM GMT on October 13, 2006


now i'm jonesing! LOL

HEY, THAT ALMOST LOOKS IKE A FISH STORM!



LOL

well, better get some work done! :) DON'T FEED THE FISH! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
193. Patrap
12:21 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Gm Rand
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
192. Patrap
12:20 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
The front has finally rained on thru here..And the Kids were in my trailer for 15 minutes waiting on their Bus..Some were soaked..their Bustop on my Corner...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
191. Randrewl
12:16 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
And good morning all.


Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31557
190. thelmores
12:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2006


frail lookin..... but still there! :)

maybe i am jonesing! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
189. Patrap
12:08 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
90L dosnt exist anymore..awwwwwwww!..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
188. Patrap
12:07 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
The other side still Linkcranking them out..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
187. Patrap
12:05 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Heres the Big Pic..last 12hrLink.in IR enhanced..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
186. nash28
12:04 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Nah, no jonesing. Bored stiff with the season, but no jonesing.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
185. Patrap
12:03 PM GMT on October 13, 2006
Yall Jonesing on a swirlie?..Heres the front passing thru here..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
184. thelmores
11:59 AM GMT on October 13, 2006


Stormw, see what you mean now.... seems to be some spin there, but little convection..... it would seem that this is a surface feature, and not UL..... but i am basing that strictly on location.....

guess we'll have to see ifany convection fires up! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
183. mrpuertorico
11:57 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
yeah the trough killed 90l i think presure is slowly rising now it now at 1004 you can see my weather station its adress is kprsanju7
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
182. mrpuertorico
11:55 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
nah 90l went poof right at pr front door (typical) models won't work no more
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
181. thelmores
11:52 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
mrpuertorico, looks like there may be a surface trough in your area..... which may help explain your lower pressure......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
180. nash28
11:48 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
Good morning everyone.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
179. thelmores
11:40 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
mornin everybody! :)



06z gfs 66hrs out......

somebody tell ST to batten down the hatch! LOL

man, seems the models are confused on 90L.... looks like an octopus! LOL

BAMD is interesting..... having 90L heading almost due south! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
178. mrpuertorico
11:08 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
pressure is low on the island today my station is reading a 1003 mlb low right now
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
176. mrpuertorico
10:32 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
well it looks like puerto rico dodges bad weather like ussual it seems bad weather always seems to avoid or disapate everytime it gets close to pr
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
173. ScienceCop
9:19 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:37 AM GMT on October 13, 2006.
ScienceCop The Pacfic was very active this year with some incredible systems like Ioke, Daniel, John making landfall in Baha and most recently Xansane slamming into vietnam.But i meant overall conditions across the atlantic basin.

I sent you 2 links to your email..Let me know what you think.thanks Adrian


Thanks, 23. I'm looking at them now.

They bring back memories. I saved 1,548 satellite pictures from NOAA on WILMA. I can't figure out what I did with the Katrina pics -- must have copied them off to CDROM to free up disk space, have to look around for them.

I was just rummaging around and found amazing pictures of a train of four cyclones in the EPAC on September 18th, 2005: Cat-2 Jova, Cat-3 Kenneth, TS Lidia, and TS Max. This was on the same day that Rita formed and Philippe graduated to Hurricane strength. I forgot all about those.

I found about 2,000 images of IVAN, and about 4,000 more unclassified images after IVAN.

In 2006 I finally got an organized system by date and view. This collection numbers about 80,000 with assorted duplications probably bringing it down to something like 65,000 images. Naturally that includes a lot of hours of GMEX, for example, with absolutely nothing going on. Unless there is action happening, I collect only the rainbow pix, but when something is developing I add more other varieties, floaters,.

I have serious holes in the data, so I am looking for an archives of the NOAA images, if you or anybody knows one.

I program my computer to download 500 to 800 satellite pictures every day in the background. On dialup I have to be selective about what I collect, otherwise I would down them all on general principles. Currently I have 9 gigabytes of 2006 on hard drive. Sometimes I have to let it run all night long to get all that I want to get. Right now I am pulling down WPAC & WCPAC images of SOULIK over the past couple of days in AVN, FT, IR4, RB, RGB & WV.

Something is going to pop in EPAC & CPAC -- it's boiling.
172. hurricane23
7:37 AM GMT on October 13, 2006
ScienceCop The Pacfic was very active this year with some incredible systems like Ioke, Daniel, John making landfall in Baha and most recently Xansane slamming into vietnam.But i meant overall conditions across the atlantic basin.

I sent you 2 links to your email..Let me know what you think.thanks Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.