New disturbance 90L entering the Caribbean; Hawaii needs to watch 97C

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on October 11, 2006

Share this Blog
4
+

A small area of disturbed weather with heavy thunderstorm activity and an apparent surface circulation (90L) is centered near the island of Barbados this morning. A buoy about 150 miles northeast of the center of 90L recorded sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts last night. Winds from the QuikSCAT satellite pass from 5:45am EDT this morning showed winds as high as 30 mph. QuikSCAT also showed what may be a closed circulation at the surface. Winds at Barbados shifted to westerly this morning at 8am AST, confirming that 90L probably has a surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little thunderstorm activity so far, but this should increase this afternoon as 90L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands and the heavier showers come in range of the radar. Winds so far today in Martinique have been below 10 mph.

In the disturbance's favor are a moist environment, low wind shear of 5-10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 83 degrees F. The main inhibiting factor is probably 90L's very small size. Disturbances this small have trouble developing into tropical storms, since they are very fragile and require near-perfect environmental conditions. The storm does not have a perfect environment; visible satellite loops from this morning show a competing circulation a few hundred miles to the east of Barbados interfering with 90L's organization. Still, 90L does have a chance to develop, since wind shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots for the next three days over the Caribbean. However, wind shear increases dramatically just north of the Caribbean, so if 90L moves north of Puerto Rico, it will likely be quickly destroyed. Most of the models forecast a west-northwest track for 90L over the next few days. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic should expect to feel 90L's rain and winds on Friday and Saturday. It's possible 90L could develop into a 50 mph tropical storm by that time. It is very unlikely 90L will intensify into a hurricane. The most likely scenario is for 90L to remain a tropical disturbance, or become a tropical depression that never organizes into a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Hawaii
Residents of Hawaii should to continue watch an area of disturbed weather (now called 97C) near 8N, 167W, about 900 miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 1:23am EDT this morning showed a closed surface circulation, and some wind barbs of 40-45 mph to the south of the center. The thunderstorm activity has gotten more intense over the past day, but is still very disorganized. The system is currently under about 10 knots of winds shear, and is underneath an upper-level anticyclone. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 29C, and there is a very deep pool of warm water underneath to fuel intensification. These are all very favorable conditions for development. SSTs stay above 26C all the way to Hawaii, and a landfalling hurricane in the islands is a possibility a week or so from now. The 6Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model intensified 97C into a hurricane by Sunday. However, the more recent 12Z (8am) run did not develop 97C at all.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "97C".

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models continue to show the possibility of a low pressure system forming in the Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast early next week. This low will probably be non-tropical, though. The models are now less enthused about a new hurricane developing along the Pacific coast of Mexico and threatening Baja next week. Baja does not have to worry about Tropical Storm Norman, which dissipated last night, nor Tropical Depression Olivia, which is expected to dissipate Friday before reaching Baja.

I'll have an update later today if 90L or 97C show significant change.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1006 - 956

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

1006. HCW
11:15 AM GMT on October 14, 2006
GOM action

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.htmlLink
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
1005. refill
4:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
stupid ron5244.... talking about inmature... a racist....i dont care about your feelings about me.... its not your bussines my age...dont ever mention my name...
1004. Ron5244
2:14 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Posted By: refill at 2:10 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

I work too. I am a PharmD. Doctor in pharmacy.


And a disgraceful and immature one you are. My God, I thought you were my age.

Best of luck, refill.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
1003. moonlightcowboy
2:13 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
...okay, was on the third shift here last nite...when did we get 91L and where is it? and when will it be in the GOM?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29596
1002. Utah2Miami
2:12 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
pssst. there is a new blog up.
1001. hurricane23
2:10 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Here's another close-up view 90L...


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
1000. refill
2:10 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
I work too. I am a PharmD. Doctor in pharmacy. Can you understand that?? I dont need to wait for no one to give me something. Have a great day everyone. I will not waste my time with that kind of people in this blog. Sorry, Dr. Masters. The blog is really good. But with people like Ron5244 I have nausea...

Great day and hopes 90L wont affect any land including Puerto Rico and the US...
999. GoofOff
2:08 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
It appears that 90L is already calming down somewhat. Both 90L and 91L have some clockwise rotation around them as well as a fair amount of dry air. Even with favorable shear conditions, I think they are going to have a difficult time turning into much other than big rain storms with the typical wind gusts that come with them.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
998. Patrap
2:07 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
WOW..Regis just showed the impact & xplosion from yesterdays crash from a webcam shot..about a mile or two away.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
995. Gatorx
2:03 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Was directed to refill...but I will answer...yes I work...own my own accounting business...specialize in church and clergy tax accounting....not a rich bored housewife...just aspiring to be one.

LOVE TO WATCH TROPICAL WEATHER IN SPARE TIME>>>
994. Ron5244
2:03 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
lol, I wont even waste my time refill.

