Caribbean disturbance a threat to Puerto Rico; Hawaii needs to keep an eye on the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 12, 2006

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An area of disturbed weather (90L) over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands expanded significantly in size overnight, but has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. Wind shear is 10 knots over the disturbance, and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next two or three days. Water temperatures are about 29 degrees C, which is plenty warm for a tropical cyclone. There is quite a bit of dry air to the west, which may distrupt any heavy thunderstorm activity that tries to form. Martinique radar shows considerable thunderstorm activity, but the activity is pretty disorganized at present. Winds in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands have been unspectacular so far today--no more than 15 mph at St. Kitts, St. Maartin, and Antigua. The morning pass of the QuikSCAT satellite missed 90L; we'll have to wait until about 9pm EDT tonight for the next pass. It is difficult to tell from satellite imagery or surface reports if 90L has a surface circulation. Due to the collapse of heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, it now appears unlikely 90L will become a tropical depression in the next two days.

Most of the computer models forecast a track over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands the next two days, with the disturbance moving over Puerto Rico Saturday morning and the Dominican Republic on Saturday night. The system is being drawn northwest by a strong trough of low pressure passing to the north of the islands. However, it appears that this trough is not strong enough to pull 90L out to sea, and high pressure should build in and force the storm westward by Sunday. The storm still has a chance to become a tropical depression early next week if it can avoid Hispaniola. However, wind shear is expected to rise over the Caribbean beginning on Sunday, and this may put an end to the threat.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Hawaii
Residents of Hawaii should continue to watch an area of disturbed weather (97C) near 9N, 166W, about 1000 miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 12:56am EDT this morning showed a closed surface circulation, and some wind barbs of 40-45 mph to the south of the center. The thunderstorm activity has gotten more intense over the past day, but is still disorganized. Wind shear has increased to about 15 knots today, but this is still low enough to allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 29C, and there is a very deep pool of warm water underneath to fuel intensification. Both the GFDL and NOGAPS models forecast that 97C will become a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane that will threaten the Hawaiian Islands on Monday night or Tuesday.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "97C".

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models continue to show the possibility of a low pressure system forming in the Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast early next week. This low will probably be non-tropical, though. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to develop along the Pacific coast of Mexico by Monday and move northwest towards Baja. Baja does not need to worry about Tropical Depression Olivia, which is expected to dissipate Friday before reaching Baja.

I'll have an update later today if 90L or 97C show significant change.

Jeff Masters

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309. MTJax
9:04 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
The early LOW from Texas in the 36 hour range was canceled already. I think the model listed has old data because the forcast charts have dropped it. Gonna get Wet in Texas but the real BB appears in the GOM by TX next Thusday at 1800z with a 1004 LOW.
308. Skyepony (Mod)
8:59 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
1/2 a windsat pass of 90L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
307. CaneAddict17
8:57 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Jeff Masters has posted a new blog guys.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 156
306. Patrap
8:53 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Its On the NAVY page!..It has a LLC!..Its trending west!...CAn I have the FSU page?...LOL...The situ is wet for the Northern GOM..thru Weds,...not just a Low...but needed rain for Many ...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
305. 0741
8:52 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
it raining here in miami
304. Patrap
8:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Beats throwing around Swirlies in the open.Atlantic.LOL..accept a real forecast challenge..somebody!..OMG,..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
303. nash28
8:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Nah, wasn't mean at all. I get asked this question DAILY, as a good natured ribbing for me leaving the company when I go to Tallahassee.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
302. 0741
8:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
we all love shear
301. Patrap
8:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Converstion in the Docs blog..begs to differ...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
300. nash28
8:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Well Pat, the shear will have to disappear like a fart in the wind for that hybrid system to have any serious impact.

But I feel ya. Could be a nasty day for someone...
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
299. Patrap
8:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Ok Michael..we shall c..LOL..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
298. saddlegait
8:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
nash - that was mean! They were giving you credit for knowing something and trying to make you feel good and you sliced them in two-shame on yourself!
297. Patrap
8:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Heres a better view..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
296. robinvtx
8:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
saddlegait, i dont ever hear that one from my 18yr BFF, come email me and tell me what it is. have you heard friends w/benefits yet??
295. nash28
8:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
I know the lack of storms to track this year has gotten me in a chippy mood. Today, one of my co-workers came to me and asked, "what's going on out there weatherman???"