Have a great day.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
992. hurricane23
2:02 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Cloud tops have warmed over the past couple of hours but the NHC as of 5:30am states conditions appear somewhat favorable for a TD to form.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
991. Ron5244
2:00 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Posted By: Gatorx at 1:58 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

Anger management is in order today.....let me get back to you folks later...it is a beautiful day here in Florida and its time for my morning jog.


Whats goin' on, Gator? Don't work? Or are you just retierd?
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
990. Ron5244
1:59 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Posted By: refill at 1:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

Ricderr and Ron5244 you are a pair of morons and stupid people. Also, I really dont care if a hurricane affect you people. Pair of racists.... We dont need people like you monitoring our weather. Go to the hell!!!!!!!!!!


I take that as you're just begging for more trouble to spark because of your little comment. Get out of here trouble maker.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
988. Gatorx
1:58 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Anger management is in order today.....let me get back to you folks later...it is a beautiful day here in Florida and its time for my morning jog.
987. hurricane23
1:57 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Good morning,

I think 90L will temporarily move to the NW then it looks like if the GFDL is correct it should basically move straight W or even WSW in given time.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13640
986. Gatorx
1:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Oh OK thanks for clarifying...I can be dense sometimes.....besides ricderr doesn't need me to speak for him..he's a big boy.
984. Patrap
1:56 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Was chasing kitten out from under Trailer.,.they fast..Gm Selu..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
983. Ron5244
1:54 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
I just stated I understand it. I just didn't enjoy it.

But good try my friend.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
981. Gatorx
1:53 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
enjoy is different than understand...my friend.
980. Ron5244
1:52 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Posted By: Gatorx at 1:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

Apparently some do not understand ricderr's sense of humor....


No, apparently some do not enjoy ricderr's humor.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
979. Gatorx
1:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Apparently some do not understand ricderr's sense of humor....
978. Selu
1:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Thanks, Gator.
Now, I guess I need to quit kidding around and look at some of the older posts, because I have no idea what's going on today.

:^)
Member Since: February 5, 2004 Posts: 7 Comments: 312
977. Ron5244
1:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Posted By: ricderr at 1:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2006.

They'll both probaly end up as nothing more than a little TD, maybe a minimal tropical storm. (With a good chance they wont last for long)thank god for your help here ron...ok..puerto rico....and the other islands....go back to bed now...that rain...flooding...you don't need to worry about it.....as long as we're safe here in the good ole US...nothing else matters...ok....let's shut up shop....go home..bye for now..see you when there's a threat to us..no one else matters...you aint american..you aint nothin.....oops....do not drink strong coffee early in the morning


You honstetly think half the people in here are worried about Puetro Rico? Ha! Thats funny. You know why they're watching the invests? BECAUSE THE'RE HOPING THEY WILL THREATHEN THE U.S. Believe me. 75% of the people on here long for Tropical action.

And on the other hand, it isn;t a hurricane, isn't a tropical storm, isn't a tropical depression. Puerto Rico will survive just fine. People have more important things to worry about than if a rainstorm with affect Puetro Rico. I know that they'll be fine.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
976. Gatorx
1:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Selu...sorry to ignore you...Good morning.
975. Selu
1:46 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Dang, I know my name's mud when even Randrewl won't say good morning to me.

*pout*
Member Since: February 5, 2004 Posts: 7 Comments: 312
972. Ron5244
1:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2006



Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
971. nash28
1:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Rand- 91L appears to be in an area of 20-30kts of shear. I am amazed it is even alive.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
970. Gatorx
1:42 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Ricderr..mail call.
967. ricderr
1:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
They'll both probaly end up as nothing more than a little TD, maybe a minimal tropical storm. (With a good chance they wont last for long)thank god for your help here ron...ok..puerto rico....and the other islands....go back to bed now...that rain...flooding...you don't need to worry about it.....as long as we're safe here in the good ole US...nothing else matters...ok....let's shut up shop....go home..bye for now..see you when there's a threat to us..no one else matters...you aint american..you aint nothin.....oops....do not drink strong coffee early in the morning
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21444
966. Patrap
1:40 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
More thoughts from the local met on the GOM...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
964. Selu
1:39 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
G' morning, everyone.

:hi:
Member Since: February 5, 2004 Posts: 7 Comments: 312
963. nash28
1:38 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Yeah, looks like it will pop up and pop right back out in short order.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
961. nash28
1:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Rand- Did you notice the SHIPS forecast for 91L? Dissipates it after 48hrs.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
960. Patrap
1:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
91L ..lookout Spain!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
959. Ron5244
1:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Don't get to jumpy in your pants here people.

They'll both probaly end up as nothing more than a little TD, maybe a minimal tropical storm. (With a good chance they wont last for long)

So don't get all excited. You'll just wind up being moppey when you find out nothing will happen with them.

Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
957. Patrap
1:35 PM GMT on October 12, 2006
Plus an added bonus GOM hybrid maybe.Its gonna get busy here..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702

Viewing: 1006 - 956

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.