I responded.... "Go outside and look!"
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
294. MichaelSTL
8:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
The next system is to form ..Western GOm..but ya didnt hear it from me...

I really doubt that anything will be able to form in the GOM, much less move into it and not be shredded by shear. Right now, the Caribbean is the most favorable area in the Atlantic and forecast to become more favorable. Link
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
293. Patrap
8:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Neither was this Nash and it did 3 billion in damage in March 03..LOLLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
292. 0741
8:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
we all kiss l90 byby and hurricane season the shear have taking over FOR GOOD
291. Patrap
8:46 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Lets go over it again..LOL..Heres the Global view...Pay Attention!..Sit Down in Back..!Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
290. nash28
8:46 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Yes we did Pat! We have heard it from you:-)

Looks to be non-tropical.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
288. nash28
8:45 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Sorry Rand, been busier than I like to be at work the last few weeks. Haven't been able to geek out all day like I prefer to do:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
287. nash28
8:45 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Huh 0741????
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
286. 0741
8:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
i donot think it did not make it so by by l90!!!!!!!!!
284. Patrap
8:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
The next system is to form ..Western GOm..but ya didnt hear it from me...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
283. nash28
8:43 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Well, I don't know why they are bothering to issue a TCF on this system when it is going to have its ass handed to it on several wooden hooking spoons from the shear.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
282. Patrap
8:43 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Yall Jonesing..BAd like...LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
281. ProgressivePulse
8:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Barely but! Barely is good enough!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
280. Patrap
8:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
THats posted for SHips..and Traffic...sea type..thats all..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
279. CybrTeddy
8:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
90L may just go out to sea
or could do a Frances or a jeanne
if it follows the TCFA track then gas prices
up insurance bills up destructon up
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
278. ProgressivePulse
8:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
The box does include the area where 90L reformed!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
277. JUSTRICK
8:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
cool...I can see my house .
276. Patrap
8:40 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
U missed my 8:31gmt post Micheal..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
275. 0741
8:40 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
their not thing left of 90l
274. nash28
8:40 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Ok, apparently we have a TCF in place for 90L.

Odd.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
273. Patrap
8:40 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Here it is Rick..check out Sunday..GAMEDAY!...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
272. MichaelSTL
8:39 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Cyber is right about a TCFA:


Click for larger image

Interestingly, 90L has reformed to the north of Puetro Rico:

Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
271. Patrap
8:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
never mind..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
270. nash28
8:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
So, how sickly is 90L now?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
269. CybrTeddy
8:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
oh when u say
gittouttahere
plz uses spaces and real words
besides i am in collage 19 getting a degree in weather and astronomy and by the way u r typing
you are the normal troll walching along i dont want
your opinion HobeSoundShudders i want good
opinions like from hurricane23 or MichealSTL
and a lot of other people not you
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
268. Patrap
8:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Well we can drive to Shreverport Rick..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
267. Patrap
8:35 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
The Big Pic...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
266. CybrTeddy
8:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
HobeSoundShudders
PS u are soppost to put a post that u r commiting on in Italics
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
265. saddlegait
8:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Yeah - to quote my 14 year old - BFF! That's one I hear a lot these days. Took me a while to figure it out. Kids talk in acronyms these days - sometimes they're hard to understand.
264. JUSTRICK
8:32 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
I think you have been fibbin pat....just got out of the truck..and the thingy/dingy said it was 91.....
263. CybrTeddy
8:32 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
HobeSoundShudders

actual when a track comes up on the screen
when u click 90L on the NRL it shows a track
its done it with
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
FLorence
Gordon
Helene
Issac
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
262. Utah2Miami
8:32 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
at least we have each other saddle...
261. Patrap
8:31 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Heres all the INVEST...enjoy..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
259. HobeSoundShudders
8:28 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
re" CybrTeddy at 8:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

tropical cyclone formation alert on 90L"

gittouttahere......are we on candid camera or WHAT......jo

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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